American soybean farmers are facing a crisis that’s putting the backbone of rural America to the test. As the 2025 harvest approaches, the nation’s 500,000 soybean growers are staring down a season with zero orders from China—historically their largest and most reliable customer. This drastic shift is sending shockwaves through the agricultural sector, threatening not just individual farm incomes but also the broader U.S. economy.
Caleb Ragland, a ninth-generation Kentucky farmer and the president of the American Soybean Association, sounded the alarm on September 9, 2025. In a TikTok video that quickly gained national traction, Ragland didn’t mince words: “Right now, we’re in a very dire situation.” He later told CNN, “China takes more of our soybeans than all other foreign customers combined,” underscoring the sheer scale of the problem. With 50% of U.S. soybeans destined for export and China accounting for a quarter of total demand, the absence of Chinese orders is unprecedented.
Normally, by early September, about one-third of the annual U.S. soybean sales to China would already be in the books. That’s roughly 8% to 9% of the entire crop. But this year, that number sits at zero, leaving millions of bushels without a buyer and farmers wondering if they’ll be able to make ends meet when the combines start rolling.
The financial stakes are staggering. Soybean prices have plummeted 40% from their highs three years ago, currently trading at around $10.10 per bushel for September contracts—well below the estimated production cost of $11.03 per bushel. Ragland’s own operation is facing $750,000 in losses, forcing him to rely on loans just to keep the farm afloat. “Right now we’re planting a crop that looks like it will be produced at a loss,” he told CNN. “By fall, when the soybeans are harvested and ready to sell, we’re gonna need a drastic improvement in our markets or it’s gonna get even tougher for farm families all across this country.”
It’s not just Ragland who’s feeling the pinch. “There’s not much room for error right now in the budgets,” he said, highlighting that the crisis touches every one of the half-million soybean farmers nationwide. The 2025 U.S. soybean crop is forecast at nearly 4.3 billion bushels, making it the sixth-largest harvest in history. But without Chinese demand, this bounty threatens to further depress prices and deepen the pain for rural America.
The ripple effects extend far beyond the farm gate. Agriculture is a powerhouse, contributing $9.5 trillion to the U.S. economy each year—about 18.7% of total national output. Soybean exports alone generate over 231,000 jobs, supporting manufacturing, transportation, and small businesses in rural communities across the country. “That trickles down to our rural communities. Our rural communities are a lot of folks across this country. And that impacts small business. That impacts just the whole infrastructure within our communities,” Ragland explained to CNN.
The roots of this crisis lie in the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, which have fundamentally reshaped the global soybean market. American soybeans now face a 20% retaliatory tariff in China, bringing the total duty rate to 34%—a steep disadvantage compared to South American competitors. China has responded by ramping up purchases from Brazil, which exported a record 15.7 million tons of soybeans to China in March 2025 alone. In 2024, Brazil supplied 71% of China’s total soybean imports, a dramatic increase that’s left U.S. farmers sidelined.
The American Soybean Association put it bluntly in an August 19 letter to President Trump: “China has contracted with Brazil to meet future months’ needs to avoid purchasing any soybeans from the United States.” The message is clear—unless the trade standoff is resolved, American farmers risk losing their most important customer for the long haul.
Despite his support for President Trump, Ragland has become increasingly vocal about the need for urgent action. “We desperately need to get something rectified quickly with China, our biggest export customer,” he urged in his CNN appearance. The administration, however, has so far called for patience. In August, President Trump signed an executive order extending the current tariff truce with China by 90 days, through November 10, 2025. But as reported by Fortune, this move primarily addresses broader trade issues rather than the specific agricultural concerns that are front and center for farmers.
The current situation echoes the bruising 2018-2020 trade war, when U.S. agriculture suffered $26 billion in losses—nearly $20 billion of which came from soybeans alone. Back then, soybeans accounted for 71% of all agricultural losses, a sobering reminder of just how vulnerable the sector is to international disputes.
The National Corn Growers Association reports that corn prices have also been hammered, falling more than 50% from their 2022 highs, while production costs have barely budged—down just 3%. It’s a one-two punch for American farmers, many of whom grow both crops and are now squeezed on all sides by low prices and high expenses.
As the harvest draws near, the clock is ticking. Unsold grain will soon fill up storage bins, putting even more downward pressure on prices. If no trade resolution emerges, farmers might be forced to sell at rock-bottom prices or pay costly storage fees to hold onto their crops through the winter. “We want to keep this nation strong. We’re the backbone of America,” Ragland declared, reflecting a sentiment shared by many in the heartland. He added, “We gotta make sure that we survive through these tough times.”
There are faint glimmers of hope on the diplomatic front. Under President Trump’s administration, the once-hostile stance toward China has softened somewhat, with officials now suggesting that Beijing can be tolerated as long as the U.S. benefits. There’s even talk of a possible meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea this October. Whether such a meeting delivers real relief for farmers remains to be seen.
For now, the fate of America’s soybean growers—and the rural communities they anchor—hangs in the balance. The next few months will determine whether this crisis becomes a turning point or another chapter in a long struggle for survival in the fields of the Midwest and beyond.
