Boeing, the storied American aerospace giant, is once again under the spotlight as a confluence of regulatory decisions, investor optimism, and industry forecasts shape its outlook for the coming years. The company’s recent share price surge, coupled with a pivotal move by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), has not only energized Boeing’s prospects but also brought a wave of attention to its key suppliers and the broader aerospace sector.
On October 17, 2025, the FAA announced after market close that Boeing could increase production of its 737 MAX aircraft to 42 planes per month, effectively lifting the production rate caps that had hampered output for months. According to Investing.com, this decision was widely anticipated by investors, but its confirmation provided a jolt of positive momentum throughout the aerospace supply chain. The 737 MAX, a workhorse for airlines worldwide, had faced intense scrutiny and regulatory hurdles following past safety incidents, but the FAA’s green light signaled renewed confidence in Boeing’s ability to meet demand and recover operationally.
This regulatory clarity was not lost on Wall Street. As reported by Simply Wall St, Boeing shares closed at $217.77 as of October 23, 2025, marking a 2.8% gain in the past week and a remarkable 40.3% increase over the previous 12 months. For the year, returns soared to an impressive 26.7%. The surge reflects not just market momentum but also a shifting narrative around Boeing’s risk profile, as operational progress and a more stable order book instill greater confidence among investors.
Much of this optimism is rooted in a wave of renewed aircraft orders from major airlines, as carriers seek to modernize their fleets and capitalize on resurgent air travel demand. According to Simply Wall St, the buzz around Boeing is also tied to the company’s improving fundamentals and the expectation of a turnaround in its financial performance. Presently, Boeing’s Free Cash Flow (FCF) stands at a loss of roughly $8.1 billion, a lingering effect of its recent challenges. However, analysts predict a dramatic reversal, with projections of $12.8 billion in annual FCF by the end of 2029. Over the next decade, FCF is expected to continue climbing, setting the stage for a sustained recovery.
To gauge Boeing’s true value, analysts employ a variety of methods. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis, which estimates a company’s intrinsic value by projecting future cash flows and discounting them to present value, paints an especially bullish picture. Simply Wall St’s DCF analysis values Boeing at $320.65 per share—implying that, at its current price, the stock is undervalued by 32.1%. That’s a significant margin, suggesting that investors may be underestimating Boeing’s long-term potential. "Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Boeing is undervalued by 32.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks," the report notes.
Of course, valuation is never just a numbers game. Another popular metric, the Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio, compares a company’s market value to its sales—a useful approach when profits are volatile or a company is transitioning back to profitability. Boeing’s P/S ratio is currently 2.19x, slightly above the peer average of 2.07x but below the industry average of 3.06x. Simply Wall St’s proprietary "Fair Ratio" for Boeing is 1.92x, factoring in sales growth outlook, risk profile, industry characteristics, profit margins, and market capitalization. The moderate premium over the fair ratio is seen as reasonable, with the difference less than 0.3x. "Comparing Boeing’s current P/S of 2.19x with its Fair Ratio of 1.92x suggests the stock trades at a moderate premium, though not excessively so. Since the difference is less than 0.3x, this valuation appears broadly reasonable," analysts write.
Investors are also encouraged to consider the "narrative" behind Boeing’s numbers. Some see strong air travel demand and a record order backlog driving rapid revenue and margin recovery, with fair value targets as high as $287 per share. Others, more cautious, point to production delays and execution risks, placing fair value closer to $150 per share. The truth, as always, likely lies somewhere in between. As Simply Wall St explains, "Your Narrative puts you in control of which story, and which price, makes the most sense for you."
Meanwhile, the FAA’s decision to lift production caps on the 737 MAX has ripple effects far beyond Boeing’s own balance sheet. According to an analysis from Truist Securities cited by Investing.com, four key aerospace suppliers stand to benefit from the ramp-up in production: Astronics Corporation (ATRO), Hexcel Corporation (HXL), Howmet Aerospace (HWM), and Woodward, Inc. (WWD). Truist has assigned bullish price targets for each, reflecting expectations for growth as Boeing increases its output. Specifically, Truist maintains a $58 price target for ATRO, representing a 14x EV/EBITDA multiple on 2026 estimated EBITDA of $166.9 million. For HXL, the price target is $217, based on a 34x EV/EBITDA multiple on 2026 estimated EBITDA of $2.71 billion—a premium justified by the company’s strong operational record and positive cash generation outlook.
Howmet Aerospace (HWM) is valued at a $75 price target, using a 29.9x multiple on 2026 estimated EPS of $2.51. This is a discount to HWM’s five-year historical forward average but exceeds the peer group average, thanks to the company’s high wide-body exposure and margin expansion potential. Woodward, Inc. (WWD) receives a $294 price target, based on a 38x multiple of calendar year 2026 EBITDA estimate of $761 million. This premium reflects expectations for continued operational improvements and margin expansion.
But with opportunity comes risk. Truist Securities highlights several potential pitfalls, including future production rate changes, execution issues within recently acquired business units, ongoing patent litigation, airline discretionary spending levels, and the pace of global aviation recovery. For suppliers, risks also include raw material procurement challenges—especially metals—labor constraints, economic downturns, defense spending reductions, and macroeconomic factors impacting demand. For Boeing, investor sentiment remains influenced by both the promise of a robust recovery and lingering concerns over execution and regulatory scrutiny.
As the aerospace sector pivots into a new phase of growth, the stakes are high for Boeing and its partners. The FAA’s recent decision may have unlocked new production potential, but the path forward will depend on Boeing’s ability to deliver on its backlog, restore its reputation, and navigate the complex web of supply chain, regulatory, and economic challenges that define the modern aviation industry. For investors, the story is far from over—but the next chapter is already unfolding.
