In a move that’s turned heads across Europe and Washington alike, Belarus freed 52 political prisoners on September 11, 2025, just as the United States announced it would ease some sanctions on the country’s national airline, Belavia. The gesture—hailed by Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko as a welcome step—could mark a subtle yet significant shift in the icy relationship between Minsk and the West. But as with most things in geopolitics, the story is far from straightforward.
“The fact that the Americans have started to lift sanctions against us, I thank them for that, it will make our work easier,” Lukashenko said in a meeting with Belarus’ Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Valentin Rybakov, as reported by Caliber.Az. He admitted that sanctions “weigh heavily on the economy,” even if addressing them isn’t always front and center on the government’s agenda. For a country that’s spent years under the thumb of Western restrictions—largely for its harsh crackdown on dissent and its role in aiding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—any relief is a big deal.
Belarus, a nation of 9.5 million sandwiched between Russia and the European Union, has been a close ally of Moscow for decades. Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Belarus has faced repeated rounds of Western sanctions, both for letting Russian troops use its territory and for its own human rights abuses. Over the past year, Lukashenko has made a series of overtures to the West, hoping to chip away at the country’s international isolation. According to NBC News, he’s made it a habit to release prisoners in efforts to curry favor.
The latest mass release included not just opposition activists and journalists, but also 14 foreigners—six Lithuanians, two Latvians, two Poles, two Germans, one French national, and one from the UK—according to the Belarusian presidency’s press service. Among the freed was Siarhei Tsikhanouski, a prominent dissident and the husband of exiled opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. His release, along with 13 others, came in June 2025 after a visit from a senior envoy of then-U.S. President Donald Trump, NBC News reported.
The timing of the latest release, however, was anything but random. Shortly before the news broke, Belarusian state media posted a video of U.S. envoy John Coale announcing that Washington had lifted some sanctions on Belavia, the country’s national airline. The airline had been blacklisted by the U.S., the European Union, and others since 2021, after Belarusian authorities forced a commercial jet traveling from Greece to Lithuania to land in Minsk—ostensibly for a bomb threat, but in reality to arrest dissident journalist Raman Pratasevich, who was on board.
According to a U.S. official who spoke to the Associated Press on condition of anonymity, the relaxed sanctions will allow Belavia to service and purchase parts for its planes, including Boeing aircraft. The White House, for its part, did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the decision.
Not everyone is convinced that the move signals real change. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the opposition leader in exile, told the Associated Press, “We understand that this is part of the deal. But lifting sanctions without systemic changes in the country could open loopholes that both the Lukashenko regime and Russia will use to circumvent the sanctions.” Her warning reflects a broader anxiety among Belarusian activists and Western officials, who fear that easing pressure on Minsk could inadvertently help Moscow’s heavily sanctioned aviation industry as well.
The release also brought to light the continued struggles of Belarusian dissidents. Among those freed was veteran opposition activist Mikalai Statkevich, a charismatic figure who’s spent years in and out of prison for challenging Lukashenko’s rule. Statkevich, now 69, was recognized by Amnesty International as a prisoner of conscience. He was first jailed in 2010 for organizing mass protests and sentenced to six years, released in 2015 under U.S. pressure, and then arrested again before the 2020 elections. In 2021, he was handed another 14-year sentence. According to people who spoke to the Associated Press, Statkevich refused to cross into Lithuania after his release, instead lingering in the no-man’s land between the two countries and repeatedly attempting to return to Belarus—only to be blocked by border guards. Earlier, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda had said the prisoners had all crossed safely into his country.
Another high-profile release was Ihar Losik, a journalist for U.S.-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, who was sentenced to 15 years in prison in December 2021 on charges ranging from “organizing mass riots” to “inciting social hatred.” The full details of his case, as with many Belarusian political prisoners, remain murky.
Still, the scale of the release—52 prisoners at once—was enough to prompt public gratitude from regional leaders. “I am deeply grateful to the United States and personally to President @realDonaldTrump for their continued efforts to free political prisoners. 52 is a lot. A great many. Yet more than 1,000 political prisoners still remain in Belarusian prisons and we cannot stop until they see freedom!” Lithuanian President Nauseda wrote on X (formerly Twitter), according to NBC News. He described the prisoners as leaving “behind barbed wire, barred windows and constant fear.”
Despite the good news, human rights groups like Viasna estimate that nearly 1,200 political prisoners remain behind bars in Belarus. The country’s jails are still crowded with dissidents, journalists, and opposition figures—many held incommunicado or on unclear charges. For families and activists, the fight is far from over.
The latest developments also come at a tense moment for the region. Just a day before the U.S. announced its sanctions relief, Poland denounced an incursion of Russian drones into its airspace—some reportedly originating from Belarus. NATO jets scrambled and shot down several of the drones in what Western officials called an act of aggression. Meanwhile, Russian and Belarusian troops have been gathering for joint war games, scheduled to begin the day after the prisoner release. President Trump, whose country remains NATO’s major military power, offered a typically ambiguous response to the drone incident, posting on his Truth Social platform: “What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones? Here we go!”
For Lukashenko, the partial sanctions relief is a rare diplomatic win. But for the thousands still imprisoned and the many more who fear for their safety, the gesture may feel like little more than window dressing. As Western governments weigh the risks and rewards of engagement, the fate of Belarus’s political prisoners—and the country’s broader future—hangs in the balance.
One thing’s for sure: in Belarus, meaningful change remains elusive, and the world is watching closely to see what comes next.
