Bill Gates, the billionaire philanthropist and Microsoft co-founder, has long been a prominent voice in the conversation about climate change. But in a move that’s sparked both praise and controversy, Gates has recently shifted his tone, arguing that while climate change is a grave challenge, it will not spell the end of humanity. Instead, he’s urging world leaders and activists to redirect their focus toward fighting poverty, disease, and hunger—particularly in the world’s poorest countries—while maintaining, but not prioritizing, efforts to reduce carbon emissions.
In a blog post published on Monday, October 27, 2025, Gates wrote, “Although climate change will have serious consequences—particularly for people in the poorest countries—it will not lead to humanity’s demise.” He cautioned against what he termed a “doomsday outlook,” which he believes has led to an excessive focus on near-term emission goals at the expense of broader, potentially more impactful efforts to improve human welfare. “Their biggest problems—as they’ve always been—are poverty and disease,” Gates continued, emphasizing the importance of addressing these issues head-on.
The timing of Gates’ message is no accident. The essay serves as a pointed callout to attendees of the upcoming United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30), scheduled for November 2025 in Brazil. With global attention set to focus once again on climate action, Gates is urging delegates, policymakers, and activists to “refocus on the metric that should count even more than emissions and temperature change: improving lives.”
This is not the first time Gates has weighed in on the climate crisis. He’s studied the issue for over a decade, founded Breakthrough Energy in 2015—an investment vehicle that has poured billions into clean-energy companies—and authored the 2021 book How to Avoid a Climate Disaster. Gates has personally invested over $2 billion in green technology and has consistently advocated for innovation as the key to solving the climate crisis. Yet, his latest essay marks a notable shift from his earlier, more alarmist tone.
In a 2021 interview with CBS News’ Norah O’Donnell, Gates warned, “If we don’t reduce emissions, then the death toll would be even worse near the equator, and the unrest would be global in nature.” He described climate change as “way greater than the pandemic,” requiring an “unprecedented” level of cooperation. But now, Gates is cautioning against letting fears of an apocalyptic future dictate policy and philanthropic priorities. “People will be able to live and thrive on Earth for the foreseeable future,” he wrote in his recent memo.
Gates’ argument is nuanced: he is not dismissing the dangers of climate change, nor is he advocating for abandoning climate action. Rather, he’s calling for a more balanced approach that considers the day-to-day realities faced by the world’s most vulnerable populations. He proposes that scientists and policymakers should consider human well-being—not just global temperature—as the primary metric for success in the battle against climate change.
“Climate change, disease, and poverty are all major problems,” Gates wrote. “We should deal with them in proportion to the suffering they cause.” He pointedly criticized recent funding cuts to USAID, the U.S. international aid agency, which had provided $8 billion annually for food and medicine in developing countries. Gates argued that these cuts threaten to inflict “potentially lasting global damage” in the fight against famine and preventable sickness. “Our chief goal should be to prevent suffering, particularly for those in the toughest conditions who live in the world’s poorest countries,” he said.
Gates’ essay has generated a flurry of responses from climate scientists, policymakers, and fellow philanthropists. Some have applauded his call for pragmatism and his emphasis on adaptation and resilience. Timothy Gallaudet, a retired Rear Admiral and former head of weather forecasting for the U.S. Navy, told CBS News, “There’s so much misinformation in the climate space now, it’s a real shame.” He believes that moving away from “climate doomsday alarmism” and focusing on adaptation and technological improvements is more realistic and practical.
Others, however, have sharply criticized Gates’ position as underestimating the interconnectedness of climate change with other global challenges. Dr. Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech University, argued, “Just give me a list of people’s top 10 things to worry about, and I can tell you how climate change is making every single one of those top 10 things worse.” Similarly, Dr. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, called Gates’ memo a “breathtaking misread” of the magnitude of the consequences the world could face with continued warming, particularly for the global poor.
Michael Mann, Director of the Penn Center for Science, Sustainability & the Media, was even more direct: “There is no greater threat to developing nations than the climate crisis. He’s got this all backwards.” Jennifer Francis, senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, acknowledged humanity’s resilience but insisted that investment must continue to focus on both “curing the disease (emissions of heat-trapping gases)” and “treating the symptoms,” which include improving health, hunger, infrastructure, and ecosystems.
Despite the criticism, Gates maintains that his position is not a reversal but an evolution in response to changing global realities. He emphasized that every tenth of a degree of warming prevented is beneficial, writing, “Every tenth of a degree of heating that we prevent is hugely beneficial because a stable climate makes it easier to improve people’s lives.” Yet, he insists that the world must not neglect the immediate needs of those suffering from poverty and disease as it pursues long-term climate goals.
Ted Nordhaus, founder and executive director of the Breakthrough Institute (not to be confused with Gates’ Breakthrough Energy), echoed some of Gates’ sentiments. He told CBS News, “We’ve always adapted, that’s why we have humans living across huge variances in climatic zones. I think the point of Gates’ letter is we’re actually making a fair amount of progress here to reduce emissions and continuing to be more resilient.”
As the world prepares for the COP30 summit in Brazil, Gates’ intervention has set the stage for a renewed debate over climate priorities. Should the world continue to pour resources into ambitious emission-cutting targets, or is it time to rebalance efforts toward immediate improvements in health, agriculture, and resilience for the world’s poorest? Gates’ essay, and the reactions it has provoked, ensure that this question will be front and center in the weeks to come.
For now, Gates’ message is clear: climate change is a serious problem, but it’s not the only one. The fight to improve lives—especially for those facing the harshest conditions—must remain at the heart of the world’s response to a warming planet.
