Brazil’s political landscape has been thrown into turmoil following the dramatic conviction of former President Jair Bolsonaro for his role in a failed coup attempt, and the subsequent fast-tracking of an amnesty bill in Congress that could determine not only his fate, but also the future of Brazil’s democracy. These developments come as the country’s relationship with the United States reaches new lows, with economic and diplomatic tensions threatening to spill over into broader regional instability.
On September 11, 2025, a panel of five Brazilian Supreme Court judges delivered a landmark verdict: in a 4-1 decision, they found Bolsonaro guilty on multiple counts, including orchestrating a coup to overturn his 2022 electoral defeat, plotting to kill then-incoming President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and a Supreme Court justice, participating in a criminal organization, attempting to violently abolish the democratic rule of law, and causing qualified damage by violence. The court also convicted seven of Bolsonaro’s allies, holding them responsible for the infamous January 8, 2023, attack on government buildings in Brasília—a day that saw the destruction of Oscar Niemeyer-designed landmarks and other historical treasures.
The sentence was severe: twenty-seven years and three months in prison for Bolsonaro. According to Reuters, he has been under house arrest since the lead-up to the trial. This conviction follows an earlier 2023 ruling by the Superior Electoral Court, which had already rendered Bolsonaro ineligible to run for office for eight years due to abuse of power. The latest decision all but guarantees he will not be on the ballot for the pivotal 2026 presidential election.
Yet, the story is far from over. Just days after the Supreme Court’s decision, Brazil’s lower house of Congress voted 311-163 to fast-track an amnesty bill championed by the right-wing opposition. The bill, in its preliminary form, would pardon those involved in “political demonstrations” from October 30, 2022, onward—covering the period of the January 8 riots. According to Reuters, the bill’s scope could be broadened or narrowed before a final vote, with some lawmakers advocating for reduced sentences rather than full pardons and others pushing to include Bolsonaro himself.
Congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, the former president’s son, has been vocal in his support for legislative amnesty. Speaking to Reuters on the day of his father’s conviction, he argued that amnesty would be a shortcut to “achieving some form of justice…and bringing peace to Brazil.” His comments reflect the hopes of Bolsonaro’s supporters, who see legislative relief as a potential lifeline.
However, the idea of a sweeping amnesty is deeply controversial. Two Supreme Court justices have already warned that pardoning those convicted of plotting a coup would be unconstitutional. The Lula administration has come out strongly against the proposal. As Institutional Relations Minister Gleisi Hoffmann wrote on social media, “Far from paving the way for any pacification, it would be an affront to the Judiciary and the country’s democratic conscience.”
House Speaker Hugo Motta has kept the contours of the bill deliberately vague, emphasizing the diversity of opinion within the chamber. “We have different views and divergent interests in the house regarding the events of 8th January, 2023. It is up to the sovereign plenary to decide,” Motta said as he opened the procedural vote, according to Reuters. He appointed Congressman Paulinho da Força as the bill’s sponsor, tasking him with drafting a compromise that, in his words, “may not please the left or the right, but that pleases the majority of the house.”
As the amnesty debate rages in Brasília, the international ramifications are already being felt. The relationship between Brazil and the United States has soured considerably since Bolsonaro’s conviction. In August, U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 50 percent tariffs on several Brazilian imports, citing what he labeled a “witch hunt” against Bolsonaro and alleging unfair trade practices. The U.S. Office of the Trade Representative launched a Section 301 investigation into Brazil’s treatment of American companies, while the Treasury Department invoked the Global Magnitsky Act to sanction and impose visa restrictions on Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes—the judge who presided over Bolsonaro’s trial—and other justices involved in the case, as reported by the Atlantic Council.
The diplomatic chill has only deepened. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other Trump administration officials have openly criticized Bolsonaro’s conviction, threatening further retaliatory measures against Brazil. Should the U.S. escalate with additional financial sanctions or regulatory actions, Brazil’s economy could face significant strain. Despite this, the Brazilian government has maintained a firm stance. Officials have underscored the independence of Brazil’s judiciary and the nonnegotiable nature of its sovereignty. In a recent interview with the BBC, Lula was blunt about his view of the U.S. administration: “There’s no relationship.”
In the midst of these international tensions, Brazil’s internal politics are shifting rapidly. The 2026 presidential election looms large, but with Bolsonaro’s ineligibility and now his conviction, the opposition is scrambling to rally behind a new leader. According to the Atlantic Council, at least four governors with close political ties to Bolsonaro—Ratinho Júnior of Paraná, Tarcísio de Freitas of São Paulo, Romeu Zema of Minas Gerais, and Ronaldo Caiado of Goiás—have expressed interest in leading the opposition. The campaign, it seems, is already underway, with the right seeking to rebrand and regroup without its most polarizing figure at the helm.
Meanwhile, the push for amnesty persists, despite slim chances of success. Even if the bill were to pass, legal experts caution that it may not be sufficient to free Bolsonaro, given the gravity of the charges and the Supreme Court’s firm stance. The debate has exposed deep divisions within Brazilian society, with some viewing amnesty as a path to national reconciliation and others as a dangerous undermining of the rule of law.
Brazil’s democracy is still relatively young. The country only emerged from a decades-long military dictatorship in 1989, and since then, its institutions have weathered impeachment crises, corruption scandals, and now the unprecedented conviction of a former president for an attempted coup. As Ricardo Sennes, a senior fellow at the Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, noted, these events highlight both the challenges and the resilience of Brazil’s evolving democracy.
The coming months will be critical. As Congress debates the fate of the amnesty bill and the world watches the fallout from Bolsonaro’s conviction, Brazil faces a pivotal choice: whether to chart a course toward greater political stability and democratic maturity, or risk deepening polarization and international isolation. The outcome will shape not just the future of one man, but the future of a nation still finding its democratic footing.
