Brazil’s democracy has been thrust into the global spotlight following the historic conviction of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced on September 11, 2025, to 27 years and three months in prison for orchestrating a failed coup to cling to power after his 2022 election defeat. The Supreme Court’s ruling, delivered by a panel of five justices, marks a defining moment not just for Brazil’s political future, but also for its relationship with the United States and the broader international community.
Bolsonaro’s fall from grace is nothing short of dramatic. Once hailed by supporters as a champion of conservative values and a staunch ally of former U.S. President Donald Trump, Bolsonaro now finds himself the first Brazilian leader ever convicted of attempting to overturn an election. According to Al Jazeera, the Supreme Court found him guilty on all five counts brought against him, including plotting to assassinate President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and his running mate, attacking Brazil’s democratic system, and encouraging the violent storming of government buildings on January 8, 2023.
The details of the plot, codenamed “Operation Green and Yellow Dagger,” revealed a concerted effort to nullify the election results under the guise of unfounded fraud claims. Prosecutors argued that Bolsonaro began laying the groundwork for the coup well before the 2022 election, proposing the plan to military commanders and sowing seeds of doubt about the integrity of Brazil’s electoral system. As BBC reported, the plot ultimately failed to gain enough military support, but it did spark the infamous January 8 riots, where thousands of Bolsonaro’s supporters stormed Congress, the Supreme Court, and the presidential palace in scenes eerily reminiscent of the January 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.
Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who presided over the trial, didn’t mince words about the gravity of the situation. “We are slowly forgetting that Brazil almost returned to its 20-year dictatorship because a criminal organisation, comprised of a political group, doesn’t know how to lose elections,” he declared before casting his decisive vote for conviction. His colleague, Justice Cármen Lúcia, echoed the sentiment, emphasizing that “this criminal case is almost a meeting point between Brazil and its past, its present and its future.” She insisted there should be no immunity for authoritarianism and asserted that ample evidence showed Bolsonaro acted with the intent of eroding democracy and sabotaging its institutions.
The verdict was not unanimous. The lone dissenting voice on the panel, Justice Luiz Fux, questioned the court’s jurisdiction and the sufficiency of the evidence, voting to acquit Bolsonaro. Nonetheless, the majority prevailed, and alongside Bolsonaro, seven of his alleged co-conspirators—including two former defense ministers, a former spy chief, and a former security minister—were also convicted. The Supreme Court’s decision further barred Bolsonaro from running for public office until 2060, a lifetime ban given his age of 70 and ongoing health issues.
Bolsonaro, who has been under house arrest since August as a flight risk, did not attend his sentencing in person. Before the verdict, he insisted the trial was a “witch-hunt” intended to prevent him from running in 2026, despite his earlier disqualification by Brazil’s electoral court for spreading false claims about the country’s electronic voting system. His lawyers decried the sentence as “absurdly excessive” and vowed to appeal, but legal experts cited by Al Jazeera suggest their options are limited.
The international response has been swift and contentious, with the U.S. government, under President Donald Trump, taking the extraordinary step of imposing a 50 percent tariff on Brazilian goods, framing it as retaliation for what he called Bolsonaro’s “persecution.” Trump, drawing a parallel with his own legal troubles, said, “That’s very much like they tried to do with me, but they didn’t get away with it.” He went on to describe the verdict as “a terrible thing,” adding, “I think it’s very bad for Brazil.” The U.S. State Department, led by Secretary Marco Rubio, not only sanctioned Brazilian officials—including Supreme Court justices—but also revoked U.S. visas held by key judicial figures and their families. Rubio took to social media to denounce the trial as a “witch-hunt” and threatened further retaliation, stating the U.S. would “respond accordingly.”
Brazil’s government, for its part, has pushed back hard. President Lula, who emerged victorious over Bolsonaro in the bitterly contested 2022 election, was unequivocal: “The defense of democracy in Brazil is a matter for Brazilians. We are a sovereign nation. We won’t accept interference or instruction from anyone.” Lula also dismissed the U.S. tariffs as “not only misguided but illogical,” and signaled that Brazil would not be cowed by threats from abroad. The foreign ministry echoed this defiance, stating that “threats like the one made by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, in a statement that attacks Brazilian authority and ignores the facts and the compelling evidence on record, will not intimidate our democracy.”
Domestically, the verdict has divided the nation. Bolsonaro’s supporters have rallied behind him, labeling the trial as political persecution and pushing for legislation that could grant him amnesty. Yet, this “banditry bill” has met fierce resistance from the public, with an estimated 400,000 people recently taking to the streets in protest. President Lula has vowed to veto any amnesty bill that reaches his desk, underscoring the deep rift in Brazilian society over the fate of its former leader.
Justice Alexandre de Moraes, undeterred by U.S. sanctions, reaffirmed the judiciary’s independence: “Respect comes from independence. A subservient, cowardly judiciary, one that makes deals just to calm the country down, is not independent.” His words reflect a broader determination within Brazil’s institutions to defend democracy against both internal and external pressures.
Bolsonaro’s presidency, from 2019 to 2022, was marked by populism, polarization, and a refusal to accept electoral defeat. As the Supreme Court found, he preferred to instigate a coup rather than concede, telling evangelical leaders, “I have three alternatives for my future: being arrested, killed, or victory. No man on Earth will threaten me.” The events since his defeat have put Brazil’s democracy to the test, but also served as a stark warning about the dangers of leaders who undermine democratic norms.
With Brazil’s relationship with the U.S. at a low point, and the country’s political landscape still deeply polarized, the road ahead is uncertain. Yet, as the world watches, Brazil’s ability to uphold the rule of law and resist authoritarian backsliding may well set an example for democracies everywhere facing similar threats.
For now, the conviction of Jair Bolsonaro stands as a decisive moment—one that will shape Brazil’s democracy, its international standing, and the global conversation about how to confront those who seek to overturn the will of the people.
