In the Welsh town of Caerphilly, anticipation is reaching a fever pitch as voters prepare for what many are calling the most consequential by-election in Wales in decades. Set for October 23, 2025, this contest will determine a new representative for the Senedd, the Welsh Parliament, following the sudden and tragic death of Hefin David. But this is no ordinary local race—its outcome could reverberate far beyond the valleys of South Wales, shaping the future of Welsh politics and even influencing the nation’s relationship with Westminster.
For generations, Caerphilly has been a Labour fortress. The party has held sway at both the Senedd and Westminster levels, rarely facing serious threats from rivals. But according to WalesOnline, that dominance is now under unprecedented pressure, with recent polling predicting Labour’s vote share could plummet from a commanding 40% in the 2021 Senedd election to a mere 14% this year. Plaid Cymru, long the voice of Welsh nationalism, is projected to take the lead, with the insurgent Reform UK party running a close second. The stakes are high: this by-election is widely seen as a litmus test for whether the winds of political change sweeping across Wales are more than just a passing breeze.
The field is crowded, with eight candidates vying for the seat. They range from seasoned political veterans to first-time hopefuls, each bringing their own perspectives—and baggage—to the campaign. Among them is Steve Aicheler of the Liberal Democrats, who has built his campaign around the theme of “care” and floated the idea of a temporary tax increase to fund social care. Anthony Cook, representing Gwlad, draws on his family’s mining heritage and local connections, while Gareth Hughes of the Green Party touts his decades of experience as a journalist, educator, and housing campaigner.
Gareth Potter, the Conservative candidate, is a self-proclaimed “dark horse” who, despite never having won an election himself, is determined to make a difference for Caerphilly’s high streets and schools. Roger Quilliam of UKIP, just 22 years old, is running on a platform of abolishing the Senedd altogether, arguing that “the people of Caerphilly deserve a unionist voice.”
But it’s Llyr Powell of Reform UK who has captured much of the attention—and controversy. According to Nation.Cymru, Powell is viewed as the front-runner, and if elected, would become the first Reform UK member to sit in the Senedd. Powell’s rise reflects a broader surge in support for Reform UK, fueled by dissatisfaction with Labour’s record and a hunger for political change. Yet the party has also come under fire for its stance on immigration and alleged links to Russian influence at the highest levels. Byline News and Nation.Cymru have both reported concerns about Russian connections within Reform’s leadership, raising uncomfortable questions about foreign interference in Welsh politics.
The campaign has not shied away from tough topics. At a debate held on October 16, 2025, the NHS, local library closures, and immigration dominated the discussion. But the most memorable moment came when a local woman confronted Powell directly, saying, “I have never felt so unwelcome in my own home town as I do since your party came into Caerphilly. I have to say to my sons please don’t go there, please don’t do this and quite frankly Mr Powell I blame you for that.” Powell denied using the term “overtaking” to describe immigration’s impact, but the exchange highlighted the deep divisions—and raw emotions—that have defined this race. As BBC News noted, it was a member of the public, not a rival politician, who delivered the most stinging rebuke to Reform’s approach.
Immigration, though largely a non-devolved issue, has become a flashpoint in the by-election, with Reform UK credited for making it resonate locally. Many voters, even those not directly affected, express concerns about illegal immigration, reflecting national anxieties that have filtered down to the community level. The debate also exposed the challenges facing Labour, whose candidate Richard Tunnicliffe admitted the party is “fighting against change and unpopularity” after 26 years in power. Tunnicliffe, a book publisher by trade, carries the legacy of his predecessor Hefin David but is candid about the obstacles ahead, especially as the council faces a high-profile legal battle over library closures.
Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle, a political stalwart with more than five decades of experience, has used his campaign to champion local housing and criticize both the current administration’s handling of the NHS and the “silly” rules that keep homes empty. He’s also pushed back against some of the more sensational narratives about immigration’s impact on Caerphilly, arguing for a more nuanced approach. Meanwhile, the Greens’ Gareth Hughes and the Lib Dems’ Steve Aicheler have advocated for new taxes—wealth and income, respectively—to address social care and public services, even as they acknowledge the limits of the Senedd’s powers.
Underlying all of this is a sense of political malaise. For years, Welsh elections have been marked by low turnout and a feeling that the outcomes were all but predetermined. As Ben Wildsmith wrote for Nation.Cymru, “the democratic detachment of Wales in general elections, and the rubber-stamping of a one-party state in our devolved democracy has created a political scene that is characterised by complacency.” But this by-election, he argues, is different. “If you are registered to vote on Thursday, for once, your participation will have genuine consequences.”
The outcome could have immediate and far-reaching effects. Should Labour lose, its ability to pass the Welsh government’s budget would be further imperiled, possibly forcing it to seek deals with rivals like the Welsh Conservatives or the lone Liberal Democrat. The by-election is also the last to be held under the current first-past-the-post system and existing constituency boundaries; sweeping electoral reforms are set for the 2026 Senedd election, with more seats and a new voting system that could upend the political landscape once again.
For Reform UK, victory would be more than symbolic. As Nation.Cymru notes, it would “publicise and legitimise the party’s offering in next May’s elections, opening up the possibility of it becoming the largest group in the Senedd.” Critics warn that the party’s economic policies—once touted as bold solutions for working people—have already been watered down, with a promised increase in the income tax threshold now described by leader Richard Tice as merely an “aspiration.” Opponents fear that Reform’s rise could pave the way for deeper privatization and a rollback of devolution, especially if UK-wide political tides turn in their favor.
As Caerphilly’s voters head to the polls, the nation is watching closely. This is not just a contest for local bragging rights, but a referendum on the future of Welsh governance, identity, and democracy itself. For once, the eyes of Wales—and perhaps the world—are fixed on a single valley town, waiting to see which way the wind will blow.
