After a brief period of hope, the fragile ceasefire in Gaza—heralded as a cornerstone of President Donald Trump’s new Middle East peace initiative—has been shattered by renewed violence, plunging the region into uncertainty and putting the United States at the center of a tense diplomatic balancing act. The events of October 19, 2025, have not only tested the resilience of the agreement but also set the stage for a critical 30-day window that U.S. officials say will determine the plan’s fate.
Just days before, on October 10, 2025, a ceasefire brokered by the Trump administration between Israel and Hamas took effect at noon local time. The deal, the first phase of a sweeping 20-point roadmap touted by President Trump, was lauded by many as a major diplomatic achievement. According to Axios, U.S. officials declared, “The next 30 days are going to be critical. We are now in charge of what’s going on in Gaza when it comes to the implementation of the deal. We are going to be calling the shots.” The White House made clear that American oversight would be ramped up, with the intention of keeping both sides in line and preventing the collapse of the agreement.
But the optimism proved short-lived. On October 19, the ceasefire unraveled when, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Hamas militants emerged from a tunnel in the Rafah area—still largely under Israeli control—and fired an anti-tank rocket at an IDF vehicle, killing two Israeli soldiers. In swift retaliation, the IDF launched approximately 100 airstrikes across Rafah and other parts of Gaza. Gaza’s Health Ministry, under Hamas control, reported at least 23 Palestinians killed in the strikes. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wasted no time in condemning the attack, declaring that Hamas had “violated the ceasefire” and vowing a “decisive response.”
In the immediate aftermath, Israel closed all checkpoints into Gaza and halted the flow of humanitarian aid—a move that drew international concern, given the territory’s already dire conditions. However, U.S. officials indicated that aid was expected to resume by Monday morning, seeking to prevent a total humanitarian collapse. The U.S. administration, according to UNN and Axios, had been warned of possible ceasefire violations and had anticipated that the transition period would be fraught with risk. “We knew this was brewing. And the longer these guys are allowed to attack each other, the more they’re going to attack each other,” a senior Trump administration official told Axios.
Hamas, for its part, denied any involvement in the Rafah incident. Its military wing stated, “We are not aware of any incidents or clashes taking place in the Rafah area, because these are zones under Israeli control, and contact has been severed with our groups that remained there.” The group reaffirmed its commitment to the ceasefire, casting doubt on Israel’s version of events and underscoring the deep mistrust that continues to plague efforts at reconciliation.
Despite the violence, U.S. and Israeli officials maintained close communication throughout the crisis. Israel notified the Trump administration in advance of its planned strikes through a U.S. command center set up to oversee the ceasefire’s implementation. Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, held a phone call with Israeli Minister Ron Dermer and other officials to coordinate next steps. According to Axios, the U.S. urged Israel to “respond proportionately but show restraint” and to focus on isolating Hamas while developing alternatives for Gaza’s future governance, rather than reigniting full-scale war.
The IDF, for its part, announced about an hour before press time that it had resumed compliance with the ceasefire. “In accordance with the directive of the political leadership, and following a significant series of strikes, the IDF will continue to enforce the ceasefire agreement and will respond forcefully to any violation of the agreement,” the IDF stated. This carefully worded announcement seemed intended to signal both resolve and a willingness to return to the terms of the peace plan, at least for now.
Observers note that the Trump administration’s 20-point plan, which was rolled out earlier in October, aims to end the long-running war between Israel and Hamas through a phased approach. Negotiations began almost immediately after its unveiling, and both sides signed the first phase of the agreement in what was widely seen as a diplomatic coup for the White House. Yet, as Axios and UNN both report, the situation remains “very fragile,” with both Hamas and Israel accused of actions that threaten the deal’s implementation. Israel, for example, has repeatedly threatened to suspend the agreement over what it describes as Hamas’s slow return of the bodies of dead hostages.
The stakes are high. U.S. officials have made clear that the coming month is make-or-break for the peace process. “The next 30 days will be decisive. Now we are responsible for what happens in Gaza in terms of implementing the agreement. We will make decisions,” a U.S. official told UNN, echoing the sense of urgency felt in Washington. The U.S. is expected to intensify its monitoring and, if necessary, intervene directly to keep the peace on track.
The diplomatic choreography has not gone unnoticed by regional leaders. Prime Minister Netanyahu has called on the IDF to take “decisive action against terrorist targets,” while also signaling a willingness to return to the ceasefire if Hamas complies. Meanwhile, Hamas has accused Israel of overreacting and insists it remains committed to the truce. The mutual accusations and denials highlight the deep divisions that still exist, even as both sides face mounting pressure from the U.S. to honor their commitments.
For the people of Gaza and southern Israel, the return to violence was a grim reminder of the region’s volatility. The temporary closure of checkpoints and suspension of aid deliveries have exacerbated fears of a humanitarian crisis, while the resumption of airstrikes has shattered any sense of normalcy that the ceasefire may have brought. Yet, with the U.S. now pledging even greater oversight and diplomatic engagement, there remains a narrow window for salvaging the agreement.
As the dust settles over Rafah and the world watches anxiously, the next month will reveal whether Trump’s peace plan can survive its first major test—or whether the cycle of violence will once again drown out the promise of peace in Gaza.
