Bolivia, a country often overlooked in the grand chessboard of global politics, has suddenly found itself at the center of regional and financial attention. On September 1, 2025, the markets responded dramatically to early results from the country’s presidential election, which signaled a possible end to nearly three decades of dominance by the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party. Investors, political analysts, and ordinary Bolivians are all watching closely as the nation stands on the edge of what could be a historic political transformation.
Bolivia’s international dollar bonds rallied sharply, with the 2030 bond jumping more than 3 cents to 79.88 cents—making it the leader in JPMorgan’s emerging markets bond index, according to Devdiscourse. The optimism was sparked by official results showing socialist candidate Eduardo del Castillo securing just 3% of the presidential vote, a stunning low for a party that has shaped Bolivia’s modern political landscape. In contrast, centrist Rodrigo Paz and conservative Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga emerged as the leading contenders, with over 32% and nearly 27% of the votes, respectively.
These results have set the stage for a likely runoff. If no candidate surpasses the 40% threshold required for an outright victory, a second round is scheduled for October 19, 2025. The final results from the first round, held on August 17, are expected within a week, but the direction of the country’s political winds already seems clear.
For many observers, the collapse of MAS is the story of the election. As Leonardo Vivas, a professor of political economy at Leslie University in Massachusetts, told Fair Observer, "The party founded by Morales in the 1990s and dominant for nearly 30 years is now facing its demise." The decline of MAS is not just a matter of electoral math; it signals the end of one of Latin America’s longest-running political hegemonies. Vivas argues that this could reshape geopolitics in the region, breaking a cycle that has seen leftist parties hold sway in Bolivia for a generation.
The reasons for MAS’s fall are complex, but the weakened roles of former President Evo Morales and incumbent President Luis Arce are central. Morales, once a towering figure who oversaw what Vivas calls the "Bolivian miracle"—a period when gas exports fueled poverty reduction and indigenous inclusion—has been sidelined by legal troubles and a constitutional court ruling that bars him from running. Meanwhile, Arce, the architect of Bolivia’s earlier economic boom, chose not to seek reelection amid plummeting approval ratings and a deepening financial crisis marked by exchange controls, high inflation, and slowing growth.
With Morales refusing to endorse MAS’s current candidates and even calling for new elections, the party found itself split and adrift. Both Senate president Andronico Rodriguez and Arce’s former interior minister, who ran as MAS candidates, performed poorly and will not advance to the runoff. The opposition, by contrast, appears energized and united. Samuel Doria Medina, a moderate businessman, campaigned on a platform of national unity, while Quiroga, a former president, has promised IMF-backed reforms and economic stabilization.
The economic backdrop to this political drama is bleak. Bolivia faces high inflation, low reserves, and impending debt payments. The days when indigenous identity and social inclusion defined the national conversation have given way to a focus on economic hardship. As Vivas explains, "Economic hardship—falling gas revenues, high inflation and slow growth—has replaced identity as the defining theme." Younger, urban voters, less attached to the ideological battles of the past, are gravitating toward opposition candidates who promise hope for the future.
This generational and geographic shift is reflected in voting patterns. Morales still commands loyalty in the highlands, but lowland communities are leaning right, further accelerating MAS’s decline. The result is a political landscape where the old certainties have crumbled, and new alliances are being forged in real time.
The financial markets have taken notice. Tellimer, a research firm, upgraded its recommendation on Bolivia’s bonds to "buy" following the election results, betting that a new government could stabilize the economy and perhaps even secure an IMF program. Quiroga, in particular, is seen as a potential stabilizer thanks to his experience with the IMF and World Bank. Investors are hopeful that a centrist or conservative victory could avert a debt default and put Bolivia back on a sustainable economic path.
Yet, the story is not just about economics and politics. The role of the military, always a concern in Bolivian affairs, appears to be receding. The army’s involvement in the 2019 ouster of Morales cast a long shadow, but as Vivas told Fair Observer, "today’s army plays little role." A supposed coup attempt in 2024 was quickly dismissed as the work of a single general, Juan José Zúñiga, and was rejected by both society and the president. Compared to the events of 2019, the military now seems content to remain in the barracks, and few expect it to influence this year’s election.
The international dimension adds another layer of intrigue. The United States, once a major player in Latin American affairs, is now largely absent, its attention diverted by other global crises. China, which has significant trade links with Bolivia, is treading cautiously after painful experiences with unpaid investments in Venezuela. Brazil, under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has floated the idea of using BRICS as an alternative source of financing for Bolivia, but as Vivas notes, such programs remain untested and are unlikely to materialize unless Bolivia’s next government aligns closely with BRICS priorities.
Despite the uncertainty, there is a sense of cautious optimism. Vivas concludes that "Bolivia has a real chance, no matter who wins, to reset its politics and rebuild its economy." The 2025 election could mark both the end of an era dominated by MAS and the beginning of a more balanced, democratic cycle. Whether the country will seize this opportunity remains to be seen, but for now, Bolivia stands at a crossroads, its future hanging in the balance as the world watches.
With the final results and a possible runoff still to come, all eyes remain fixed on La Paz. The stakes are high, not just for Bolivia, but for the wider region, as the country’s next steps could reshape the political and economic landscape of Latin America for years to come.
