California’s political landscape is once again the center of a fierce national debate, as Proposition 50—the state’s latest redistricting measure—heads toward a pivotal vote. With just weeks to go, the battle lines have been drawn not just between Democrats and Republicans, but within the parties themselves, exposing deep rifts and long-standing grievances over who should control the drawing of legislative districts. The stakes? The future of political power in the nation’s most populous state and, perhaps, a ripple effect on the broader fight against gerrymandering across the United States.
According to a recent Emerson College Polling survey released on September 19, 2025, more than half of California voters—specifically, 51%—said they support Governor Gavin Newsom’s redistricting plan, known as Proposition 50. The measure would allow the state Legislature to bypass the independent redistricting commission, a system that’s been in place since 2008. Thirty-four percent of voters opposed the measure, while 15% remained undecided as of the poll conducted September 15-16. The poll, which surveyed 1,000 active registered voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
This support for Proposition 50 comes at a time when Newsom’s approval rating has seen a modest uptick, rising to 46% from 44% the previous month, according to the same Emerson poll. Delving deeper, the numbers reveal a strong correlation between support for the measure and approval of the governor: 74% of those backing Proposition 50 approve of Newsom’s job performance, while 82% of those opposed to the measure disapprove of his leadership. As Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, put it, "Among voters who plan to vote in favor of Proposition 50, 74% approve of the job Governor Newsom is doing in office. Of those who oppose the measure, 82% disapprove of the job Newsom is doing."
But the path to this moment has been anything but straightforward. The redistricting debate in California is deeply intertwined with the national struggle over gerrymandering, as both parties seek to secure their foothold in Congress. Newsom and California Democrats have pushed ahead with their plan as Republicans in states like Missouri and Texas have adopted new congressional maps designed to give their party more seats in upcoming elections. The urgency is palpable, with Democrats arguing that they cannot "unilaterally disarm" in the face of aggressive Republican redistricting elsewhere.
That argument, however, has drawn accusations of hypocrisy from the Republican campaign against Proposition 50. GOP strategists are preparing to target some of California’s most prominent Democrats—including Senator Alex Padilla and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi—over their previous resistance to independent line-drawing. Both Padilla and Pelosi donated to defeat a 2010 measure that expanded the power of California’s independent redistricting commission, and Pelosi opposed the measure in part because it required equal power sharing between Republicans and Democrats on the panel.
Jessica Millan Patterson, former California GOP chair and head of the Republican campaign committee, told POLITICO, "They have always wanted the power to lie with the politicians. We’re absolutely going to be talking about their record on this." The Republican strategy is to motivate their base by casting Democratic leaders as opportunists, while also reaching out to persuadable independents and Democrats by highlighting the shifting positions of figures like Pelosi and Padilla.
For her part, Pelosi has recently stated that she believes California’s independent commission should regain control after 2030, as Proposition 50 itself stipulates. When pressed about the Republican campaign’s tactics, a Pelosi spokesperson pointed to her past statements: Democrats, they argue, cannot "unilaterally disarm" when facing Republican gerrymandering in states like Texas. Padilla, meanwhile, has introduced legislation with Representative Zoe Lofgren to end partisan gerrymanders nationwide, responding directly to Republican efforts to redraw House seats in a way that could cost Democrats as many as five seats.
Padilla summed up the Democratic position in a recent statement: "Californians have been at the forefront of reforms to protect and strengthen our democracy, but our fears have come true—Republicans will try to rig the system in a desperate effort to cling to power." These words underscore the existential stakes many Democrats see in the current fight, as they seek to counter what they view as a coordinated national effort to undermine fair representation.
At the same time, the campaign against Proposition 50 is being fueled by significant financial firepower. Republican megadonor Charles Munger Jr. has spent more than $30 million since August 2025 to defeat the measure, funding campaigns aimed at persuading not just Republican voters but also independents and Democrats. Munger, who played a key role in creating California’s independent redistricting commission two decades ago, has reemerged as a major player in the state’s political arena, driven by concerns about a return to partisan gerrymandering.
The influx of money isn’t limited to the opposition. On the other side, progressive megadonor George Soros has contributed $10 million to boost Newsom’s redistricting campaign—the single largest donation for Proposition 50 to date, as reported by The New York Times. Labor unions, national Democratic PACs, and wealthy liberals have together contributed well over $30 million to the effort, making this one of the most expensive and high-stakes ballot fights in California’s recent history.
Not everyone is picking a side. The California Chamber of Commerce, a powerful business lobbying group, has announced it will remain neutral on Proposition 50. For many multinational companies operating in the state, the calculation is simple: maintain influence with California Democrats while not alienating supporters of former President Donald Trump. The chamber’s neutrality may help it avoid getting crosswise with either party in a highly polarized environment.
Public opposition to Proposition 50 has also come from notable figures outside the current party leadership. Former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who championed the independent commission during his time in office, warned Democratic leaders during a recent discussion at the University of Southern California not to "become Trump" in their efforts to push back on Republican redistricting. "I mean, two bad behaviors don’t make a right behavior. Two wrongs don’t make a right," Schwarzenegger cautioned. Yet, according to the Emerson College poll, Schwarzenegger’s opposition "makes no difference" to 66% of California voters, with only 22% saying it made them more likely to support the measure and 12% less likely.
As the campaign intensifies, both sides are doubling down on their core messages. For Democrats, the fight is about protecting democracy and countering Republican gerrymandering elsewhere. For Republicans and their allies, it’s about keeping politicians from consolidating power and preserving the independent commission that was meant to take the partisan sting out of California politics.
With tens of millions of dollars pouring in, high-profile endorsements and opposition, and a deeply divided electorate, the outcome of the Proposition 50 vote will reverberate far beyond California’s borders. As voters prepare to decide, the debate over who should draw the lines—and who ultimately holds power—remains as contentious and consequential as ever.
