The political landscape of Bihar stands at a pivotal juncture as the state braces for the results of its 2025 Assembly Elections. With the counting of votes scheduled for Friday, November 14, anticipation and speculation are running high, fueled by record-breaking voter turnout, combative rhetoric from all major parties, and a flurry of exit polls that point to a potentially decisive victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
The Election Commission of India (ECI) has lauded the conduct of this year’s election, noting that Bihar registered a historic voter turnout of 66.91%—the highest since 1951. The polling, conducted in two phases on November 6 and November 11, saw 65.08% turnout in the first phase and a remarkable 69.20% in the second. Notably, women voters outpaced men, with female participation rates reaching 71.78% and men at 62.98%. In some districts, the gender gap was especially pronounced: Supaul recorded a 20.71% difference, with 83.69% of women casting ballots compared to 62.98% of men, according to ECI data cited by Hindustan Times.
District-level data reflected a surge in civic engagement across Bihar. Kishanganj led with a stunning 76.26% turnout, followed closely by Katihar (75.23%), Purnia (73.79%), Supaul (70.69%), Purvi Champaran (69.02%), and Banka (68.91%). Nawada, meanwhile, saw the lowest participation at 57.11%. The ECI underscored the smooth conduct of the polls, reporting zero repolls across all 90,740 booths—a feat not seen in decades.
As the votes are being counted, the state’s fate hangs in the balance between the NDA, led by incumbent Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, and the Mahagathbandhan (MGB), helmed by Tejashwi Yadav. The contest has been further complicated by the presence of the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), led by Prashant Kishor, though most exit polls suggest its impact will be minimal.
Exit polls have dominated the pre-result narrative, with nearly all major agencies predicting a comfortable victory for the NDA. Axis My India projects the NDA to win between 121 and 141 seats, with the MGB securing 98 to 118 seats and the JSP up to two. Today’s Chanakya goes further, forecasting 160 seats (+/-12) for the NDA and 77 (+/-13) for the MGB. Other agencies, such as JVC, Matrize, People’s Insight, and Dainik Bhaskar, have offered similar projections, with the NDA’s seat count consistently above the majority mark of 122 in the 243-member Assembly. A combined poll of polls places the NDA at around 148 seats and the MGB at about 88, as reported by The Times of India and Indian Express.
Despite the near-universal consensus among pollsters, both camps are exuding confidence. NDA leaders, including Deputy Chief Minister Vijay Kumar Sinha and union minister Giriraj Singh, have predicted not only victory but the possibility of surpassing previous records. Sinha, speaking to ANI, declared, “People of Bihar have voted for double-engine government,” while Giriraj Singh claimed the NDA would win more seats than in 2010, when it secured 206.
On the other side, the MGB and its allies have dismissed the exit polls outright. RJD leader and chief ministerial candidate Tejashwi Yadav argued that the exit polls “began to emerge while voting was still underway.” He asserted, “We are completely confident that we are forming the government with a clear majority... If the Administration repeats their 2020 mistake again, or anyone crosses their limit, does something unconstitutional and unfair, and if any official acts on anyone's orders, then the public will take care of it.”
Other opposition leaders have echoed this skepticism. Prashant Kishor, chief of the JSP, called the exit polls “fake” and expressed confidence in a “historic change” for Bihar. Meanwhile, Congress general secretary KC Venugopal urged patience, stating, “Let us wait for the real results.” Even more pointed was AAP’s Sanjay Singh, who alleged, “It’s undeniable that 80 lakh votes were stolen in Bihar. 80 lakh voters were deprived of their right to vote.” Such claims, though unsubstantiated, have added to the charged atmosphere ahead of counting day.
The campaign period and its aftermath have not been without controversy. On November 13, Bihar DGP Vinay Kumar ordered an FIR against RJD leader Sunil Singh for an ‘inflammatory’ remark in which Singh warned, “If you defeat the person whom the public has given their mandate, the same scenes you witnessed on the roads in Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka will be seen on the roads of Bihar as well.” The comment, widely circulated, drew condemnation from NDA leaders and prompted security agencies to tighten arrangements at all 46 counting centers across the state.
Allegations regarding the integrity of the voting process have also surfaced. The RJD claimed that a truck “allegedly loaded with EVMs” was smuggled into a counting center in Sasaram. However, Rohtas District Magistrate Udita Singh clarified to ANI that the truck was carrying only empty boxes, and the incident was resolved transparently in the presence of party representatives.
Looking back, the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections saw the NDA clinch 125 seats against the MGB’s 110, with the JD(U) and BJP as the principal NDA partners, and the RJD and Congress leading the opposition. This year, the stakes are even higher, with Nitish Kumar aiming for another term and Tejashwi Yadav hoping to orchestrate a political upset.
The Election Commission has extended the Model Code of Conduct in Patna until November 16 and implemented a ban on victory processions to maintain law and order following the results. As the state awaits the outcome, the sense of anticipation is palpable. Will Bihar endorse continuity under Nitish Kumar, or will a new chapter begin under Tejashwi Yadav’s leadership? The answer will soon be revealed as the votes are tallied and the will of the people comes to light.
For now, Bihar stands as a testament to vibrant democratic participation—record turnout, spirited debate, and a contest that has captured the imagination of millions. Friday’s results will not just decide the composition of the next government but will also shape the course of Bihar’s future for years to come.
