Brazil’s political landscape was rocked again this week as a panel of the country’s Supreme Court unanimously rejected former President Jair Bolsonaro’s appeal against his 27-year prison sentence for plotting a coup after the 2022 presidential election. The decision, delivered on November 7, 2025, marks a decisive moment in a saga that has captivated both domestic and international audiences, with reverberations extending far beyond Brazil’s borders.
The panel’s five seats were nearly full, with Justices Alexandre de Moraes, Flávio Dino, Cristiano Zanin, and Cármen Lúcia all voting to reject Bolsonaro’s request. One seat has remained vacant since late October, but the majority was clear. The justices have until November 14 to finalize their votes, though legal experts say a reversal is highly unlikely at this stage, according to Reuters and the Associated Press.
Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who presided over the case and acted as rapporteur, was unequivocal in his assessment of the defense’s arguments. In a 141-page document seen by AFP, Moraes described the claims as “unfeasible,” noting, “The ruling justified all stages of the sentencing process.” He stated there were no omissions in the original sentencing and dismissed the notion that the defense had been overwhelmed by the volume of documents and digital files, a point raised by Bolsonaro’s legal team in their October 28 appeal.
The former president, who remains a polarizing figure in Brazil and abroad, was convicted in September 2025 on five counts, including organizing a coup, participating in an armed criminal organization, and attempting to violently abolish democracy. The charges stemmed from his efforts to remain in power after losing the 2022 presidential race to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Prosecutors alleged that Bolsonaro’s plot even included plans to kill President Lula, and that the scheme failed only because the military’s top brass refused to support it, as reported by Al Jazeera and Reuters.
Bolsonaro, now 70, has been under house arrest since August 2025 for violating precautionary measures in a separate case. His legal team, citing recurring health issues that date back to a 2018 stabbing and subsequent surgeries—including a 12-hour operation in April—are expected to request that he be allowed to serve the sentence under house arrest. According to Reuters, Bolsonaro’s lawyers argued there had been “profound injustices” and “contradictions” in his conviction, and that the charges of organizing a coup and attempting to violently abolish democracy overlapped, rendering cumulative penalties unjust.
Justice Moraes was unswayed by these arguments. He reaffirmed that Bolsonaro had orchestrated a deliberate coup attempt, pointing to “ample proof” of his involvement. Moraes cited Bolsonaro’s role in instigating the January 8, 2023, assault on Brazil’s democratic institutions, when supporters stormed government buildings demanding a military takeover to oust Lula. “It was also demonstrated that the appellant acted freely and knowingly to spread false information about the electronic voting system and to draft a coup decree, which constituted the practice of a coup d’état and a violent attempt to abolish the rule of law,” Moraes wrote, as quoted by the Associated Press.
One notable absence from the review panel was Justice Luiz Fux, who had been the sole dissenting vote in the original five-member panel that convicted Bolsonaro. Fux had argued that even if Bolsonaro had attempted a coup, he “deliberately interrupted the course of events” and did not follow through. However, Fux’s departure from the panel meant his perspective carried no weight in the current appeal, as reported by AP and Reuters.
Bolsonaro, for his part, continues to deny any wrongdoing. He has maintained that he did not orchestrate a coup and that his actions were misinterpreted by political opponents. Nevertheless, the court found that his attempts to undermine the electoral process, spread misinformation about Brazil’s electronic voting system, and draft a coup decree constituted a grave threat to the country’s democratic order.
The ramifications of the trial have not been limited to Brazil. The case drew global headlines, especially after U.S. President Donald Trump weighed in, calling the proceedings against Bolsonaro a “witch hunt.” In response, Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, sanctioned the judge overseeing the case, and revoked the visas of several Brazilian officials. These moves led to what experts described as the lowest point in U.S.-Brazil relations in more than two centuries, according to the Associated Press and Reuters.
However, the diplomatic chill has begun to thaw in recent months. Lula and Trump spoke by phone and later met in October 2025 at the ASEAN summit in Malaysia. Negotiations are reportedly underway to reduce the punitive tariffs, and both sides have signaled a desire to move past the acrimony that followed Bolsonaro’s conviction, as detailed by Al Jazeera and AP.
Back home, the fallout from the trial continues to reshape Brazil’s political landscape. An initiative by Bolsonaro’s supporters in Congress to push through an amnesty bill that could have benefited him fizzled out after massive protests erupted across the country. With the conservative electorate now lacking a clear champion ahead of the 2026 presidential elections, political observers are watching closely as Lula, now 80, has announced his intention to seek a fourth term.
Meanwhile, Bolsonaro’s legal woes are far from over. Although he will only begin serving his sentence once all appeals are exhausted—a process that could conclude as early as this month, according to court sources—his family is also under scrutiny. His son, lawmaker Eduardo Bolsonaro, currently in the U.S., has been criminally charged in connection with the case. The Supreme Court panel is set to vote on whether to turn him into a defendant later in November, as reported by Reuters.
Despite the mounting legal and political challenges, Bolsonaro’s base remains vocal, if diminished. His lawyers continue to insist that the former president was denied a fair trial and are expected to exhaust every legal avenue in an effort to secure more lenient conditions, particularly in light of his ongoing health problems. Whether these arguments will sway the courts—or the public—remains to be seen.
For now, Brazil stands at a crossroads, with its institutions tested and its future leadership uncertain. The Supreme Court’s firm stance sends a clear signal about the country’s commitment to upholding the rule of law, even as the political aftershocks continue to ripple through society. With the final decision expected by mid-November, all eyes remain fixed on Brasília, where the next chapter in this extraordinary saga will soon unfold.
