As Bihar approaches the decisive second phase of its 2025 Assembly elections, the political temperature in the state and beyond is reaching a fever pitch. With various India-Nepal border points sealed for 72 hours from 6 pm on November 9, authorities are taking no chances on security ahead of the November 11 polling, according to Mahottari Assistant Chief District Officer Sanjay Kumar Pokhrel, who told ANI, "From a security perspective, we have halted border crossings." This move underscores the high stakes and intense scrutiny surrounding the election, which is not just a local contest but a national spectacle, thanks to Bihar’s reputation as the laboratory of India’s most complex caste politics, as highlighted by News18.
The first phase of voting already set the tone for a historic contest, registering a record 65% turnout—the highest ever in Bihar’s electoral history. The final phase, scheduled for November 11, is expected to draw equally robust participation, with results set for November 14. But why does an election in Bihar command such attention across the country? The answer lies in the state’s unique political DNA: a vibrant, unpredictable mix of coalition-building and caste arithmetic that has made Bihar the mirror of Indian democracy itself.
In Bihar, alliances matter more than individual parties. No single party has crossed the 25% vote share threshold in recent years, a rarity in Indian politics. The real contest is between the National Democratic Alliance (NDA)—comprising the BJP, JDU, LJP (Chirag Paswan), HAM, and RLM—and the Mahagathbandhan (MGB), which brings together the RJD, Congress, Left, and VIP. As News18 notes, the winner is always the alliance that gets its caste math and coalition calculus just right.
This year’s seat-sharing arrangement marks a symbolic shift: for the first time, the BJP and JDU are contesting an equal number of seats (101 each). The LJP, buoyed by its clean sweep in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, has secured 29 seats. On the other side, the RJD remains the dominant force in the Mahagathbandhan, while the Congress has been allotted fewer seats following a disappointing 2020 performance. Tejashwi Yadav is the clear chief ministerial candidate for the MGB, while Mukesh Sahani’s VIP has been promised the Deputy CM slot.
As the campaign period closed on Sunday, top leaders from both alliances made their final appeals. Union Home Minister Amit Shah addressed a massive rally in Sasaram, where he set a strong nationalist tone and issued a stern warning about national security. “On this sacred land of Shaktipeeth, I am saying, if terrorists fire a bullet, hum goli ka jawab goley se denge,” Shah declared, promising a “decisive response” to any future terror attacks and announcing plans for a defence corridor and an ordnance factory in Bihar, as reported by Business Standard.
Bihar’s Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary, meanwhile, reaffirmed NDA unity and quashed any rumors of leadership change. “Nitish Kumar is the Chief Minister today and will remain so,” he stated, echoing the NDA’s official position. Nitish Kumar’s image as a steady, dependable leader has been a cornerstone of the NDA’s campaign, despite two decades in power and mounting anti-incumbency sentiments.
On the Mahagathbandhan side, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi turned up the heat, accusing the BJP-led government of “vote theft” and calling on Bihar’s youth to “protect their future.” Gandhi didn’t mince words: “Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, and the Chief Election Commissioner are stealing votes,” he alleged, urging Gen Z voters to stay vigilant. He also criticized the Centre for neglecting Bihar’s industrial potential, insisting, “I want that instead of Made in China, Made in Bihar should be written on mobile phones.”
Union Minister Rajnath Singh, campaigning for the NDA, framed the election as a choice between development and a return to “jungle raj,” a term loaded with memories of lawlessness during previous regimes. “You have to decide whether to make Bihar a developed Bihar or take it back to jungle raj. India will become Viksit only when Bihar becomes Viksit,” Singh told crowds in Gaya and Kaimur, reiterating the NDA’s promise of a defence corridor to spur local industry and employment.
The NDA is banking on a slew of welfare schemes to secure its base. Chief among these is the Rs 10,000 scheme for 1.3 crore women, which has already seen beneficiaries invest in livestock and sewing machines. The old-age pension has been hiked from Rs 400 to Rs 1,100 for 1.2 crore senior citizens, and households are enjoying 125 units of free electricity—a move widely credited to Nitish Kumar. The NDA’s campaign also leans heavily on the emotional appeal of Prime Minister Modi’s “jungle raj” narrative, reminding voters of the RJD era’s crime and extortion.
The Mahagathbandhan, on the other hand, is riding a wave of youth discontent and hunger for change. Tejashwi Yadav’s promise of a job in every family resonates strongly in a state where unemployment remains a persistent challenge. The MGB has also pledged Rs 30,000 in cash support for women—a counter to Nitish’s welfare scheme—and is capitalizing on anti-incumbency sentiments against the NDA’s long rule. The clear projection of Tejashwi as the chief ministerial face gives the alliance coherence and a sense of direction.
Yet, as history shows, Bihar’s elections are rarely straightforward. In 2015, the BJP won the largest vote share but lost to the RJD-JDU alliance. In 2020, the RJD led in votes but was edged out by the BJP-JDU combine. The lesson? In Bihar, it’s not the biggest party that wins, but the alliance that strikes the right balance of caste, community, and coalition.
Adding another twist to this year’s contest is the emergence of the Jan Suraaj party, which is giving both the NDA and MGB a run for their money. Political observers are watching closely to see whether this newcomer can disrupt the traditional power equations or merely play spoiler.
With the campaign now over and the border sealed, Bihar stands at a pivotal crossroads. The outcome of this election will not only determine the state’s leadership—whether Nitish Kumar’s “double-engine” government gets another term or Tejashwi Yadav’s Mahagathbandhan ushers in a new era—but also serve as a bellwether for national politics. As News18 aptly puts it, “Whichever side wins, Bihar will once again prove why it’s called India’s political mirror—complex, unpredictable, and deeply rooted in social arithmetic.”
The next few days promise high drama, close contests, and, as always, a few surprises. Bihar’s voters, ever alert and outspoken, are ready to make their voices heard—and the country is watching.
