Brazil is once again at the center of global attention as its Supreme Court enters the final phase of a historic trial that could reshape the country’s political landscape for years to come. Former President Jair Bolsonaro, a polarizing figure whose tenure was marked by fierce rhetoric and deep divisions, now stands accused of plotting a coup d’état after his narrow defeat in the 2022 presidential election to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The verdict, expected within days, may not only determine Bolsonaro’s fate but also test the resilience of Brazil’s young democracy.
The drama unfolded on September 3, 2025, when Bolsonaro’s lawyers appeared before a panel of five Supreme Court justices to argue that their client had been denied a fair hearing. “We did not have access to the evidence, and much less had enough time to go through it,” lawyer Celso Vilardi told the court, according to reporting by Reuters. Vilardi insisted there was “not a single shred of evidence linking” Bolsonaro to the alleged plot to overturn the election results. The defense framed the proceedings as politically motivated, with another of Bolsonaro’s lawyers, as reported by BBC, declaring the charges were “political” and demanding an outright acquittal.
The stakes are enormous. If convicted, Bolsonaro could face up to 43 years in prison, as outlined by both BBC and GZERO. The former president and seven co-defendants are accused of leading an armed criminal organization, attempting to abolish the democratic rule of law, orchestrating a coup, damaging federal property, and deteriorating listed heritage. The allegations stretch back to before January 8, 2023, when thousands of Bolsonaro’s supporters stormed government buildings in Brasilia. Prosecutors allege that Bolsonaro and his inner circle had been plotting to subvert democracy as early as 2019, with federal police releasing an 884-page report on the evidence in November 2024 and formal charges filed by Prosecutor General Paulo Gonet in February 2025.
Among the most explosive claims is that Bolsonaro had “full knowledge” of a plan to assassinate Lula, his then-rival and president-elect, as well as Lula’s running mate and Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. According to BBC, much of the prosecution’s case hinges on evidence provided by Lieutenant Colonel Mauro Cid, a former top aide to Bolsonaro who signed a plea deal in exchange for a lighter sentence. The defense, however, has dismissed Cid’s testimony as lies, casting doubt on the reliability of the state’s witness.
Bolsonaro himself has denied any wrongdoing, steadfastly maintaining that the trial is a political witch hunt. He has not attended recent court sessions, citing health issues stemming from a stabbing injury suffered during his 2018 campaign—a detail confirmed by multiple sources, including GZERO and BBC. His absence has done little to dampen the fervor of his supporters, many of whom still believe he was the rightful winner of the 2022 election. According to GZERO, roughly 40% of Brazil’s electorate hold this belief, a testament to the enduring polarization that continues to shape the country’s political discourse.
The Supreme Court, for its part, has rejected allegations of bias. At the start of the hearings, Justice Alexandre de Moraes declared, “National sovereignty cannot, should not, and will never be vilified, negotiated or extorted,” as reported by Reuters. Nevertheless, Bolsonaro’s family has not shied away from confronting the judiciary. Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the former president’s son, has accused the court of bias, pointing out that one justice was Lula’s former justice minister and another had served as Lula’s lawyer. Flavio has also announced efforts to rally support in Congress for a broad amnesty law that would shield his father and the January 8 rioters from prosecution, telling reporters, “We will work for a broad, general, and unlimited amnesty.”
Meanwhile, Bolsonaro’s other son, Eduardo, has taken the family’s campaign international. Six months ago, Eduardo took leave from Congress and relocated to the United States with a singular mission: to persuade former U.S. President Donald Trump to intervene on his father’s behalf. According to GZERO, Eduardo’s efforts have yielded more attention than expected but have fallen short of securing the decisive support he sought. Still, Trump has not remained silent. He has imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports to the U.S. in protest against Bolsonaro’s prosecution and even sanctioned a Supreme Court justice involved in the case.
The U.S. angle has only added fuel to an already combustible situation. GZERO reports that further American sanctions are possible, including the potential classification of Brazilian organized crime groups as terrorist organizations—a move that would have significant implications for Brazil’s financial sector. President Lula, meanwhile, has gained some political momentum from Trump’s heavy-handed tactics and may pivot more decisively toward China, the Middle East, and the European Union, where negotiations on a long-stalled trade deal between the EU and Mercosur have recently shown new life.
The trial itself has become an international spectacle, watched closely by world leaders and analysts alike. For many, the proceedings represent a crucial test of Brazil’s ability to hold powerful figures accountable and to safeguard democratic norms in a country still haunted by memories of military dictatorship. “Some analysts and political leaders hope that the trial will reduce polarization and pacify the political landscape. However, that is wishful thinking,” says Chris Garman, Managing Director at Eurasia Group, as quoted by GZERO. He notes that the anti-establishment sentiment that propelled Bolsonaro to power in 2018 remains potent, and that the former president retains significant influence despite being banned from seeking office until 2030.
Indeed, Bolsonaro’s movement, though leaderless for now, is far from dormant. Supporters are planning nationwide protests on September 7, Brazil’s Independence Day, underscoring the enduring energy of his base. Polls suggest that Bolsonaro, were he eligible, would still be the strongest challenger to Lula in the 2026 presidential race. In his absence, speculation swirls around who he might endorse as his successor, with São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas emerging as a leading contender. As Garman observes, Bolsonaro’s “martyr status will cement his ‘kingmaker’ role in next year’s electoral cycle.”
The Supreme Court’s verdict, expected by September 12, will require a majority of three out of five justices to convict. If found guilty, Bolsonaro and his co-defendants can appeal to the full Supreme Court, but the immediate consequences—political, social, and diplomatic—are likely to be profound. For now, Brazil holds its breath, waiting to see whether its democracy can weather yet another storm.
