Soybean fields in the American Midwest are usually buzzing with anticipation as harvest season approaches, but in September 2025, a heavy sense of anxiety hangs over the heartland. In Nebraska, Kentucky, Indiana, and beyond, farmers who once relied on China as their biggest customer are now staring down a crisis of historic proportions. The culprit? An escalating trade war between the United States and China that has left American soybeans without their most important buyer, sending shockwaves through rural economies and threatening the livelihoods of thousands.
“China has not bought a single export cargo of beans so far this year, which is not very typical,” Scott Thomsen, a fourth-generation farmer in Kennard, Nebraska, told ABC News. His words echo across the region, where the absence of Chinese demand has sent prices tumbling and left many wondering how they’ll make it through the season. According to the American Soybean Association, China imported more soybeans in the last five years than every other country combined, and before the 2018 trade war, about 60% of all U.S. soybean exports went to China.
But that relationship has unraveled. In retaliation for tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump’s administration, China has slapped its own duties on U.S. soybeans—now totaling up to 34%—and turned to South America, especially Brazil and Argentina, for its supplies. The shift has been dramatic. As the Associated Press reports, Brazilian beans accounted for more than 70% of China’s imports last year, while the U.S. share dropped to just 21%.
“This is a five-alarm fire for our industry,” said Caleb Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association, in an interview with the Associated Press. Ragland, who farms 4,500 acres in Magnolia, Kentucky, is deeply worried about the future. “Unless something changes soon, thousands of farmers may not survive.”
The numbers are staggering. In 2024, the U.S. exported nearly $24.5 billion worth of soybeans, with China accounting for over $12.5 billion of that total. Now, with Chinese purchases at a standstill since May 2025, those figures have plummeted. According to USDA data cited by Politico, all American agricultural exports to China were down 53% in the first seven months of 2025 compared to the same period last year.
The pain isn’t just financial. For many farmers, this crisis strikes at the core of their identity and way of life. “Agriculture is our foundation here in Nebraska and many states in the Midwest,” Don Schuller, a corn and soybean farmer, told ABC News. “If agriculture is failing here everything is going to fail.” John Hansen, president of the Nebraska Farmers Union, described the situation bluntly: “We’re in the middle of the worst economic downturn that I’ve seen in my 50 years.”
Political pressure is mounting. As the Trump administration faces calls from the farming community to resolve the standoff, the president has attempted to reassure his rural base. “I won 80%, 85% of the farmers. And I love them,” Trump said in June. “I’m never going to do anything to hurt our farmers.” In August, he urged China via social media to “quickly quadruple its soybean orders.” On Thursday, he told reporters at the White House that he hoped to use money raised from tariffs to “give it to our farmers,” though as of late September, the Department of Agriculture had not detailed a concrete aid plan.
Some farmers remain loyal to Trump’s broader goals, despite the immediate hardship. “I voted for him because I’d like to see manufacturing come back to this country. I’d like to see good paying jobs. I want to see everybody do better. And I think this is some short-term pain for a long-term gain,” Thomsen said to ABC News. Yet, as the months drag on, patience is wearing thin. “I don’t think anybody thought that we were going to take this much time,” said Darin Johnson, president of the Minnesota Soybean Growers Association, in comments to the Associated Press. “We were told 90 deals — 90 deals in 90 days.”
For many, government aid is seen as a last resort, not a solution. “The American farmer, especially myself included, we don’t want aid payments,” said Brian Warpup, a fourth-generation farmer from Warren, Indiana, to the Associated Press. “We want to work. We work the land, we harvest the land, the crop off the land. And the worst thing that we could ever want is a handout.”
Behind the scenes, both U.S. and Chinese officials have met multiple times—four rounds of trade talks between May and September 2025, according to the Associated Press—but no progress on soybeans has been reported. Chinese officials have made their position clear. “Regarding the trade of soybeans, the United States should take positive action to cancel the relevant unreasonable tariffs to create conditions for expanding bilateral trade,” Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson He Yadong told ABC News. Liu Pengyu, spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington, emphasized the mutual benefits of trade, urging the U.S. to work with Beijing.
Experts see China’s move as a calculated strategy. “It’s a repeat of Trump 1.0,” Marc Busch, a former adviser to the U.S. Trade Representative, told Politico. By targeting soybeans and other farm exports, China is leveraging its buying power to apply political pressure where it hurts most—the Midwest, a key Republican stronghold ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. “The Chinese want Trump to feel the pain by having U.S. farmers say ‘This guy is really costing us big time,’” said Harry Broadman, a former assistant U.S. trade representative, to Politico.
At the same time, China’s pivot to South America is part of a broader strategy to diversify its suppliers and reduce reliance on the U.S. “The supply lines are going to get solidified, and once they solidify, China will be like ‘Why would I deal with an American supplier when I can still get the same material from Brazil or Argentina?’” said Cameron Johnson, a partner at Tidalwave Solutions, to Politico. The longer the standoff lasts, the harder it will be for American farmers to regain lost ground.
In response, U.S. farmers are scrambling to find new markets. Jim Sutter, CEO of the U.S. Soybean Export Council, told the Associated Press that efforts are underway to boost exports to Japan, Indonesia, and Taiwan, which pledged to buy $10 billion worth of soybeans and other goods over the next four years. Domestic uses, like biodiesel production and animal feed, are also being ramped up. But as Iowa farmer Robb Ewoldt, a director with the United Soybean Board, put it, “We cannot replace a China in one shot. It’s not going to happen. We need to be realistic in that.”
Meanwhile, political tensions are further complicated by U.S. policy moves in Latin America, where China has increased its influence through trade and investment. As Politico notes, the Trump administration’s aid to Argentina—a soybean competitor—has drawn criticism from U.S. lawmakers like Senator Chuck Grassley, who questioned why the U.S. would help a rival while its own farmers suffer.
With another harvest upon them and no end in sight to the trade standoff, America’s soybean farmers are bracing for more uncertainty. As one industry representative told Politico, “[By the time there’s a deal], half our shipping window’s already gone. It’s past crunch time for our farmers, and we haven’t seen any movement to give us hope that there will be a resolution in time for us to actually ship anything to China.”
For now, the fields remain green, the combines roll on, and farmers—ever resilient—hope that their passion and perseverance will see them through yet another storm.
