As India’s political landscape continues to shift after the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) recent win in Bihar, questions are swirling about whether this electoral success could be replicated in other states, particularly in West Bengal and Kerala. The aftermath of the Bihar verdict has sparked debates not just about the results themselves, but about the methods and machinery that shaped them—and whether similar tactics might influence upcoming contests elsewhere.
In Bihar, the NDA’s victory was marked by controversy and suspicion. According to The Federal, MA Baby, general secretary of the Communist Party of India (Marxist), or CPI(M), highlighted a significant increase in Left representation, noting, “The CPI(M) has one member in the Bihar Assembly and the CPI(ML) has two. It is marginal, but still a 50 percent increase over what you mentioned.” Yet, this modest gain was overshadowed by broader concerns about the integrity of the process.
MA Baby and other opposition figures have voiced serious doubts about the fairness of the Bihar elections. They pointed to a confluence of factors: the timing of government cash transfers, the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, and the alleged misuse of state resources. Over one crore women in Bihar received Rs 10,000 each shortly before voting—a move Baby described as a “bribe,” explaining, “Our objection is that people’s entitlements were given in a way that looked like an election-time bribe, after long neglect, generating illusions just before voting.”
He further alleged that the SIR was “targeted at marginalised, downtrodden sections, minorities, and women,” and that this, combined with the cash transfers, “made the field highly uneven.” The CPI(M) leader stopped short of calling the election outright rigged but was blunt: “Everything taken together, I have serious doubts about the genuineness of the Bihar verdict.”
These doubts are not confined to the Left. Even sociologist and INDIA bloc supporter Yogendra Yadav has pointed out, as The Federal reported, the formidable organizational strength marshaled by the BJP, Janata Dal (United), and their allies. The Union home minister’s alleged intervention to force independent candidates to withdraw added another layer of suspicion, suggesting a “double engine” of central and state interference not for development, but to “subvert a genuinely democratic electoral process.”
Against this backdrop, speculation has grown about whether the NDA’s Bihar playbook could work in West Bengal. Yet, as CounterCurrents notes, the political terrain in West Bengal is markedly different. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has described the ongoing SIR of electoral rolls as “unplanned, chaotic and dangerous,” and has called for it to be halted. Despite her protest to the Chief Election Commissioner, hopes for compliance appear slim.
West Bengal’s politics, shaped by a strong sense of regional identity and a tradition of resistance to outside influence, stands apart from Bihar’s. The state does not fall within the Hindi belt; its voters have historically favored local leaders over national celebrities. This dynamic has posed a unique challenge for the BJP, which, unlike in Bihar, lacks a strong regional ally or leader in the state. Attempts by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to connect with Bengali voters—such as donning attire reminiscent of Nobel laureate Rabindranath Tagore—failed to sway the electorate in the last assembly polls.
Mamata Banerjee’s strategic independence has also played a role. She has refused to align with Congress for state elections, reasoning that such an alliance would only dilute the Trinamool Congress Party’s (TCP) strength. “Aligning with [Congress] would be equivalent to only decreasing strength of Trinamool Congress Party in winning votes as well as seats,” CounterCurrents observed. This approach, while isolating her from the broader INDIA bloc, has proven effective in the unique context of West Bengal.
The BJP’s primary objective in the upcoming West Bengal assembly elections is to unseat Banerjee and prevent her from securing a fourth term. But, as CounterCurrents points out, the party is at a disadvantage. With no popular regional figure to rally Bengali voters and with the state’s strong regional consciousness, replicating Bihar’s results seems a tall order. “BJP is certainly going to try hard, but winning assembly elections in West Bengal may not be like it has been in Bihar!” the article concludes.
Amid these state-level battles, the broader question of the Left’s future looms large. MA Baby acknowledged the Left’s electoral decline but insisted on its continued relevance: “People often ask, ‘What is the future of the Left?’ My counter-question is: what is the future without the Left?” He emphasized the party’s commitment to mobilizing marginalized communities and flagged the need for introspection within the INDIA bloc, especially after some members contested against each other in Bihar, undermining the appearance of unity.
Kerala, now seen as the Left’s last stronghold, faces its own set of challenges. The Left Democratic Front (LDF) government, led by Pinarayi Vijayan, has been lauded for eradicating extreme poverty—less than 1 percent of the population is affected, compared to 15–30 percent in other states. “Kerala is the only and first state in India where extreme poverty could be fully eradicated,” Baby claimed, attributing this to both historical reforms and ongoing policies.
Yet, the LDF’s position is threatened by what Baby calls a “squeeze” from the Centre: financial powers are being “systematically assaulted and confiscated,” and governors are used to interfere with state governments. The SIR exercise has also created pressure on Booth Level Officers, but Baby expressed confidence in Kerala’s political consciousness to resist outside “machinations.”
On the judicial front, Baby criticized the Supreme Court’s recent advisory opinion regarding governors and state legislation, arguing it undermines earlier efforts to hold governors accountable for stalling bills. “These authoritarian trends, with neo-fascist tendencies, will fray national integration in our country,” he warned.
As the dust settles in Bihar and the focus shifts to West Bengal and Kerala, the stakes for India’s democracy remain high. The controversies surrounding electoral processes, the balance between regional and national identities, and the resilience of opposition parties like the Left will all shape the country’s political future in the months ahead.
