The fragile ceasefire in Gaza, brokered by the United States and now entering its third week, finds itself under mounting pressure as violence, political turmoil, and diplomatic maneuvering continue to shape the region’s uncertain future. On October 25 and 26, 2025, a flurry of developments underscored just how precarious the situation remains for both Israelis and Palestinians, as well as for the international actors trying to keep the peace.
According to the Associated Press, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio revealed that Israel, the United States, and other mediators involved in the ceasefire have been actively sharing intelligence to disrupt potential threats. This collaborative effort, Rubio said, allowed authorities to identify and prevent a possible Hamas attack last weekend. "We put out a message through State Department, sent it to our mediators as well, about an impending attack, and it didn’t happen," Rubio told reporters while traveling from Israel to Qatar. He emphasized that the goal is "ultimately to identify a threat before it happens."
Despite these efforts, the ceasefire has been anything but secure. As reported by Al Jazeera, Israeli attacks continued across Gaza on October 26, threatening the already shaky truce. One Palestinian was killed and several wounded in an attack on the Nuseirat camp in central Gaza—an area away from the main Israeli military presence. Meanwhile, Palestinians returning to their damaged homes face the grim hazards of collapsed buildings and unexploded ordnance, adding a layer of danger to their attempts at rebuilding.
The ceasefire, which took effect on October 10 after more than two years of war, has not only tested the limits of military restraint but has also exposed deep political fissures within Israel. According to AFP, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu now faces a crucial parliamentary vote with his governing coalition significantly weakened. The loss of an ultra-Orthodox party in July over military service exemption disputes left Netanyahu’s coalition with just 60 of 120 seats, stripping him of a clear majority. The resumption of Knesset business on October 20 signaled the return of high-stakes political bargaining and potential threats to the government’s survival.
Netanyahu’s acceptance of the U.S.-brokered truce has infuriated his far-right allies, who argue that Israel should maintain military control over all of Gaza and decisively crush Hamas. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir has threatened to break ranks if his bill for the death penalty for terrorists is not put to a parliamentary vote by November 9. The coalition also faces internal strife over ultra-Orthodox conscription and far-right demands for the annexation of the West Bank—a move strongly opposed by the Trump administration in Washington.
Despite these challenges, Netanyahu remains defiant. In a televised interview on October 18, he announced his intention to run in the next elections, which are legally required by October 2026 but could be called sooner if his coalition unravels. He appears assured of re-election as head of the Likud party by the end of November, facing no internal challengers, and polls continue to place his party in the lead despite widespread public dissatisfaction with the government.
On the streets, the sense of unfinished business is palpable. Tens of thousands of demonstrators gathered at Hostages Square in Israel on October 26, demanding the return of the 13 hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza. As reported by Israel Hayom, the deal that ended the recent war is only partially implemented. While Israel has fulfilled its obligations, Hamas and the agreement’s international sponsors have been slow to act, particularly on the critical issue of the hostages.
Hamas, meanwhile, is using the ceasefire period to regroup and strengthen its governance in Gaza, according to Israel Hayom. The group appears willing to cede some civilian responsibilities but shows no intention of disarming its military wing. Israeli officials raise these concerns daily with American diplomats, but Washington’s response has so far been limited to rhetoric. The U.S. insists on coordinating any significant Israeli military actions in advance, wary that Israel might use any incident as a pretext to resume full-scale hostilities.
The United States’ direct involvement in managing the Israeli-Palestinian conflict marks a historic shift. For decades, Israel resisted outside interference, preferring to negotiate directly with its neighbors. Now, as Israel Hayom points out, Washington has become a central player, with talks already underway about a possible two-state solution. President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance have publicly ruled out annexation of the West Bank and have even floated the idea of releasing Palestinian leader Marwan Barghouti from prison to lead the Palestinians in future negotiations.
Diplomatic efforts to stabilize Gaza are also underway. Secretary Rubio noted that several countries—including Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, Indonesia, and Azerbaijan—have expressed interest in joining an international stabilization force for Gaza. However, they require more details about the mission and its rules of engagement. The U.S. is considering a United Nations resolution to broaden participation in this force, potentially paving the way for a more robust international presence.
High-level U.S. engagement continues on multiple fronts. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Dan Caine, is set to travel to Israel next week, following recent visits by Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Trump adviser Jared Kushner—all aimed at bolstering the fragile ceasefire.
Beyond the immediate conflict, the United States is also flexing its foreign policy muscles elsewhere. The Trump administration recently imposed sanctions on Colombian President Gustavo Petro, his family, and a government member over alleged drug trade involvement. Rubio was quick to clarify that these measures target a "hostile foreign leader," not Colombia as a nation, and that tariffs were withheld to avoid harming the country’s economy. Colombian President Petro, for his part, decried the sanctions as a violation of the rule of law, asserting, "Their desperation will lead them to set traps for me. I’m ready to fight. For myself and for my people."
In Venezuela, the U.S. has ramped up military deployments in the region, ostensibly as part of a counterdrug operation. Rubio denied that these moves are aimed at ousting President Nicolás Maduro, who, in a national broadcast, accused Washington of fabricating a "vulgar, criminal and totally fake" narrative. "Venezuela is a country that does not produce cocaine leaves," Maduro insisted.
Meanwhile, U.S. policy toward China remains firm, with Rubio stressing that Taiwan will not be used as a bargaining chip in any trade negotiations during Trump’s upcoming Asia tour. "If what people are worried about is we’re going to get some trade deal or we’re going to get favorable treatment on trade in exchange for walking away from Taiwan—no one is contemplating that," Rubio said.
As the ceasefire in Gaza hangs by a thread, the region’s future remains uncertain—caught between the competing interests of local leaders, international stakeholders, and the ever-present threat of renewed violence. The coming weeks will reveal whether diplomacy and restraint can prevail, or whether the cycle of conflict will resume once more.
