Brazil stands at a political crossroads after its Federal Supreme Court (STF) delivered a unanimous and historic verdict on November 7, 2025: former President Jair Bolsonaro’s appeal against his 27-year and three-month prison sentence for attempting a coup d’état has been rejected, cementing his conviction and sending shockwaves through the country’s deeply polarized society.
The STF’s decision, as reported by AP and Colombia One, marks the culmination of a high-profile legal battle that began in the aftermath of the 2022 presidential election. Bolsonaro, who lost his re-election bid to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, was found guilty in September 2025 of orchestrating a plot to overturn the election results and prevent the peaceful transfer of power. The ruling panel included Justices Alexandre de Moraes, Flavio Dino, Cristiano Zanin, and Cármen Lúcia, with one seat vacant since late October. Justice de Moraes, serving as rapporteur, minced no words in dismissing the defense’s arguments as “unfeasible,” declaring that “there were no omissions in the sentencing.”
Bolsonaro’s legal team had argued that the charges—organizing a coup and attempting to violently abolish democracy—overlapped and that the cumulative penalties were unjust. They also cited Justice Luiz Fux, the lone dissenting voice in the original conviction, who maintained that Bolsonaro had “deliberately interrupted the course of events” and did not follow through with the coup. But Fux’s departure from the panel meant those arguments fell on deaf ears. As de Moraes noted in his written opinion, “It was also demonstrated that the appellant acted freely and knowingly to spread false information about the electronic voting system and to draft a coup decree, which constituted the practice of a coup d’état and a violent attempt to abolish the rule of law.”
The events at the heart of the case trace back to the tumultuous weeks after Lula’s election victory in October 2022. According to the STF’s findings, Bolsonaro actively promoted maneuvers to invalidate the electoral process, mobilizing allies in the Armed Forces and rallying supporters to force a change in government by extra-legal means. The most dramatic flashpoint came on January 8, 2023, when Bolsonaro’s backers stormed democratic institutions in Brasília, echoing the scenes seen in Washington, D.C. two years prior. The court’s ruling leaves little doubt about Bolsonaro’s culpability, stating that he participated in an armed criminal organization, attempted to violently abolish democracy, and organized a coup.
Despite his conviction, Bolsonaro remains under house arrest, a status he has held since August 2025 due to alleged violations of precautionary measures. His lawyers, citing his fragile health following multiple surgeries for injuries sustained in a 2018 stabbing, are expected to request that he be allowed to serve his sentence at home. The former president’s legal woes don’t end there: he is also under investigation for alleged political proselytism in the United States aimed at undermining Lula’s government, and his son, lawmaker Eduardo Bolsonaro, currently residing in the U.S., faces criminal charges related to the same case. The Supreme Court is set to decide later this month whether Eduardo will be made a defendant.
The political fallout has been immediate and intense. Bolsonaro’s party, reeling from the court’s decision, is now pinning its hopes on passing an amnesty law in Congress that could spare their leader from imprisonment. This effort has energized Bolsonaro’s loyal base, which views the court’s actions as politically motivated. As Colombia One notes, “Bolsonaro’s supporters view his case as a symbol of political persecution,” while others see the verdict as a crucial stand against impunity and a reaffirmation of Brazil’s democratic institutions.
Reactions from across the political spectrum have been predictably polarized. Democratic parties and civil society organizations have hailed the STF’s ruling as a victory for the rule of law. “The STF’s firm stance reinforces the message that there is no impunity for serious attacks on democracy,” observes Colombia One. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro’s allies have doubled down on claims of judicial overreach, warning that the ruling could fuel new demonstrations and deepen the country’s already acute divisions.
Internationally, the trial has not gone unnoticed. The case has drawn comparisons to the U.S. Capitol riot and has attracted the attention of global leaders. Former U.S. President Donald Trump, a political ally of Bolsonaro, denounced the proceedings as a “witch hunt,” responding by imposing a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, sanctioning the judge overseeing the case, and revoking visas for several Brazilian officials. These moves triggered what AP described as “the lowest point in [U.S.-Brazil] relations in their more than 200-year history.” However, relations appear to be thawing: Lula and Trump spoke by phone and met last month in Malaysia during the ASEAN summit, signaling a potential reset.
For Bolsonaro, the path forward is bleak. With the STF’s ruling considered irrevocable—barring a highly unlikely residual appeal—he will begin serving his sentence once all legal avenues are exhausted, which court sources say could happen as soon as this month. Whether he will serve time in a maximum-security prison or remain under house arrest due to his health remains to be seen. Analysts doubt that the 70-year-old politician will spend the rest of his life behind bars, but the symbolism of the sentence is undeniable.
The broader implications for Brazil and the region are profound. The STF’s decision sets a precedent for how Latin American democracies might respond to attempts to subvert the constitutional order. “That a right-wing former head of state has received such a severe punishment for attacking democratic order could set a precedent in a region where attempts to erode institutions have been a recurring threat,” writes Colombia One. The ruling also comes at a time of heightened political polarization in Brazil, where rhetoric undermining institutions and the rule of law has become increasingly common.
As the country awaits the next steps—whether in Congress, the courts, or the streets—one thing is clear: the STF’s verdict has brought Brazil to a defining moment. The question now is not just how Bolsonaro will serve his sentence, but how a deeply divided nation will navigate the aftermath of a trial that has tested the very foundations of its democracy.
With the world watching, Brazil’s response to this unprecedented chapter will echo far beyond its borders.
