Brazil’s political landscape has been rocked by a historic court decision: the country’s Supreme Court has ordered the preemptive arrest of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is now preparing to serve a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup following his narrow defeat in the 2022 presidential election to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The decision, handed down on November 23, 2025, marks an extraordinary moment for a nation still grappling with the scars of a deadly pandemic, a deeply divided electorate, and enduring questions about justice and accountability.
For many Brazilians who lost loved ones to COVID-19, the news has brought a complex sense of vindication. Simone Guimarães, a retired teacher in Rio de Janeiro, is among them. She lost five relatives to the virus: her husband, sister, two brothers-in-law, and the godfather of her grandchild. The pandemic’s toll also claimed friends and neighbors. Waking to the news of Bolsonaro’s arrest, Guimarães told the Associated Press, “It’s a small beginning of justice starting to be served. Impunity has to end at some point. And in his case, we endured a lot.”
Social media erupted with remembrance posts, echoing a similar wave in September when the Supreme Court first convicted Bolsonaro. Notably, the legal case that led to his conviction was unrelated to his handling of the pandemic. Still, for families like Guimarães’s, the former president’s imprisonment feels like a reckoning—albeit an indirect one—for the suffering endured during Brazil’s COVID-19 crisis.
Diego Orsi, a translator from São Paulo, voiced a sentiment familiar to many. He worries that Bolsonaro’s conviction for coup-related crimes might overshadow the accountability many seek for the government’s pandemic response. “I feel a bit like the Nuremberg trials had convicted the Nazis for invading Poland, and not for genocide,” Orsi reflected. His cousin, Henrique Cavalari, was a staunch Bolsonaro supporter who ran a motorcycle repair shop. Cavalari died from COVID-19 complications in June 2021 at just 41. “He was newly married, paying rent on his business. He needed the money,” Orsi recounted. “But I was told one of the last things he said was to warn his parents to take care, that the disease was serious.”
Brazil’s pandemic experience was harrowing. The country has recorded more than 700,000 COVID-19 deaths since 2020—second only to the United States. In 2021, epidemiologists at the Federal University of Pelotas estimated that four out of five of those deaths could have been avoided if the Bolsonaro administration had fully embraced containment measures and accelerated vaccine procurement. Instead, Bolsonaro publicly questioned the reliability of vaccines, mocked contract terms, and once joked that Pfizer recipients would have no legal recourse if they “turned into alligators.” These comments, widely reported by outlets including the Associated Press, fueled public frustration as the nation faced vaccine shortages and a phased rollout that left many vulnerable people waiting for protection.
The delays had tragic consequences. Cavalari died just weeks before he would have been eligible for his first vaccine dose. The same fate befell the father of Fábio de Maria, a teacher in São Paulo, who died in May 2021 at age 65. “When he was admitted to the hospital, he was about 15 days away from being eligible for his first shot,” de Maria told the Associated Press. “That delay was fatal for him and many others.” De Maria blames Bolsonaro and other officials, but he notes that the former president’s conviction does not bring true justice for pandemic victims. “Many people feel vindicated, and I don’t blame them. Bolsonaro provoked a lot of anger in many people, including me. But I don’t believe there has been justice for those who died of COVID-19, because that is not why Bolsonaro was convicted.”
The pandemic’s impact on Bolsonaro’s political fortunes was profound. During the 2022 campaign, which he narrowly lost to Lula, television ads replayed footage of Bolsonaro mocking patients struggling to breathe—a symptom common among COVID-19 sufferers—and highlighted his dismissive comments about victims and their families. According to Eduardo Scolese, politics editor at Folha de S.Paulo during Bolsonaro’s term, “Bolsonaro lost because of his denialist stance during the pandemic. The margin was very narrow.” Scolese explained that the federal government was expected to coordinate Brazil’s early response, but Bolsonaro consistently downplayed the crisis. “No one knew how long it would last. Experts called for distancing, while he joined crowds,” Scolese said. State and local governments stepped in, imposing their own restrictions, and a dispute over authority reached the Supreme Court, which ultimately ruled that states and municipalities could enact their own sanitary rules. “That’s when Bolsonaro lost control. He began to believe everyone was against him, especially the Supreme Court,” Scolese added.
Efforts to hold Bolsonaro accountable for his pandemic response have not been entirely dormant. In October 2021, a Senate committee recommended charging him with charlatanism, inciting crime, misuse of public funds, and crimes against humanity. The case, however, languished until September 2025, when Supreme Court Justice Flávio Dino ordered police to expand the investigation. The details remain sealed, and the public waits to see whether further charges will be brought. For now, Bolsonaro’s conviction and impending imprisonment stem solely from his actions after the 2022 election—a fact not lost on those seeking broader justice.
Bolsonaro’s legal saga has also taken a personal turn. On November 21, 2025, his lawyers petitioned the Supreme Court to allow him to serve his sentence under house arrest, citing poor health. According to medical reports submitted by his legal team, Bolsonaro requires strict monitoring of his blood pressure and heart rate, regular tests, specific medications, and frequent visits from specialists including a cardiologist, pulmonologist, and gastroenterologist. The attorneys warned, “If the petitioner is sent to prison, his health will be at risk and he will not receive the medical care he needs.”
They also highlighted concerns raised by the Public Defender’s Office, which recently inspected a detention center in Brasilia and described its conditions as precarious. Bolsonaro has faced health challenges since being stabbed at a campaign event in 2018, and he underwent surgery for a bowel obstruction in April 2025. Since August, he has been under house arrest for violating court-imposed precautionary measures, and his legal team is expected to file another appeal soon after their most recent attempt was unanimously rejected by the Supreme Court.
As Brazil watches the next chapter unfold, the nation remains divided over Bolsonaro’s legacy. Some, like Guimarães, feel a measure of closure, while others, like Orsi and de Maria, believe the full reckoning for the pandemic’s devastation is still out of reach. The legal and political battles are far from over, but for now, the arrest of a former president stands as a watershed moment in Brazil’s ongoing struggle for justice and accountability.
