California is plunging headfirst into a redistricting battle that could reshape not only its own congressional landscape but also the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives. In a move that has sparked fierce debate, the California Legislature passed the so-called “Election Rigging Response Act” on August 21, 2025, setting the stage for a high-stakes special election this November that could temporarily hand politicians the power to redraw congressional district lines—something voters had previously entrusted to an independent commission.
The measure, which cleared the Assembly 57 to 20 and the Senate 30 to 8 along party lines, is a direct response to actions taken by Texas Republicans earlier this summer. According to LAist, President Donald Trump urged Texas lawmakers to redraw their state’s congressional maps, aiming to lock in a Republican advantage before the 2026 midterms. Texas’s new maps, expected to add five GOP seats, are widely seen as an attempt to secure their slim House majority, currently standing at 219-212.
Governor Gavin Newsom, determined not to let California sit idly by, initiated the Golden State’s own redistricting gambit. “We’re not going to roll over, and we’re going to fight fire with fire,” Newsom declared at a recent press conference, as reported by LAist. The plan would allow California to use new, legislatively drawn maps for the 2026, 2028, and 2030 congressional elections, temporarily interrupting the usual decennial redistricting process based on the U.S. Census. After 2030, the independent commission would resume its role.
But there’s a catch: the measure only takes effect if another state, like Texas, implements its own mid-cycle redistricting and California voters approve the plan in a statewide special election on November 4, 2025. The proposal’s impact would be especially pronounced in Southern California districts represented by Ken Calvert (Riverside), Derek Tran (L.A. and Orange County), and Dave Min (Orange County), among others.
The political stakes are enormous. Newsom and his allies argue the move is a necessary countermeasure to Republican efforts elsewhere. “We’re responding to what occurred in Texas—we’re neutralizing what occurred and we’re giving the American people a fair chance,” Newsom said, according to The Hill. He insisted that if everyone played by the same rules, “there’s no question the Republican Party will be the minority party in the House of Representatives next year.”
Not surprisingly, the proposal has ignited fierce partisan passions. Nearly 70% of Democratic voters support the redistricting measure, while 72% of Republicans are firmly opposed, according to a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies (IGS) poll conducted in mid-August for the Los Angeles Times. The poll, which surveyed 4,950 registered voters, found that 48% would vote yes, 32% no, and 20% remain undecided. Among regular voters—those who’ve cast ballots in at least five of the last seven statewide elections—support climbs to 55% in favor and 34% against.
“That’s not bad news,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, in an interview with the Los Angeles Times. “It could be better. With ballot measures, you’d like to be comfortably above 50% because you got to get people to vote yes and when people are undecided or don’t know enough about initiatives, they tend to vote no just because it’s the safer vote.”
The poll also revealed deep uncertainty among key demographics. Nearly a third of Latino, Black, and Asian voters are undecided on the measure, as are 25% of women compared to 14% of men. Younger voters, those aged 18 to 29, show higher rates of indecision (about a third) compared to just 11% among those over 65. Even among Democrats, one in five remains on the fence, and a quarter of voters with no party preference haven’t made up their minds.
Critics of the measure argue it undermines the state’s voter-approved independent redistricting commission and represents a partisan power grab. “We can’t afford to put our state’s democracy on the line during a time of national instability,” said Darius Kemp, executive director of Common Cause, in a press release. Though the group later softened its opposition, it remains wary. All nine Republican members of California’s congressional delegation signed a joint statement condemning the plan, and Assemblymembers Suzette Valladares and Kate Sanchez, Republican co-chairs of the California Hispanic Caucus, called it a “direct attack on millions of Californians’ right to fair representation.”
Former President Barack Obama has endorsed the measure, while former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, a moderate Republican, told the New York Times he would fight it. The proposal has also drawn legal challenges. California Republicans filed a lawsuit with the state Supreme Court claiming Democrats violated the state constitution by rushing the bill through the Legislature. The high court rejected the case, but further legal battles are likely as November approaches.
Meanwhile, U.S. Representative Kevin Kiley of California’s 3rd District has introduced federal legislation to prohibit mid-cycle redistricting nationwide. If successful, it would nullify both Texas’s and California’s efforts, as well as any similar moves in other states.
Beyond the policy, the redistricting fight has become a referendum on Newsom’s political strategy and his willingness to take on Trump. According to the UC Berkeley poll, Newsom’s approval rating has ticked up to 51%, with 43% disapproving. “People want him to take on President Trump,” DiCamillo told The Hill. “Most think this is a role he should be playing and it’s improving his overall ratings.” A majority of respondents—59%—back Newsom’s combative stance toward Trump, while 29% want a more cooperative approach, the Los Angeles Times reported. Among younger voters, support for Newsom’s approach soars to 71%.
Matt Lesenyie, a political science professor at Cal State Long Beach, noted that Newsom’s national profile has risen during the battle over congressional maps, buoyed by his frequent social media sparring with Trump. “If he keeps this pace up, he’s right on a pressure point,” Lesenyie said. Eric Schickler, co-director of the Berkeley Institute, observed, “Voters don’t trust politicians. On the other hand, voters see Trump and don’t like what he’s doing. And so it was really a test to see which of those was more powerful and the results suggest, at least for now, Newsom’s winning that argument.”
Yet, the path to victory is far from clear. DiCamillo cautioned that undecided voters often default to “no” on ballot measures, making the campaign’s task a “heavy lift.” The special election, estimated to cost $235 million, is itself a point of contention, with critics highlighting the price tag as another reason to oppose the measure.
As the November 4 election draws near, Californians are being urged to check their voter registration status and prepare for what could be a defining moment in the state’s political history. Whether the measure passes or fails, the outcome will reverberate far beyond California’s borders, shaping not just the state’s congressional delegation but potentially the fate of the U.S. House itself.
With both sides gearing up for a bruising campaign, the battle over California’s congressional maps looks set to become one of the most closely watched political stories of 2025.
