All eyes are on Lumen Field this Sunday as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, sitting atop the NFC South at 3-1, square off against the equally impressive 3-1 Seattle Seahawks. With both teams vying to keep pace in the ultra-competitive NFC, the stakes couldn’t be higher for this Week 5 clash, scheduled to kick off at 4:05 p.m. ET and broadcast live on CBS and Paramount+.
There’s no sugarcoating it—the Buccaneers are coming off a stinging 31-25 loss to the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. Despite a furious late rally, Tampa Bay fell just short, exposing some cracks in their offensive armor, particularly on third downs. This week, they’ll need a sharp turnaround, especially with the Seahawks boasting one of the league’s stingiest defenses. The betting odds, as of Saturday afternoon, reflect the challenge ahead: Seattle enters as a 3.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 44.5 points.
Let’s set the scene: The Bucs’ offense, led by Baker Mayfield, is averaging 24.3 points per game—respectable, but not exactly lighting up the scoreboard. Mayfield himself has been a bright spot, amassing 904 passing yards, eight touchdowns, and just one interception so far. He’s ninth in the NFL in passing yards, and his 8-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio has turned some heads. Still, he’s been sacked eight times, and the offense has struggled to convert on third downs, ranking just 22nd in the league with a 37.0 percent success rate. That’s not ideal, especially given the Bucs also have the ninth-highest number of third-down attempts in the NFL.
“We’ve got to be better on third downs,” Mayfield admitted after last week’s loss, echoing the frustrations of the Tampa Bay faithful. The numbers back him up: the Bucs went just 3-for-13 on third downs against Philadelphia, and their season-long average distance to go on third down has been a daunting 8.3 yards in some games. Without more efficiency on first and second down, those third-and-long situations are going to keep piling up. And with running back Bucky Irving sidelined due to a foot injury, the pressure mounts for Tampa Bay to limit negative plays and set up manageable conversions.
Making matters even tougher, the Buccaneers will be without star wide receiver Mike Evans, who’s sidelined with a hamstring injury. Evans, a 12-year veteran and one of the league’s most consistent receivers, has racked up 11 straight 1,000-yard seasons—a streak that speaks volumes about his impact. But the Bucs aren’t exactly bereft of weapons. Emeka Egbuka has emerged as Mayfield’s go-to target, leading the team with 282 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 18 catches. Sterling Shepard has chipped in with 13 receptions for 167 yards, while Chris Godwin, who made his season debut last week, could be poised for a bigger role after hauling in three passes for 26 yards. Though Godwin and Mayfield weren’t quite in sync—10 targets resulted in just three catches—there’s optimism that chemistry will develop as the season progresses.
On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks are riding high on a three-game winning streak, most recently edging out the Arizona Cardinals 23-20 on Thursday Night Football. Quarterback Sam Darnold has quietly put together a standout campaign, leading the NFL with 9.1 yards per pass (tied with Lamar Jackson). Darnold’s improvement has been a key factor in Seattle’s offensive surge, which sees them ranked sixth in the league at 27.8 points per game. The Seahawks’ offensive line has also done its job, giving Darnold the time needed to make big plays downfield.
But it’s the Seahawks’ defense, masterminded by head coach Mike Macdonald, that’s truly stealing the show. Seattle ranks second in the NFL in points allowed (just 16.8 per game) and third in yards per play (4.5). Their ability to minimize explosive plays and clamp down on the run—especially with Tampa Bay’s Bucky Irving out—could spell trouble for the Bucs, who have struggled to get their ground game going. The Seahawks also allow a 39.0 percent third-down conversion rate, making them a tough nut to crack in critical situations.
“Mike Macdonald is excellent at scheming a defense,” noted one analyst, and the numbers bear that out. Seattle’s secondary will be tested by Egbuka, Shepard, and Godwin, but the absence of Evans gives them a clear advantage. The Seahawks’ defensive front will look to exploit Tampa Bay’s issues on third down, and if they can keep Mayfield under pressure, it could be a long afternoon for the Bucs.
Defensively, Tampa Bay has held its own, ranking fourth in the NFL by allowing just 272.2 yards per game. However, their performance last week against the Eagles left something to be desired, as they failed to contain Jalen Hurts and allowed several big plays. The Bucs’ defense will need to tighten up against Darnold and the Seahawks’ balanced attack if they hope to pull off the upset in Seattle.
Special teams could also play a pivotal role. The Buccaneers suffered a blocked punt and two costly turnovers against the Eagles, mistakes they can ill afford to repeat against a Seahawks team that thrives on capitalizing on opponents’ miscues. With both teams sporting 3-1 records and legitimate playoff aspirations, every snap will count.
Bettors and fans alike are anticipating a close contest. The SportsLine projection model gives Tampa Bay a 53% chance of covering the spread, predicting a narrow 23-21 win for Seattle. The Seahawks have the edge at home and benefit from extra rest after playing on Thursday night in Week 4, but the Bucs’ resilience and knack for late-game comebacks mean this one could go down to the wire.
So, what should fans expect when the Buccaneers and Seahawks take the field in Seattle? With two top-tier defenses, dynamic playmakers on both sides, and playoff implications already looming, this Week 5 matchup promises plenty of drama. Whether it’s Mayfield’s arm, Darnold’s poise, or a game-changing turnover, one thing’s for sure: the action at Lumen Field will be must-see TV.
As kickoff approaches, both teams are eager to prove they belong among the NFC’s elite. For Tampa Bay, it’s a chance to bounce back and solidify their hold on the division. For Seattle, it’s an opportunity to keep their winning streak alive and show they’re contenders, not pretenders. Stay tuned—this one’s far from settled.
