Polling stations across the Netherlands buzzed with activity on October 29, 2025, as 13.5 million eligible citizens turned out to cast their votes in a parliamentary election that international media quickly dubbed a "nail-biter." The day began early for some: in cities like Zwolle, Arnhem, and Castricum, a handful of polling places opened at midnight in venues as varied as student cafés, museums, and community centers, inviting early birds and eager voters alike to make their voices heard. By the time the last ballots were cast at 9:00 p.m., the nation was on edge, awaiting results that would signal not just the future of Dutch politics, but perhaps the broader direction of European democracy.
The stakes were high. With 1,166 candidates from 27 parties vying for 150 seats in the House of Representatives, no single party was expected to secure the 76 seats needed for an outright majority. As reported by BBC and Politico, the latest opinion polls painted a picture of a highly fragmented political landscape, with the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) led by Geert Wilders, the left-wing GreenLeft-Labour (GroenLinks-PvdA) alliance, and the centrist-liberal Democrats 66 (D66) all running neck and neck. Trailing closely behind were the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD).
Migration dominated the campaign, emerging as the top concern for Dutch voters. According to AL24 News, all major parties pledged to implement stricter asylum policies, a response to the worsening housing shortage that many attributed to migration. This debate gave a boost to the PVV and its leader Wilders, whose anti-immigration platform had propelled him to a landslide victory in 2023. Yet, as the New York Times observed, the 2025 election was widely seen as a "Referendum on the Far Right." Wilders, once the dominant force, now faced skepticism from rivals and voters alike, especially after he toppled his own coalition government just months earlier in a dispute over asylum policy.
As the day unfolded, foreign media outlets from the BBC to Germany's Tagesschau zeroed in on the uncertainty of the outcome and the likelihood of protracted coalition talks. Tagesschau noted that with over 15 parties expected to win seats, "even 20 percent of the vote would likely be enough to win the election, but far from enough to govern." The Dutch system of proportional representation, after all, all but guarantees coalition governments, and the memory of Wilders' short-lived coalition—brought down after just 11 months—was still fresh.
When the first Ipsos I&O exit polls were released shortly after voting closed, jaws dropped across the country. The centrist-liberal D66, led by 38-year-old Rob Jetten, was projected to secure a dramatic victory with 27 seats—two more than Wilders’ PVV, which was set to win 25. The centre-right VVD followed with 23 seats, and the GreenLeft-Labour bloc trailed with 20. For Jetten and his supporters, the mood was jubilant. As BBC reported, D66 supporters gathered in a music venue in Leiden, waving Dutch and European flags, chanting "yes, we can." Taking the stage, a beaming Jetten declared, "Millions of Dutch people have turned a page; they've said goodbye to a politics of negativity."
Jetten’s ascent was nothing short of remarkable. Just weeks before the election, polls had D66 languishing in fifth place with only 12 seats projected. Jetten’s campaign, marked by polished performances in televised debates and a memorable appearance on the popular quiz show "The Smartest Person," captivated voters eager for optimism and change. "It was a campaign of optimism, it shows the Dutch are tired of two years of standstill," said Eline, a D66 supporter, to BBC. "We recognize big challenges and we want progress on those."
The campaign’s central issues—migration and the chronic shortage of nearly 400,000 homes—were never far from the headlines. D66 promised to tackle the housing crisis by building 10 new cities, a bold pledge that resonated with a population of 18 million weary of overcrowded asylum centers and unaffordable rents. Yet Jetten was careful to strike a balance, telling voters in a televised debate that his party wanted to "rein in migration but also accommodate asylum-seekers fleeing war and violence." Addressing Wilders directly, he said, "Voters can choose again tomorrow to listen to your grumpy hatred for another 20 years, or choose, with positive energy, to simply get to work and tackle this problem and solve it."
For Wilders, the night was a setback. After leading the polls throughout much of the campaign, he found himself outflanked by a centrist surge. Wilders conceded the race, writing on social media, "The voter has spoken. We had hoped for a different outcome but we stuck to our guns." He remained defiant, however, telling his supporters, "You won't be rid of me until I'm 80." Political scientist Matthijs Rooduijn of the University of Amsterdam explained to BBC that Wilders’ party had lost support among moderates and the more radical right, as voters grew weary of political instability and coalition infighting.
The left-wing GreenLeft-Labour alliance, led by former European Commissioner Frans Timmermans, also suffered a blow. Once seen as a frontrunner, the bloc slipped to fourth place. "Of course I'm hugely disappointed," Timmermans told supporters, promising, "Better times lie ahead," before announcing he would step down and take responsibility for the result.
The Christian Democrats, meanwhile, enjoyed a resurgence. Projected to win 19 seats, up from near-oblivion just two years ago, CDA leader Henri Bontenbal celebrated with supporters, exclaiming, "What a fantastic result—two years ago we could not have dared to dream of this." Jetten, for his part, made clear that he sought a broad-based coalition, naming Labour-GreenLeft, VVD, and CDA as potential partners for a "stable and ambitious" government. As he told supporters, "We will do all we can in the coming years to show all the Dutch people that politics and government can be there for them again so they can think big again and act big again so the Netherlands can move forward."
International observers watched closely. With far-right parties gaining ground in Britain, France, and Germany, the Dutch result was seen as a bellwether. Sander Tordoir, chief economist at the Center for European Reform, warned, "Europe cannot afford another Dutch government that drifts and is absent in the European debate." The Netherlands, he noted, is a key player in the eurozone, and its engagement is vital for the single market, defense, and economic security.
As coalition talks loom, the Dutch electorate’s message is unmistakable: after years of polarization and political gridlock, there is a hunger for unity, optimism, and practical solutions. The coming weeks will determine whether Rob Jetten and his would-be partners can deliver on that promise—and whether the Netherlands, long a laboratory for European trends, will chart a new course for the continent’s politics.
