Brazil is bracing for a historic moment as former president Jair Bolsonaro faces imminent imprisonment, following the Supreme Court’s decision to uphold his 27-year sentence for an attempted coup. The development, finalized on November 14, 2025, signals a dramatic turn in the country’s political landscape and sets the stage for a rapid and highly orchestrated arrest operation, according to multiple reports from AFP, InfoMoney, and Brasil 247.
Bolsonaro, a 70-year-old former army captain, has been under house arrest in a Brasilia condominium since August 2025. His legal troubles escalated after he was convicted in September for orchestrating a failed scheme to prevent President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva from taking office after the 2022 elections. Prosecutors detailed that the plot included plans to assassinate Lula, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. The scheme, they argued, only unraveled due to a lack of support from the military’s upper echelons, as reported by AFP.
The Supreme Court’s panel of judges unanimously rejected Bolsonaro’s appeal last week, a move that was made official at midnight on November 14. According to a court source cited by AFP, the defense now has five days—potentially until November 17, 2025—to submit a new appeal. However, legal experts believe this final avenue could be swiftly dismissed by Justice Moraes, who has the authority to issue the arrest warrant once the judgment is published. "Generally, after the publication of the final judgment, the arrest warrant is issued on the same day," explained Thiago Bottino, a law professor at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, in comments to AFP.
Brazil’s Federal Police, meanwhile, have been preparing for this moment. According to InfoMoney and Brasil 247, officials have finalized a "detailed and swift operational plan" for Bolsonaro’s detention. The operation is designed to be "rapid and discreet," with arrangements in place for air transport, expanded manpower, and security convoys. Authorities have considered a variety of scenarios, including the possibility of public demonstrations by Bolsonaro supporters near his residence. The plan includes contingency protocols to manage disturbances and ensure the safety of all personnel involved, with the goal of minimizing exposure and avoiding clashes.
As Brasil 247 reports, the police leadership is monitoring the case daily, and teams are ready to move the moment Justice Moraes gives the green light. The operation may involve aircraft to expedite Bolsonaro’s transfer and reduce public visibility, as well as backup routes for the security convoy. This level of preparation underscores the gravity of the situation and the authorities’ determination to execute the arrest with precision and minimal disruption.
The Supreme Court justices, for their part, foresee a strong likelihood that Bolsonaro will begin serving his sentence in a closed prison regime by late November 2025. According to sources within the court, the chances of overturning the conviction are minimal, particularly given the speed at which the case has advanced. As AFP notes, Bolsonaro’s age was considered a mitigating factor in the 27 years and three months sentence, but it did little to sway the judges’ assessment of his culpability.
The charges against Bolsonaro are severe and multifaceted. Prosecutors accused him of systematically undermining Brazil’s voting system to lay the groundwork for fraud allegations, should Lula win the election, and to justify a potential military intervention. Perhaps most chillingly, the plot extended to assassination plans targeting the nation’s top leaders. Federal police agent Wladimir Soares, believed to be part of the planned hit squad, stated in an audio message made public by the Supreme Court, "We were ready to kill a lot of people. We were only awaiting orders from the president, but he backed down." This admission, cited by AFP, highlights the depth of the conspiracy and Bolsonaro’s role at its center.
Justice Alexandre de Moraes, in rejecting the appeal, reaffirmed that there had been a deliberate coup attempt orchestrated under Bolsonaro’s leadership, with ample proof of his involvement. Moraes also underscored Bolsonaro’s role in inciting the January 8 assault on Brazil’s congress and other democratic institutions, when rioting supporters demanded a military takeover to oust Lula. The judge maintained that the severity and impact of the crimes warranted the substantial sentence, stating that Bolsonaro’s age had already been taken into account as a mitigating factor.
Adding another layer to the unfolding drama, the Supreme Court on November 14 also voted to move forward with a criminal case against Bolsonaro’s son, federal lawmaker Eduardo Bolsonaro, for the crime of "coercion." Eduardo, who currently resides in the United States, was charged in September for lobbying the U.S. to impose sanctions in an effort to sway the outcome of his father’s coup trial, according to AFP. This development signals the court’s intent to hold not just the former president, but also his close associates and family members, accountable for their roles in the alleged coup plot.
At present, Bolsonaro remains under house arrest, not only for his conviction in the coup case but also for breaching precautionary measures in a separate investigation. That inquiry examines suspected activities abroad intended to pressure the Supreme Federal Court and avert legal consequences connected to alleged coup-related actions, as reported by ANI and Brasil 247.
The broader political context in Brazil remains tense, with authorities anticipating potential demonstrations by Bolsonaro’s supporters. The Federal Police’s operational plan reflects a keen awareness of this possibility, emphasizing rapid deployment of additional officers and robust contingency protocols to manage any escalation. The authorities’ aim, as echoed across multiple reports, is to ensure the rule of law prevails without provoking further unrest.
As the clock ticks down, all eyes are on Justice Moraes and the Supreme Court. If the final judgment is published and the arrest warrant issued as anticipated, Bolsonaro could be behind bars by the end of November 2025. For many in Brazil, this marks a watershed moment—a test of the country’s democratic institutions and their ability to hold even the most powerful figures to account. The coming weeks will reveal whether the carefully laid plans of the Federal Police and the resolve of the judiciary can weather the inevitable political storm.
With the legal and operational machinery now in full motion, Brazil stands on the cusp of an unprecedented chapter in its modern history—one that will reverberate far beyond the walls of the Supreme Court and the residence of its embattled former president.
