Bulls And Raptors Battle For Playoff Position In Toronto

Eastern Conference playoff hopes are on the line as the Chicago Bulls (24-27) travel north to face the Toronto Raptors (30-22) at Scotiabank Arena on Thursday night. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET, and fans can catch the action on Amazon Prime Video and SportsNet. With both teams jostling for postseason positioning, this matchup promises intensity, intrigue, and a fair share of unpredictability.

The Raptors, holding down the sixth seed in the East, are eager to avoid the NBA Play-In Tournament, while the Bulls currently cling to the tenth spot—the last play-in berth. The stakes couldn’t be higher as both squads look to solidify their playoff credentials. Toronto enters the contest as 7.5-point favorites, with the over/under hovering between 224.5 and 227.5 points depending on the sportsbook. The moneyline paints Toronto as a -310 to -328 favorite, while Chicago sits as a +250 to +260 underdog. Clearly, the odds-makers see the Raptors as the team to beat, but recent history suggests this rivalry is far from predictable.

Chicago’s recent run against Toronto has been impressive. The Bulls have won four straight matchups and are 5-1 straight up in their last six meetings with the Raptors. Even more intriguing is Chicago’s 4-1 record in their last five road games in Toronto—a stat that should give Bulls fans a glimmer of hope, even as the odds stack up against them. However, the Bulls’ form has been shaky of late; they’re just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games and 2-7 straight up in their last nine on the road.

Both teams arrive with significant roster changes and injury woes. Chicago, ever-active at the trade deadline, parted ways with Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu, while new acquisition Jaden Ivey is listed as probable, pending trade completion. The Bulls will also be without Josh Giddey (hamstring), Nikola Vucevic, and Noa Essengue (shoulder). Tre Jones (hamstring), Zach Collins (toe), Ousmane Dieng, and Collin Sexton are all questionable, further depleting the Bulls’ rotation. Toronto, meanwhile, will miss RJ Barrett (knee) and Jakob Poeltl (back), both sidelined for Thursday’s game.

With so many key players missing, the question is: where will the offense come from? The Bulls average 117.2 points per game, ranking tenth in the league, but they also surrender a hefty 120.2 points per contest. On the flip side, Toronto’s defense has been a fortress, allowing just 112.5 points per game, good for eighth in the NBA. The Raptors themselves put up 113.8 points per game. This sets up a classic battle between an offense searching for answers and a defense capable of shutting down even the best attacks.

Recent trends offer conflicting signals for bettors and fans alike. According to Evan Abrams, “In January, NBA unders hit at a 60% rate with a 14.5% ROI, and that trend has continued into February. It’s pre-All-Star break, the trade deadline is looming, everyone is ready to pack it in, and lineups are getting weird.” He adds, “When the Bulls have a rest advantage, the under is 6-4… On the other side, Toronto is 5-3 to the under when they have a rest disadvantage, which is the case here on the second night of a back-to-back.”

Still, not everyone is convinced this game will be a defensive slog. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates each NBA game 10,000 times, projects a total of 229 points, with the over hitting in 55.2% of simulations. The model forecasts seven Bulls players and five Raptors reaching double figures, suggesting that, despite roster turnover and injuries, both teams have enough firepower to light up the scoreboard. The last two meetings—and three of the last four—between these teams have gone over the total, while both squads’ most recent games also eclipsed the betting line, with Toronto’s last outing hitting 254 combined points and Chicago’s reaching 246.

As for the betting markets, the spread remains steady at Raptors -7.5. The over/under varies slightly, but most books hover between 224.5 and 227.5. Chicago’s recent struggles against the spread (1-5 in their last six) are offset by their strong record against Toronto, both straight up and ATS. The total has gone under in six of Chicago’s last seven games against Atlantic Division opponents, but over in four of their last five games played in February. Toronto, meanwhile, is 5-3 to the under when playing with a rest disadvantage, but their recent offensive surge can’t be ignored.

On the court, expect the Raptors to lean on their top-five defense and home-court advantage. Toronto is 14-12 at home this season, while Chicago is just 9-16 on the road. The Bulls’ offensive metrics—47.31% field goal shooting (tenth in the league) and 36.82% from three (eighth)—will be put to the test against a Raptors defense that ranks ninth in field goal percentage allowed (46.21%) and second in three-point percentage allowed (34.39%). Chicago’s ability to move the ball (29.55 assists per game, third in the NBA) could be a difference-maker, but only if their patchwork lineup can gel quickly.

As for the intangibles, both teams are feeling the pressure. The Bulls are desperate to hold onto their play-in spot, while the Raptors know every win keeps them clear of the play-in fray. With the trade deadline looming, expect some unfamiliar faces in both rotations, making for a game that could swing wildly in either direction. Will Toronto’s defense clamp down, or will Chicago’s new-look roster catch fire and keep their hot streak in Toronto alive?

One thing’s for certain: with playoff implications, roster shake-ups, and a history of dramatic finishes between these teams, Thursday night’s clash at Scotiabank Arena is must-watch basketball. The action tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET, and with so many variables at play, don’t be surprised if this matchup delivers a few surprises of its own before the final buzzer sounds.