On October 4, 2025, the Czech Republic found itself at a political crossroads as voters delivered a decisive—yet complex—verdict in the nation’s parliamentary elections. Billionaire businessman Andrej Babiš and his populist ANO party emerged as clear winners, securing just under 35% of the vote, according to preliminary results reported by Reuters and BBC. Yet, without an outright majority in the 200-seat lower house, Babiš faces the daunting task of coalition-building in a fragmented political landscape. The outcome signals not only a potential shift in Czech domestic policy but also reverberates across Europe, raising questions about the country’s future stance on Ukraine, the European Union, and NATO.
Babiš’s victory was hardly a surprise. For weeks, opinion polls had consistently placed the former prime minister and his ANO movement ahead of the governing center-right coalition led by Petr Fiala. In the end, ANO captured around 81 seats, while Fiala’s Spolu (Together) coalition trailed with roughly 23% of the vote. The liberal-conservative STAN bloc and other smaller parties also made showings, but none came close to challenging ANO’s dominance. As AP and Politico noted, Babiš was greeted with raucous applause at party headquarters, celebrating what he called a “historic” result.
Yet, the numbers tell a story of both triumph and limitation. With 99% of districts counted, ANO’s 34.7% share translates to about 80 seats—well short of the 101 needed for a majority. Babiš wasted no time declaring his intention to form a one-party government, but reality quickly set in: “We will talk to the Motorists and the SPD,” he told supporters, referencing the two right-wing, eurosceptic parties most likely to join his camp. The Motorists for Themselves, backed by former President Václav Klaus, share ANO’s skepticism toward EU environmental policies and the bloc’s Green Deal, while the Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party, led by Tomio Okamura, is known for its anti-immigrant rhetoric and calls for referenda on EU and NATO membership.
The coalition arithmetic is tricky. While ANO and the Motorists see eye-to-eye on rejecting EU emissions targets and the planned ban on new petrol and diesel cars after 2035, the SPD’s more radical platform—particularly its push for referenda on leaving the EU and NATO—poses potential headaches. Babiš has categorically ruled out such referenda, telling reporters, “We want to save Europe ... and we are clearly pro-European and pro-NATO.” Still, he has not shied away from populist rhetoric, lambasting the outgoing government for allegedly giving “Czech mothers nothing, and Ukrainians everything” during the final days of the campaign (BBC).
Observers, both at home and abroad, are watching closely to see how Babiš navigates these alliances. The SPD, which polled 7.8%, fought the election in a formal alliance with several far-right and fringe parties. Additionally, the party has been accused of leveraging TikTok and other social media platforms to “systematically spread pro-Russian propaganda and support anti-system parties through manipulated engagement,” according to DW. This prompted the European Commission to convene an emergency meeting with TikTok operators just days before the election, resulting in the removal of several bots associated with the campaign.
The potential implications for Ukraine are profound. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, the Czech Republic under Fiala has been a stalwart supporter of Kyiv, providing arms—including heavy weapons—and spearheading an initiative to acquire artillery shells for Ukraine from non-EU countries. Babiš, however, has repeatedly questioned the wisdom of such support and signaled a desire to scale it back. As Reuters reported, he has promised to end the “Czech initiative” that has purchased millions of artillery rounds for Ukraine, arguing that future aid should be handled by NATO and the EU. ANO has even abstained from some European Parliament votes backing Kyiv and its bid for EU membership.
Babiš’s foreign policy instincts align him with other Central European populists, notably Viktor Orbán of Hungary and Robert Fico of Slovakia. Both leaders have refused military aid to Ukraine, continued importing Russian oil, and opposed EU sanctions on Moscow. In 2024, Babiš joined forces with Orbán to launch the “Patriots for Europe” alliance in the European Parliament—a bloc united by anti-migrant rhetoric, skepticism of EU climate policies, and a fierce defense of national sovereignty. This marks a significant shift from Babiš’s earlier affiliation with the more centrist Renew group.
For the European Union, Babiš’s return is a potential headache. Czechia, which once stood as a reliable partner in Brussels, may now join Hungary and Slovakia in challenging the bloc’s mainstream direction on everything from decarbonization to migration. “The election result risks turning Czechia into a challenge for the European Union,” Politico observed, noting that the country’s new political alignment could complicate consensus-building in Brussels.
Domestically, Babiš’s campaign promises struck a chord with many voters weary from years of economic turbulence and inflation. ANO pledged faster growth, higher wages and pensions, and lower taxes—proposals that will cost billions of euros and test the country’s traditionally frugal mindset. The party also promised tax discounts for students and young families. “We went into the election with the aim of ending the government of Petr Fiala and support even for a minority cabinet of ANO is important for us and it would meet the target we had for this election,” SPD Deputy Chairman Radim Fiala said on television (Reuters).
Babiš’s path to the premiership is not without obstacles. He faces ongoing conflict-of-interest concerns as the owner of a sprawling chemicals and food empire, as well as long-standing fraud charges related to EU subsidies—allegations he denies. President Petr Pavel, who will appoint the next prime minister, is expected to begin talks with party leaders imminently. The possibility remains that Babiš could attempt to govern alone, propped up by confidence-and-supply arrangements with the Motorists and SPD, though such a setup would be inherently unstable.
For now, the Czech Republic stands at a pivotal juncture. The election has delivered a populist resurgence, but also left the country’s future direction—on Ukraine, the EU, and its own democracy—hanging in the balance. As coalition talks unfold, all eyes will be on Prague to see which way the political winds will blow.
