Brazil’s rapidly expanding betting market is undergoing a period of dramatic change, as new government regulations, shifting user habits, and a proposed tax hike converge to reshape the industry’s landscape. With the government poised to bar social welfare beneficiaries from licensed online betting, industry groups warning of a potential surge in illegal gambling, and senators pushing for a steep tax increase on betting operators, the stakes have never been higher for both players and policymakers.
According to a recent survey by Paag, a leading technology company in the payments sector, most Brazilian bettors are placing small wagers—71% of bets are for up to R$50, and four out of ten wagers don’t even exceed R$20. Yet, it’s the high rollers who move the most money: bets over R$100, though less frequent, account for a whopping 80% of the total value transacted on betting platforms. In contrast, bets up to R$20 represent just 7.3% of the total volume, as reported in Paag’s 2025 Q3 Market Insights Report, which analyzed financial transactions from July to September 2025.
The report, which covers roughly 30% of the Brazilian market, also paints a detailed picture of the country’s betting demographic. People aged 25 to 49 dominate the scene, making up 76% of all bettors. Meanwhile, individuals over 65—though representing less than 1% of transactions—tend to place the largest individual bets. São Paulo stands out as the state with the highest betting activity, accounting for 25% of all wagers, followed by Bahia and Sergipe, each with 17,000 bets per 100,000 inhabitants.
When do Brazilians like to place their bets? Nighttime, between 6 PM and 11 PM, sees the highest volume, making up 38% of all transactions. However, mornings are when the highest average-value bets are placed. João Fraga, CEO of Paag, explains: “Evenings are the time of greatest engagement and recurrence, while mornings concentrate more qualified bets. These patterns help us understand the industry’s operating rhythm and plan performance and accountability strategies.”
Interestingly, betting behavior follows the monthly financial cycle: the first half of the month is marked by higher-value transactions, while the second half sees more frequent but smaller bets. The third quarter of 2025, according to Paag, demonstrated a maturing market, with more predictable user behavior and a notable improvement in registration data quality—especially regarding identity verification, or Know Your Customer (KYC) protocols. This, Fraga notes, reflects “greater reliability in analytics and maturity in the industry’s use of strategic data.”
Yet, just as the market matures, new challenges are emerging. The National Association of Lotteries and Games (ANJL) recently sounded the alarm over a government measure set to take effect on November 1, 2025. This regulation will bar social welfare beneficiaries—including those in the Bolsa Família program—from participating in licensed online betting. ANJL’s research, conducted by Cruz Consulting between October 15 and 18, found that 45% of surveyed beneficiaries would switch to illegal betting platforms if the new rules are enforced. This is particularly concerning given that, as of October 27, 2025, illegal gambling already accounts for about 60% of all bets in Brazil, according to ANJL’s latest study.
Demographically, nearly 70% of these at-risk bettors are men, with the 25 to 34-year-old age group making up 40.8%. ANJL president Plínio Lemos Jorge has been vocal in his criticism of the government’s approach, warning that prohibiting access “could lead to the strengthening of unregulated sites, now the largest challenge for the government to control.” Jorge points out that while the Ministry of Finance has brought about 80 firms into legal compliance, “thousands of unlicensed platforms do their business freely, without checks and balances.”
Rather than outright bans, ANJL advocates for responsible gaming strategies. The association suggests educational campaigns, player verification, betting limits, and real-time monitoring as more effective ways to protect vulnerable users and keep them within the regulated environment. Their research also shows that 73.4% of surveyed beneficiaries support government regulation of the gambling sector, indicating a broad desire for structured oversight rather than blanket prohibitions.
To underscore its concerns, ANJL has submitted a Technical Note to the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA) of the Ministry of Finance. The document warns that automatic CPF blocking for Bolsa Família and Benefício de Prestação Continuada (BPC) participants could drive more users to unauthorized platforms, which lack consumer protections, oversight, and tax contributions. The association emphasizes the need for a balanced approach that protects at-risk groups while ensuring an effective regulatory regime.
As if these regulatory debates weren’t enough, the industry is also facing the prospect of a major fiscal shake-up. On October 28, 2025, Senator Sérgio Petecão introduced a bill in the Federal Senate proposing to temporarily increase the tax rate on fixed-odds betting operators from 12% to a hefty 27.5%. The proposed hike is designed as a stopgap measure to bolster public funding—especially for health care—until the government’s broader tax reform, including the new Selective Tax (Imposto Seletivo), is fully implemented.
Under Petecão’s proposal, 10% of the new tax revenue would be earmarked for the public healthcare system, with the remaining 17.5% going to other legally designated public priorities. The senator justifies the move by pointing to the explosive growth of the betting market, which processed around 50 billion reais in 2023. “We need to tax. Those who want to play, let them play—but games have to pay their way,” Petecão said, highlighting the importance of channeling some of the industry’s profits back into social welfare.
The bill is expected to pass through the Senate’s Economic Affairs and Social Affairs Committees before heading to a plenary vote. If approved, it would mark one of the largest temporary tax increases in the history of Brazilian gambling—a move in line with global trends of using leisure and entertainment taxation to fund public goods. The initiative is also seen as a bridge to the eventual implementation of the Selective Tax, which aims to target products and services with health or environmental risks, including gambling.
With the November 1 implementation date for the new restrictions looming, debate is intense among policymakers, industry leaders, and consumer advocates. At the heart of the discussion are questions about the best way to protect vulnerable populations, ensure responsible gaming, and capture much-needed public revenue without driving bettors into the shadows of the illegal market. As Brazil stands at this crossroads, the choices made in the coming weeks will have far-reaching implications for the country’s gambling landscape and the broader social fabric.
Against this backdrop of regulatory flux and fiscal innovation, Brazil’s betting sector is being pushed toward greater maturity, transparency, and social responsibility. Whether these measures will achieve their intended goals—or inadvertently fuel the very problems they seek to solve—remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the future of betting in Brazil is anything but a sure bet.
