Brazil is on the cusp of an extraordinary moment in its modern political history as former president Jair Bolsonaro faces the near certainty of imprisonment, following the Supreme Court’s rejection of his last major appeal. The ruling, delivered at midnight on Friday, November 15, 2025, by a panel of Supreme Court judges, upheld a 27-year-and-three-month sentence for Bolsonaro’s role in a failed coup attempt and an alleged plot to assassinate key political figures. The court’s decision, which has sent shockwaves through the country, is expected to be formally published as early as Monday, November 17, 2025, setting in motion a swift legal timetable that could see Bolsonaro behind bars before the month is out.
Bolsonaro, who lost the 2022 presidential election to Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, was convicted in September 2025 for orchestrating a conspiracy aimed at preventing Lula from taking office. According to AFP and other outlets, prosecutors charged that the scheme included plans to assassinate Lula and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, as well as Vice President Geraldo Alckmin. These plans, prosecutors allege, only collapsed when top military commanders refused to lend their support.
The 70-year-old former army captain has been under house arrest since August 2025, maintaining his innocence throughout the proceedings. He may request to serve his sentence at home, citing ongoing health issues stemming from a stabbing he suffered during the 2018 presidential campaign. But the outcome now seems all but inevitable. As Getulio Vargas Foundation Law School professor Thiago Bottino told AFP, “Generally, after the publication of the final judgment, the arrest warrant is issued on the same day.” The decision on where Bolsonaro will be held rests with Justice Moraes, who has played a central role in the case.
The charges against Bolsonaro focus on his efforts to delegitimize Brazil’s voting system, laying the groundwork for a potential military intervention if he lost the election. Prosecutors presented evidence that Bolsonaro approved a plot to assassinate Lula, Alckmin, and Moraes. In a chilling audio message made public by the Supreme Court, federal police agent Wladimir Soares said, “We were ready to kill a lot of people. We were only awaiting orders from the president, but he backed down.”
Reporting from AFP and other sources highlights Judge Moraes’s forceful rejection of Bolsonaro’s appeal. Moraes underscored that a coordinated coup attempt had taken shape under Bolsonaro’s command, with ample proof of his involvement. The judge also emphasized Bolsonaro’s role in inciting the January 8, 2023, attacks on Brazil’s Congress and other democratic institutions. On that day, rioting supporters stormed government buildings, demanding a military takeover to oust Lula—a scene that evoked memories of past political turmoil in the country.
Moraes explained that the severity of the crimes and Bolsonaro’s “high culpability” as president justified the lengthy sentence. The judge noted that Bolsonaro’s age had already been considered as a mitigating factor, but the gravity of his actions outweighed any leniency. Three other judges on the Supreme Court panel concurred, each voting to uphold the conviction and the sentence.
The legal proceedings now enter a final phase. Once the Supreme Court’s decision is formally published, Bolsonaro’s legal team will have five days to file one last appeal. However, as multiple sources have reported, this appeal can be “quickly” quashed by Justice Moraes, who would then issue the final judgment. The arrest warrant, according to legal experts and the court’s own procedures, is typically issued the same day as the final judgment. All signs point to Bolsonaro’s imprisonment in the last week of November 2025, barring any unforeseen developments.
Bolsonaro’s defense has continued to insist on his innocence, arguing that the case against him is politically motivated. Supporters claim that the charges are an attempt to silence a prominent opposition leader, while critics argue that the evidence is overwhelming and the rule of law must prevail. The country remains deeply polarized, with large segments of the population either rallying behind Bolsonaro or demanding accountability for what they see as an assault on Brazil’s democracy.
The story does not end with Bolsonaro himself. In a separate but related development on the same day as the Supreme Court’s ruling, the panel advanced a criminal case against Bolsonaro’s son, federal lawmaker Eduardo Bolsonaro. Eduardo stands accused of “coercion” for lobbying in the United States for sanctions intended to influence the outcome of his father’s trial. According to AFP, Brazil’s chief prosecutor charged Eduardo in September for his efforts to sway the verdict by seeking external pressure. The majority of judges on the Supreme Court panel voted to move forward with this case, signaling that the Bolsonaro family’s legal troubles may be far from over.
The failed coup attempt and the subsequent legal proceedings have cast a long shadow over Brazil’s political landscape. The charges against Bolsonaro stem from a broader campaign to undermine confidence in the nation’s electoral system—a campaign that reached its climax in the days following the 2022 election, as Bolsonaro and his allies alleged widespread fraud without providing credible evidence. Prosecutors argued that this campaign was not merely rhetorical but was designed to justify a military intervention should Bolsonaro lose at the polls.
The revelation of a plot to assassinate senior political figures has added a layer of gravity to the case. The audio message from federal police agent Wladimir Soares, in which he stated that the hit squad was “ready to kill a lot of people” and only awaited Bolsonaro’s order, has been widely cited as evidence of the seriousness of the conspiracy. The fact that Bolsonaro ultimately “backed down” did not, in the eyes of the court, absolve him of responsibility for the plot’s existence or for the broader attempt to subvert Brazil’s democratic institutions.
As the country awaits the final publication of the Supreme Court’s decision and the likely issuance of an arrest warrant, many are reflecting on the implications for Brazil’s democracy. The case has become a litmus test for the strength of the rule of law in a country with a long history of political upheaval and military intervention. For some, the prospect of a former president facing prison time is a sign that no one is above the law. For others, it raises concerns about political retribution and the dangers of deepening polarization.
While the legal process grinds toward its conclusion, the political and social reverberations are only just beginning. The eyes of Brazil—and the world—are fixed on what comes next, as the nation confronts the consequences of a failed coup and the fate of one of its most controversial leaders hangs in the balance.
