Bolivia, long a stronghold for leftist politics in Latin America, has experienced a seismic political shift. On August 17, 2025, the country’s general election ended the two-decade dominance of the socialist Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party, setting the stage for a dramatic runoff between a centrist and a right-wing candidate. The result not only signals a major change for Bolivia but also offers a cautionary tale for those who see socialism as a panacea—especially as debates over leftist policies continue to swirl in the United States and beyond.
For twenty years, Bolivia stood out in the region. While neighboring democracies swung between left and right, MAS, founded by former President Evo Morales, held a tight grip on national leadership—except for a brief, inconclusive episode in 2019. But this year, MAS’s fortunes crumbled. Right-wing lawmakers swept into the legislature, and the presidential contest advanced to a runoff scheduled for October 19, 2025. The two candidates left standing? Former President Jorge Quiroga, representing the right, and Senator Rodrigo Paz, a centrist who has danced between ideological lines throughout his career.
So, what triggered this dramatic reversal? According to Foreign Policy, Bolivia is in the throes of an economic crisis, with inflation soaring above 20 percent annually. The crisis has been compounded by depleted foreign exchange reserves, shortages of fuel and medicines, and mounting government debt. In this climate, MAS found itself not only battered by economic woes but also riven by internal discord. Morales, blocked from running again by term limits and a court ruling, went so far as to instruct his supporters to spoil their ballots rather than back the MAS candidate, Eduardo Del Castillo. The result was catastrophic for the party: Del Castillo garnered just 3.1 percent of the first-round vote, barely enough to keep MAS officially registered.
This electoral collapse wasn’t entirely unexpected. Pollsters had widely predicted MAS’s defeat, but the details surprised many. Most forecasts suggested two right-wing candidates would advance to the runoff. Instead, Rodrigo Paz, who pitched himself as a centrist and championed what he called “capitalism for everyone,” surged ahead in the final days. Paz’s campaign focused on cutting red tape for businesses and extending new lines of credit to Bolivians—a marked departure from the MAS era’s heavy state control and regulatory barriers.
One key factor in Paz’s late-breaking success was his choice of running mate. Edman Lara, a former police officer expelled in 2024 for exposing bribery, became a social media sensation with his candid TikTok videos denouncing corruption in Bolivia’s security forces. As political analyst Gustavo Pedraza told Bloomberg Línea, Lara “won over the voters, above all the undecided ones.” The duo’s anti-corruption stance resonated in a country where, as the Foundation for Economic Education notes, government bloat and inefficiency have become the norm—Bolivia expanded from three ministries to a staggering 17, plus 22 vice ministries, during the MAS years.
Despite the high stakes and heated rhetoric, the August 17 vote went off smoothly. International observers described the process as peaceful and orderly—a rare bright spot in a region often marred by contested results. No candidate challenged the outcome, a sign that Bolivia’s democracy, though battered, remains resilient.
Both Paz and Quiroga now face a daunting task: steering Bolivia out of economic turmoil and redefining its place on the world stage. Under MAS, Bolivia favored South American cooperation and sought to balance against U.S. influence by courting Russia and China. Yet the country remained relatively closed, with high barriers to foreign investment and tight state control over key industries—most notably lithium.
Bolivia holds the world’s largest known reserves of lithium, a mineral critical for electric vehicle batteries and the global energy transition. But MAS’s focus on state ownership and limited partnerships meant that, despite this natural bounty, little lithium was actually mined. Both Paz and Quiroga have pledged to change that. Paz envisions developing the sector in partnership with neighboring countries, while Quiroga favors a free trade zone to attract international investment, particularly from Chile and Argentina. Both agree that local processing and industrialization of lithium are essential for Bolivia’s future prosperity.
Trade policy is another dividing line. Bolivia joined the South American customs union Mercosur in 2024, a move that both candidates see as a springboard for greater international engagement. Paz wants to build on these ties and pull Bolivia out of what he calls “international isolation.” Quiroga, for his part, has criticized Mercosur as a “prison” due to its common tariffs, arguing for more flexible trade arrangements. Both have also advocated for improved economic relations with the United States, which currently imposes a 15 percent tariff on Bolivian goods.
The implications of Bolivia’s political shift extend far beyond its borders. As The Hill points out, the MAS defeat is being watched closely by American progressives and young Democrats, many of whom are enthusiastic about socialism. The Bolivian experience, critics argue, underscores the risks of heavy state intervention, nationalization of industries, and burdensome taxation. During the MAS years, Bolivia’s ranking in the World Bank’s “Doing Business” report plummeted to 150 out of 190 countries. The proliferation of state-run enterprises—over 60, according to the Foundation for Economic Education—created a drag on productivity and opened the door to widespread corruption. Bolivia now ranks 133 out of 180 nations in corruption, with Venezuela, another socialist experiment, faring even worse at 178.
Supporters of market-oriented reforms argue that the Bolivian case fits a broader pattern. As The Hill notes, the U.S. economy grew by 87 percent between 2008 and 2023, compared to just 13.5 percent in the European Union, a gap attributed to greater productivity, labor market flexibility, and lighter regulations in the United States. High-tax states like New York and California have seen population losses, while low-tax states such as Florida and Texas have gained residents. The lesson, some say, is that growth and prosperity are better served by encouraging private enterprise and limiting government’s reach.
Historical anecdotes bolster this argument. In 1976, Swedish author Astrid Lindgren famously protested her country’s confiscatory tax rates—at one point over 100 percent—by penning a satirical fairytale. The public outcry led to the ousting of Sweden’s Social Democratic party after decades in power, a reminder that even the most generous welfare states have their limits.
As Bolivia prepares for its October runoff, the world will be watching to see whether the country can chart a new course—one that balances economic openness with social equity, and avoids the pitfalls of both unchecked state control and unfettered market forces. For now, Bolivians have made their message clear: after twenty years, it’s time for something different.