On September 26, 2025, Brazil’s Supreme Court delivered a historic verdict: former President Jair Bolsonaro, often dubbed the "Trump of the Tropics" by international media such as MoneyWeek Magazine, was sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison for orchestrating a conspiracy to overturn the 2022 presidential election and plotting violence against political figures. This judgment, which also barred Bolsonaro from holding public office until 2060, marks the first time in modern Brazilian history that a former head of state has been held criminally accountable for state crimes—a seismic shift in a country still wrestling with the legacy of its military dictatorship.
Bolsonaro’s conviction was the culmination of months of investigation and legal wrangling. According to Knewz.com, prosecutors presented evidence that the former president, along with seven co-conspirators—including two former defense ministers, a former spy chief, and a former security minister—plotted a coup with military commanders, spread false claims about the election system, and was aware of plans to assassinate President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. The failed coup attempt reached its crescendo on January 8, 2023, when Bolsonaro supporters stormed government buildings in Brasília. Authorities quickly restored order, arresting more than 1,500 people in the aftermath.
The Supreme Court’s decision was not unanimous: four justices voted to convict, while one, Luiz Fux, dissented. Justice Cármen Lúcia, who cast the decisive third vote, warned, “there was no immunity to authoritarianism.” Justice Alexandre de Moraes compared Bolsonaro’s actions to those of a criminal organization, saying they threatened to return Brazil to a dictatorship. The court’s majority concluded that Brazil’s democratic order had been at risk, and that Bolsonaro’s efforts to cling to power represented a direct assault on the rule of law.
Bolsonaro, 70, did not attend the sentencing, instead issuing a statement from house arrest calling the trial a “witch hunt” aimed at blocking any bid for the presidency in 2026. His legal team decried the sentence as “absurdly excessive” and vowed to appeal, though legal experts noted that appeals in such cases are difficult, especially when only one justice dissents. Ongoing legal proceedings will determine whether Bolsonaro remains under house arrest during the appeals process.
The verdict has sent shockwaves through Brazil’s political landscape. As NACLA reported, Bolsonaro’s allies in the lower house of parliament quickly moved to accelerate a bill granting amnesty to the former president and his supporters involved in the January 8 events. The so-called “PEC da Blindagem” (Shield Bill), a constitutional amendment that would have granted impunity to politicians accused of crimes, was ultimately rejected by the Senate earlier this week. The public response was swift and passionate: on September 21, tens of thousands of Brazilians marched through the streets, demanding justice and accountability and denouncing the amnesty proposal as a dangerous step toward impunity.
The struggle against impunity has deep roots in Brazil. The 1979 Amnesty Law, passed at the end of the military dictatorship, shielded those responsible for imprisoning, torturing, and disappearing political dissidents. Many families of victims have spent decades advocating for truth and accountability. Rose Michelle Rodrigues, a lawyer and member of the collective Filho(a)s e Neto(a)s por Memória, Verdade, e Justiça (Children and Grandchildren for Memory, Truth, and Justice), told NACLA, “The judgment of ex-President Jair Bolsonaro has a meaning that goes beyond the man. It connects directly with our historical struggle.”
Brazilian President Lula echoed this sentiment at the United Nations General Assembly on September 23, declaring, “A few days ago, for the first time in our 525-year history, an ex-head of state was convicted for violating the democratic rule of law.” Lula has firmly rejected calls for amnesty, promising to veto any attempt to pardon Bolsonaro or his allies. “There is no pacification with impunity,” he insisted, underscoring his administration’s commitment to upholding democratic norms.
Yet, the debate over amnesty remains fiercely contested. Bolsonaro’s supporters argue that pardoning those involved in the coup attempt is necessary for national reconciliation, while critics contend it would only perpetuate a cycle of impunity and embolden future threats to democracy. Rosa Cantal, a São Paulo-based lawyer and member of the Filho(a)s e Neto(a)s collective, warned, “To accept amnesty in this moment is to condone impunity and gives carte blanche for much greater horrors to take place.”
The Supreme Court’s ruling has energized Brazil’s movement for memory, truth, and justice. Iconic musicians such as Gilberto Gil, Caetano Veloso, and Chico Buarque headlined the September 21 protests, performing songs born of resistance to dictatorship. The demonstrations, described as a “Carnaval of Democracy,” drew on the spirit of the “Sem Anistia” (No Amnesty) movement and were supported by Lula, who wrote on social media, “I am on the side of the Brazilian people. Today’s protests demonstrate that the population wants neither impunity nor amnesty.”
International reaction to the verdict has been mixed. U.S. President Donald Trump, a close ally of Bolsonaro, compared the prosecution to his own legal battles, calling it “very surprising.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio labeled the ruling unjust and promised to “respond accordingly to this witch hunt.” Brazil’s foreign ministry, however, was quick to assert that “threats ... will not intimidate our democracy.” Trump’s administration has also imposed tariffs on Brazil, citing “judicial corruption,” and has alternated between political pressure and threats of economic retaliation—a strategy that has polarized opinion in both countries.
Despite the historic nature of the conviction, observers caution that Brazil’s democracy remains fragile. Felipe Lott, a historian and member of the Filho(a)s e Neto(a)s collective, noted, “Politics is a very unstable environment, so in the same way that [Bolsonaro] has now been condemned, it would not be difficult for him to revert this in the future.” Bolsonaro’s legal team may seek a reduced sentence on medical grounds, citing a recent skin cancer diagnosis, but he faces additional legal challenges—including a R$1 million fine for racist speech and cases related to misinformation and government misconduct during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The Supreme Court’s decision has also reignited calls to revisit the 1979 Amnesty Law. Many advocates hope that the precedent set by Bolsonaro’s conviction will prompt the court to revise the law, finally addressing the crimes of the dictatorship and preventing future abuses. As Rosa Cantal stressed, “Revising the Amnesty Law is also key to addressing contemporary issues of public security.”
Brazil’s ongoing battle for truth, memory, and accountability underscores the resilience—and the vulnerability—of its democratic institutions. As right-wing extremism and political polarization continue to challenge the country, the Supreme Court’s judgment stands as both a warning and a beacon: threats to democracy are never far away, but they will continue to meet resistance—in the courts, in the streets, and in the hearts of the Brazilian people.
