Canadian politics rarely lacks for drama, but this week’s budget showdown in Ottawa took the tension up a notch, with the fate of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s minority Liberal government hanging by the thinnest of threads. On the evening of November 17, 2025, Members of Parliament cast their votes on a confidence motion that would determine whether Carney’s first federal budget—and indeed his government—would survive. In the end, it came down to a razor-thin margin: 170 MPs in favor, 168 against, and four crucial abstentions that tipped the balance just enough to stave off a winter election.
According to The Canadian Press, the vote capped off weeks of political maneuvering, speculation, and not a little bit of anxiety on Parliament Hill. Carney, who was elected in the spring with promises to end U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff war, found himself leading a minority government—always a precarious position in Canadian politics. The Liberals needed every bit of support they could muster to pass their signature budget, and for a while, it seemed like the country could be headed back to the polls just six months after the last election.
So, how did the Liberals pull off this last-minute save? The answer lies in a mix of political calculation, unexpected abstentions, and a critical pledge on climate change. Two New Democratic Party (NDP) MPs, Lori Idlout and Gord Johns, and two Conservative MPs, Shannon Stubbs and Matt Jeneroux, abstained from voting. That decision, as reported by CBC News, reduced the number of votes needed for the government to eke out a win. Speaker Francis Scarpaleggia, who presides over the House of Commons and only votes in the case of a tie, was not required to intervene—but had just two of those abstaining MPs voted against the budget, he could have been called to break a deadlock.
The reasons for abstaining varied. NDP interim leader Don Davies explained to reporters that while his party opposed the budget, they were just as opposed to plunging the country into another election so soon. “The consequences of defeating this budget would not be to improve it or to help Canadians. It would be to plunge the country into an election only months after the last one,” Davies said. “We have decided to put the interests of our country first—to vote against the budget but to help prevent an election.”
On the Conservative side, the abstentions were a bit more dramatic. Matt Jeneroux, an Alberta MP, had announced earlier in November his intention to resign, citing a desire to spend more time with family (and swirling rumors that he might be considering a switch to the Liberals). Shannon Stubbs, also from Alberta, was absent due to recovery from major jaw and chin surgery, her spokesperson confirmed.
But perhaps the most pivotal move came just hours before the vote, when Green Party Leader Elizabeth May switched her position. As reported by The Canadian Press, May had previously said she could not support the budget due to concerns about environmental policy. That changed after Carney made a direct, public commitment in the House of Commons: “We will respect our Paris commitments for climate change and we’re determined to achieve them.” The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, calls on countries like Canada to limit emissions and keep global warming well below two degrees Celsius, with a 2030 target to cut emissions to 40 percent below 2005 levels. May told reporters, “Against what I had expected to say to you today, I’m going to vote yes.”
With May’s support secured, the Liberals gained just enough breathing room. The final tally—170 in favor, 168 against—meant that the government would live to fight another day. All Liberal MPs and May supported the budget, while the Conservatives, Bloc Québécois, and the rest of the NDP caucus voted no. The Bloc’s opposition focused on issues important to Quebec and seniors, while the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, hammered away at the budget’s projected C$78 billion (US$55.3 billion) deficit. Poilievre derided the plan as a “credit card budget,” warning, “The Prime Minister’s costly deficit gambles our future on the national credit card.” He argued the budget failed to address the cost-of-living crisis, and that piling on more debt would only fuel inflation and make life harder for ordinary Canadians.
Despite the criticism, Carney defended his fiscal plan as a “generational investment” designed to strengthen Canada’s economy in the face of global uncertainty and U.S. trade threats. The budget proposes C$140 billion in new spending over five years, targeting infrastructure, housing, military investments, and the government’s Major Projects Office, which is tasked with launching new “nation-building” initiatives. There are also incentives for liquified natural gas (LNG) and clean-energy projects, aiming to open new trade corridors beyond the U.S. market. In a bold move to balance these outlays, Carney’s plan includes a 10% reduction in the federal workforce—about 40,000 positions—achieved through attrition, buyouts, and some outright cuts. This proposal has drawn sharp criticism from public sector unions, who warn it could slow government operations and erode services.
The budget also calls for a reduction in the number of temporary residents, such as international students and foreign workers, and outlines a path to remove the previous government’s emissions cap—a policy strongly opposed by Western Canadian leaders and the oil and gas industry. On the social front, the plan makes permanent the national school food program, continues federal dental care, creates a Youth Climate Corps, and increases spending on affordable housing.
The political drama didn’t end with the budget’s passage. In the weeks leading up to the vote, Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont crossed the floor from the Conservatives to the Liberals, citing dissatisfaction with Poilievre’s “negative” style of politics. “The Liberal budget hits the priorities of my constituents,” d’Entremont said, adding to the sense of shifting allegiances in a Parliament where every vote counts. The NDP, meanwhile, faced its own internal struggles. With no permanent leader and $23 million in campaign debt, the party was in no shape to fight another election, further explaining its strategic abstentions.
For now, Carney’s government has bought itself time—time to govern, to implement its ambitious plans, and perhaps to convince more Canadians that its “generational investment” is worth the cost. Whether this narrow victory marks a turning point or just a temporary reprieve remains to be seen, but for one tense evening in November, the Liberals survived to fight another day.
