Voters in Caerphilly, a town long considered a Labour stronghold, turned out in force on October 23, 2025, for a by-election that many observers have described as a potential turning point in Welsh politics. The contest for the Senedd seat—vacated after the death of Labour politician Hefin Wyn David—has drawn national attention, with parties across the spectrum vying for a result that could reshape the political landscape not only in Wales but also across the United Kingdom.
Labour has held the Caerphilly seat since the devolved Welsh parliament was established in 1999, and the wider area has boasted a Labour MP since 1918. But this year, things felt different. According to polling reported by The Sun, Reform UK surged ahead with 42% support, closely followed by Plaid Cymru at 38%. Labour, once dominant, was trailing far behind with just 12%—a dramatic reversal that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.
Polling stations opened at 7am and closed at 10pm, with results expected in the early hours of October 24. The significance of the outcome was not lost on anyone. As The Guardian noted, the result is widely seen as a bellwether for the Senedd election coming up in May 2026, and the victorious party will likely use it as a springboard for broader ambitions.
The stakes for Labour could hardly be higher. The party, while still the largest in the Senedd, no longer commands a majority. The upcoming Welsh government budget vote, scheduled for January 2026, is already shaping up to be contentious. Labour needed support from an opposition member to pass its last budget in March, and a loss in Caerphilly could make the next round even more fraught. As The Guardian observed, the pressure on Labour’s campaign has intensified given these high stakes.
The contest drew a crowded field of candidates, reflecting the diversity of political opinion in the constituency and the high level of interest from parties hoping to capitalize on Labour’s apparent vulnerability. Reform UK’s candidate, Llyr Powell, was announced with great fanfare by party figurehead Nigel Farage in September. Farage, never one to shy away from a bold statement, declared at a press conference, “Today is the day to end 100 years of Labour rule in Caerphilly.” Powell himself called on voters to “vote for a better future,” urging them to “bring money back to Caerphilly” and “put your family and friends first.”
Plaid Cymru, meanwhile, fielded Lindsay Whittle, a well-known local councillor and leader of the group on Caerphilly council. The party’s leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, made a direct appeal to voters: “Vote for Lindsay Whittle in Caerphilly today to keep Reform out and elect a strong local champion who will always stand up for your community.”
Labour’s candidate, Richard Tunnicliffe, brought experience as a financial analyst and publisher, but faced the daunting task of rallying supporters in the face of declining poll numbers and a restive electorate. Other candidates included Gareth Potter for the Conservatives, Gareth Hughes for the Greens, Anthony Cook for Gwlad (a pro-independence party), Steve Aicheler for the Liberal Democrats, and Roger Quilliam for Ukip. The sheer number of contenders underscored just how competitive the race had become.
The by-election was called following the death of Hefin Wyn David, who had represented Caerphilly since 2016. An inquest into his passing is scheduled for April 2026, but for now, the focus remained squarely on the political battle unfolding in his former seat.
Recent polling and on-the-ground sentiment suggested a dramatic shift in the political winds. As The Sun reported, Reform UK’s surge was particularly striking, with the party not only leading the polls but also capturing the imagination of voters who, for generations, had backed Labour almost by default. The contest between Reform and Plaid Cymru was shaping up to be a close one, with Labour at risk of being relegated to third place—a symbolic blow for a party that has long prided itself on its Welsh roots.
According to The Guardian, the outcome in Caerphilly is likely to be studied closely by all parties as a predictor of what might happen in the Senedd elections next May. For Labour, a poor showing would expose deep fractures in its traditional heartlands and raise tough questions about its ability to maintain its grip on Welsh politics. For Reform UK and Plaid Cymru, a strong performance could signal the start of a new era, with the potential to reshape not just local politics but also the balance of power in Cardiff Bay and beyond.
The contest also played out against the backdrop of broader national debates. With the next Welsh government budget looming, every seat in the Senedd counts. If Labour loses Caerphilly, its ability to pass legislation and govern effectively could be seriously undermined. As The Guardian pointed out, the last budget required cross-party support, and the next could prove even more challenging if the party’s numbers dwindle further.
The messaging from the main contenders was clear and direct. Reform UK’s Llyr Powell made an emotional appeal to local pride and economic renewal, while Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle emphasized community representation and the importance of keeping Reform at bay. Labour, for its part, tried to rally its traditional base, but the polling numbers suggested that many voters were looking for something new.
For the people of Caerphilly, the by-election was more than just a local contest—it was a referendum on the direction of Welsh politics. Would they stick with the party that had represented them for over a century, or would they take a chance on a new voice, whether Reform UK’s populism or Plaid Cymru’s local champion?
As the polls closed and the counting began, one thing was certain: the result in Caerphilly would echo far beyond the town’s boundaries. The outcome could mark the beginning of a seismic shift in Welsh and even UK politics, or it could serve as a wake-up call for a Labour Party facing challenges on multiple fronts. Either way, all eyes were on Caerphilly as it awaited the dawn and the announcement of a result that could change the course of history in Wales.
In a contest shaped by tradition, ambition, and the winds of change, the people of Caerphilly found themselves at the very heart of a political drama with implications for the entire nation. The coming days would reveal whether the town had chosen continuity or change—and what that choice would mean for the future of Wales.
