Voters in Caerphilly headed to the polls today, October 23, 2025, to elect a new Member of the Senedd (MS) in a by-election that has drawn national attention and could have significant implications for Welsh politics. The by-election was triggered by the sudden and untimely passing of Labour MS Hefin David in August, at just 47 years old, ending his service to the constituency that began in 2016. As the polls opened at 7am and are set to close at 10pm, the sense of anticipation and uncertainty is palpable—not just in Caerphilly, but across Wales.
According to the Caerphilly Observer, this by-election marks a pivotal moment for the constituency, as voters choose from eight candidates representing a broad spectrum of political perspectives. The candidates are: Steve Aicheler (Welsh Liberal Democrats), Anthony Cook (Gwlad), Gareth Hughes (Wales Green Party), Gareth Potter (Welsh Conservatives), Llŷr Powell (Reform UK), Roger Quilliam (UKIP), Richard Tunnicliffe (Labour), and Lindsay Whittle (Plaid Cymru).
This election is being held on the 2021 constituency boundaries, not the updated ones used in the 2024 UK general election. As explained by Nation.Cymru, this has led to confusion among some residents about their eligibility to vote. For instance, residents in Maesycwmmer, who participated in the 2024 general election, are not eligible to vote in this by-election because their area is now represented in a different Senedd seat under the old boundaries. Caerphilly County Borough Council has published a detailed list of wards eligible to vote, including Aber Valley, Bargoed (excluding Aberbargoed), Bedwas and Trethomas, Gilfach, Hengoed, Llanbradach, Machen and Rudry, Morgan Jones (Caerphilly), Nelson, Penyrheol, St Cattwg, St Martins, Van, and Ystrad Mynach.
As BBC News reports, the by-election fills the vacancy only until May 2026, when a Wales-wide election will reshape the Senedd under a new proportional representation system and expanded membership—96 members, up from the current 60. The next election will use so-called ‘super constituencies’ that pair existing UK Parliament seat boundaries and will allow voters to choose parties rather than individual candidates, unless an independent stands. This by-election, therefore, is expected to be the last in Wales to use the current first-past-the-post system and these boundaries.
One feature distinguishing Senedd elections from Westminster is that 16 and 17-year-olds are eligible to vote, and no ID is required at polling stations. This policy, highlighted by BBC News, has opened the democratic process to younger voters and aims to increase participation. Polling stations will remain open until 10pm, with results expected in the early hours of October 24. For those unable to vote in person due to medical or work reasons, emergency proxy votes are available by contacting the local council.
The by-election has drawn keen interest not only because of the circumstances that prompted it, but also due to the potential for a political upset. The Caerphilly seat has historically been a Labour stronghold, both in the Senedd and Westminster, but recent polling cited by WalesOnline suggests a possible shift: Reform UK is projected to win, with Plaid Cymru predicted to come second and Labour potentially falling to a distant third. If Labour were to lose this seat, it could have knock-on effects for the party’s standing in the Senedd and, by extension, the Welsh Government’s position.
The candidates themselves bring a diverse range of backgrounds and priorities to the table. Steve Aicheler, standing for the Liberal Democrats, is a councillor on Bedwas, Trethomas, and Machen Community Council, an operations manager for Enterprise Educators UK, and a local entrepreneur. He has lived in Machen for 20 years and says his campaign focuses on “care.”
Anthony Cook, representing Gwlad, is chair of the party’s Rhymni and Sirhowy Valleys branch and a former Royal Welsh soldier. He comes from a family of miners and is a father of three. Cook has emphasized his local roots and love for the area’s natural beauty.
Gareth Hughes, the Green Party candidate, is a long-time Caerphilly resident with a background as a journalist, political adviser, educator, housing campaigner, and community activist. He founded the Welsh housing association movement and served as the first director of what is now Community Housing Cymru. Speaking about his candidacy, Hughes told WalesOnline: “I believe Wales needs positive political change – change that puts people and the planet first. The Green Party is the only left-wing party that truly aligns with my values, and I am determined to give Caerphilly a strong, honest, and committed voice in the Senedd.”
Gareth Potter, the Conservative candidate, was born in Pontypool, grew up in Trevethin, and now lives in Ebbw Vale. He has worked in the retail and charity sectors, and is described by Welsh Conservative leader Darren Millar MS as an “experienced campaigner.”
Llŷr Powell, running for Reform UK, is a communications specialist and former head of communications for Reform in Wales. He has lived and worked in Caerphilly for much of his professional life. Powell, who previously stood as a Tory candidate in Cardiff, stated: “The local communities in Caerphilly deserve a Senedd member who will stand up for them after over 26 years of stagnation from Labour and Plaid. Only Reform UK is offering a chance at genuine change.”
Roger Quilliam, UKIP’s candidate, is a 22-year-old Philosophy, Religion, and Ethics student who serves on UKIP’s National Executive Committee. On announcing his candidacy, he wrote: “I am officially running in the upcoming Senedd by-election in Caerphilly. UKIP is the only party who will scrap the Senedd. Up to 1-in-3 in Wales want the Senedd gone. The people of Caerphilly deserve a unionist voice. Vote UKIP on 23 October.”
Labour’s Richard Tunnicliffe is a financial analyst and children’s publishing company owner who lives in Caerphilly with his wife and three sons, all of whom have additional learning needs. Tunnicliffe joined Labour in 1988 and recently rejoined the party after encouragement from Hefin David, whose seat he now seeks to fill.
Lindsay Whittle, Plaid Cymru’s candidate, is a long-standing councillor, leader of the Plaid group on Caerphilly Council, and former Assembly Member for South Wales East. He has stood in every Welsh parliamentary election since 1999 and eight times for the Westminster seat of Caerphilly. At 72, Whittle’s deep roots in the community and long record of public service make him a well-known figure locally.
With polls closing at 10pm and the count expected to continue overnight, all eyes are on Caerphilly as it delivers a verdict that could reverberate across Welsh politics. The outcome will not only determine who represents the constituency for the next few months, but may also provide an early signal of the shifting political winds ahead of the major Senedd reforms set for May 2026.
