When the world gathered in Belém, Brazil, for the COP30 climate conference in December 2025, the stage was set for a dramatic showdown between ambitious climate goals and the economic realities of energy politics. As the United States took a back seat, China stepped forward, flexing its climate diplomacy muscles and showcasing its dominance in the global clean energy supply chain. Meanwhile, Brazil, the conference’s host, found itself at the center of controversy following a decision to approve new oil exploration just weeks before the event—a move that sent ripples through environmental circles and global markets alike.
According to a recent survey commissioned by Chatham House and conducted by GlobeScan, the global appetite for clean technology is not just growing—it’s thriving. The survey, carried out in July and August 2025 across 33 countries and involving nearly 32,000 respondents, revealed that about half of consumers are at least somewhat likely to consider buying Chinese-made solar panels or electric vehicles (EVs). Even more striking, nearly 70% of those surveyed support their governments purchasing Chinese-made solar panels and wind turbines to some degree. This widespread support is not just theoretical. As Bernice Lee, Distinguished Fellow at Chatham House’s Environment and Society Centre, put it: “It’s not just theory anymore – solar and EVs are now winning hearts and minds, and most importantly, wallets.”
What’s driving this surge in support for Chinese clean technology? According to the survey, affordability and availability are key factors, especially in the Global South. Chris Aylett, Research Fellow at Chatham House, highlighted a clear divide: “Traditional Western perceptions of Chinese-manufactured products as poor quality are not shared in the Global South, where interest in buying Chinese-clean technology products is very high.” Respondents from sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America were the most likely to purchase, or support their governments purchasing, Chinese clean technology, while those in Europe and North America were more hesitant.
Generational differences also emerged. Millennials and Gen Z respondents showed a greater willingness to embrace Chinese-made clean technologies, while Baby Boomers remained more skeptical. The data suggests a shift in attitudes that could shape the future of global energy consumption. In eight countries surveyed in both 2024 and 2025, support for Chinese-made clean technology remained steady or even increased, with the largest jumps seen in the USA, South Africa, and Turkey. “The growth in positive perceptions of Chinese-made clean technology over the past year is remarkable,” Aylett observed. “While part of this may simply be due to the surge in availability, another explanation could possibly be the generally improved view of China as a source of certainty and stability, contrasted with the volatility of the US.”
But while China was basking in the glow of its clean tech leadership at COP30, Brazil was facing tough questions about its own energy policies. In October 2025, just weeks before COP30, Ibama—the federal environmental licensing agency—approved an oil exploration licence for Block 59, located off Brazil’s northern coast. The licence, awarded to state-owned Petrobras, authorizes the drilling of an offshore well to assess the presence of oil. If commercially viable reserves are found, further permits will be needed before production can begin. This decision followed years of debate and environmental scrutiny, as the exploration area lies in the Foz do Amazonas basin, one of the country’s most biodiverse regions.
The move sparked immediate backlash from environmentalists and civil society groups. Within days, eight Brazilian organizations, including the Climate Observatory, filed legal action alleging procedural flaws, lack of community consultation, and outdated data on biodiversity risks. Suely Araújo, public policy coordinator at the Climate Observatory and former Ibama president, criticized the process: “In the oil spill simulation carried out in August, Petrobras used outdated modelling from 2013, even though modelling from 2024 was already available. If Ibama itself considers that there is a need for a new model, it should not have granted this licence.”
Despite the outcry, both Petrobras and Ibama maintained that the licensing followed a rigorous, five-year environmental review. Ibama imposed 28 conditions on Petrobras’ activities, including a requirement to conduct a new oil spill simulation during drilling, with results to be published within a year.
Brazil’s economic motivations are hard to ignore. Over the past decade, Brazilian crude oil exports have soared by 132%, reaching nearly 90 million tonnes in 2024. China has emerged as the dominant buyer, importing more Brazilian oil than all other top ten countries combined, as reported by Dialogue Earth. Petrobras CEO Magda Chambriard described the company’s efforts as unlocking a “new global energy frontier,” potentially expediting licensing for other wells. The stakes are high: Brazil already ranks as the world’s sixth-largest oil producer and could climb to fourth place within the next decade if exploration in the equatorial margin proves fruitful.
Yet, the contradiction is hard to miss. At COP30, Brazil publicly reaffirmed its commitment to phasing out fossil fuels from the global economy. But at home, the government has allocated $18.8 billion more to oil and gas budgets than the previous administration, and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has made it clear that “no country is ready” to give up oil. Brazil also accepted an invitation to join OPEC+ in 2025, further cementing its role in the global oil market. Clarissa Lins, founding partner of the consultancy Catavento, summed up the dilemma: “It is very difficult to ask a country considered by the World Bank to be middle-income to give up this economic resource. The oil produced here is highly competitive, and the industry has a relevance that cannot be ignored.”
Petrobras, for its part, kept a low profile at COP30, sending only second-tier employees despite the record number of fossil fuel lobbyists in attendance. The company did, however, host two events in Brazil’s official pavilion, one coinciding with a massive Climate March that saw 70,000 people take to the streets of Belém to demand an end to oil exploration in the Amazon. Renata Prata, an environmental analyst at the Arayara International Institute, called this a “tactical choice,” noting that the event occurred just as civil society was making its voice heard.
As the dust settles from COP30, the tension between ambition and pragmatism remains unresolved. China’s clean tech juggernaut continues to win over consumers worldwide, while Brazil’s dual identity as a climate leader and oil exporter highlights the complex trade-offs facing countries on the front lines of the energy transition. The next chapter in this global story is sure to be just as contentious—and just as consequential.
