As the chill of winter approaches Eastern Europe, Bulgaria finds itself at the epicenter of a growing energy crisis, triggered by sweeping U.S. sanctions on Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft. The sanctions, imposed at the end of October 2025 in response to Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, have sent shockwaves through the region’s energy markets, leaving Bulgaria’s fuel reserves perilously low and its government scrambling for solutions.
According to AzerNews, Bulgaria’s Agency for State Reserves painted a stark picture: gasoline stocks are forecast to last just 35 days, while diesel supplies could run out in 50 days if the current consumption rate holds. With winter looming, the timing could hardly be worse. The situation is particularly acute because Lukoil, one of the sanctioned Russian firms, operates Bulgaria’s largest oil refinery in the coastal city of Burgas and owns hundreds of gas stations across the country. The company’s dominance in the sector means that any disruption to its operations ripples quickly through the entire Bulgarian economy.
“The situation worsened after the United States imposed sanctions at the end of October 2025 on Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft,” AzerNews reported, echoing the sense of urgency that now grips Sofia’s corridors of power. The sanctions are set to fully come into force on November 21, 2025, but their effects are already being felt. Lukoil’s operations have been disrupted not just in Bulgaria, but also in places as far-flung as Iraq and Finland, according to Reuters. The company’s foreign refineries and assets have become hot commodities, as potential buyers seek to strike deals before the sanctions lock them out of the market.
In Bulgaria, the government has responded with a flurry of emergency measures. Fuel exports—primarily diesel and aviation fuel—to other EU countries have been temporarily banned, a move intended to preserve domestic supplies. On November 6, 2025, the Bulgarian parliament passed a law allowing the Burgas refinery to be placed under temporary state control, with the aim of transferring it to a new owner and shielding it from the fallout of American sanctions. However, the process has not been without hiccups. Bulgaria’s president, Rumen Radev, has sent the legislation back to parliament, requesting legal changes to ensure the move complies with national and international law, Reuters reported.
Meanwhile, Bulgaria is not alone in its efforts to insulate itself from the turbulence. Across the region, other countries are taking similar steps. Moldova’s government has opened talks to nationalize Lukoil’s infrastructure at Chisinau airport, while Egypt is reportedly in discussions over Lukoil’s potential exit from its three oil concessions in the country. In Kazakhstan, the state energy firm KazMunayGas is weighing a bid for Lukoil’s assets, and in Africa, Shell has expressed interest in the company’s deepwater holdings in Ghana and Nigeria, though it declined to comment publicly on the matter, according to Reuters.
The pressure on Lukoil is immense. Sergey Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and former head of strategy at Gazprom Neft, told Reuters that the company faces a stark choice: "Lukoil faces either selling its assets and having the proceeds potentially seized, or their takeover by foreign states if it does not sell them." The U.S. Treasury has already blocked an attempted sale of Lukoil’s foreign assets to Gunvor, a Swiss-based oil trader, describing Gunvor as the Kremlin’s "puppet."
Bulgaria’s predicament is further complicated by its reliance on reserves of crude oil and petroleum products stored abroad. While these reserves offer some cushion, importing them back into the country is a time-consuming process—one that may not keep pace with the nation’s immediate needs. As experts warn, this lag could leave Bulgaria vulnerable during the critical winter months, when energy demand typically spikes and supply disruptions can have severe consequences for households and businesses alike.
The government’s quick and decisive actions have drawn attention from analysts across Europe. Some suggest that Bulgaria’s approach—banning exports, moving to seize strategic assets, and seeking new ownership for critical infrastructure—could serve as a model for other EU nations that remain heavily dependent on Russian energy. The speed and scope of Sofia’s response underscore just how swiftly geopolitical events can cascade into local crises, forcing governments to make tough decisions in real time.
Yet, the road ahead is fraught with uncertainty. Even as Bulgaria hustles to secure its domestic energy needs, the fate of the Burgas refinery remains in limbo, caught between legislative wrangling and the ticking clock of U.S. sanctions. The potential for asset seizures or forced sales hangs over Lukoil’s global operations, with ripple effects that could reshape the ownership and control of key energy infrastructure across multiple continents.
Outside Bulgaria, the consequences of the sanctions are being felt in other arenas as well. Moldova’s move to nationalize Lukoil’s airport infrastructure, Egypt’s talks over Lukoil’s possible exit, and Kazakhstan’s interest in acquiring assets all point to a broader realignment of the energy landscape. The urgency is palpable, as governments and corporations alike race to secure their interests before the November 21 deadline.
Meanwhile, the broader context of the Ukraine war continues to drive these developments. As reported by Reuters, the fighting on the ground shows no signs of abating, with Russian forces advancing in several regions and Ukrainian officials calling for increased mobilization. The conflict’s impact on global energy markets remains profound, as Western governments use economic sanctions as a tool to pressure Moscow, with far-reaching consequences for countries like Bulgaria that find themselves caught in the crossfire.
For ordinary Bulgarians, the prospect of fuel shortages in the dead of winter is a sobering one. The government’s efforts to maintain energy security are being watched closely, both at home and abroad. As the clock ticks down to the full implementation of U.S. sanctions, the stakes could not be higher—for Bulgaria, for Lukoil, and for the broader European energy market.
In the coming weeks, all eyes will be on Sofia as it navigates this precarious moment, balancing domestic needs, international obligations, and the unpredictable currents of global geopolitics. The outcome will not only determine how Bulgaria weathers the winter, but also offer important lessons for a continent grappling with the new realities of energy security in an era of conflict and sanctions.
