Australians have made their anxieties clear in a striking new poll, revealing that they view Donald Trump’s tariffs as a greater threat than the growing military ambitions of China’s President Xi Jinping. The results, published by The Australian and other outlets on August 17, 2025, have set off a national conversation about economic security, political allegiances, and shifting global priorities.
The Newspoll, conducted between August 11 and August 14, 2025, surveyed 1,283 Australians on what they perceived as the more pressing danger: the unpredictable tariffs imposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump or the military build-up orchestrated by China in the Indo-Pacific region. The numbers were telling—42 percent of respondents said U.S. tariffs worried them more, while only 37 percent pointed to China’s military expansion as the bigger issue. Another 21 percent remained neutral, neither threat tipping the scales for them.
The survey’s findings come at a time when the international landscape is anything but steady. The U.S. has recently considered slapping even higher tariffs on a range of sectors, with pharmaceuticals facing potential levies as steep as 250 percent. Australia narrowly avoided a hike in baseline rates earlier this month, but the pain is far from over. As reported by The Australian, exports to the United States are still subject to a blanket 10 percent tariff, and some industries—steel, aluminium, and copper—are hit even harder, facing duties of 50 percent. For Australian producers, these figures aren’t just numbers on a spreadsheet; they represent real threats to livelihoods and competitiveness.
So why do Australians fear Trump’s tariffs more than China’s saber-rattling? The answer, it seems, is as much about politics as economics. The poll’s breakdown by party allegiance is revealing: 55 percent of Labor voters and a striking 60 percent of Greens voters said tariffs were their primary concern. In contrast, only 29 percent of Coalition and minor party voters shared that view. On the flip side, China’s military ambitions caused 50 percent of Coalition supporters and 49 percent of minor party supporters to worry, compared to just 26 percent of Labor and 22 percent of Greens voters.
This partisan split isn’t surprising, but it does highlight how Australians’ fears are filtered through their political lenses. For voters on the left, economic stability and the potential for job losses from tariff wars loom large. For those on the right and among minor parties, the specter of a militarily assertive China—expanding its reach in the Indo-Pacific—remains the dominant concern. The numbers tell the story: "Half of Coalition voters were more concerned about China's military threat while 55 per cent of Labor voters were more worried about Trump's tariffs," as noted by The Australian.
Meanwhile, the poll has delivered some good news for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. For the first time since September 2023, more Australians are satisfied with his performance than not. Albanese’s net approval rating now stands at plus-three, with 49 percent of voters satisfied and 46 percent dissatisfied. That’s a significant rebound from the slump in his popularity following the cost-of-living crisis and the divisive Voice referendum. As The Australian points out, "The Prime Minister's personal popularity has returned to levels not seen since the cost-of-living crisis and voice referendum led to a slump in his approval ratings."
Albanese’s resurgence comes at a politically sensitive time. The poll coincided with his announcement that Australia would recognize Palestinian statehood—a move that was sure to generate both praise and criticism across the political spectrum. Whether this policy shift contributed to his improved ratings is hard to say, but the timing is certainly notable.
On the opposition side, the numbers are less rosy. Sussan Ley, who took over as leader of the Coalition after Peter Dutton’s departure, has seen her net approval rating slip further into negative territory. Last month, Ley’s rating was minus-seven; it now sits at minus-nine. The Coalition’s primary vote, however, has inched up by one point to 30 percent, while Pauline Hanson’s One Nation also gained a point to reach 9 percent. Labor, for its part, remained steady at 36 percent and holds a commanding lead in the two-party-preferred vote: 56 percent to the Coalition’s 44 percent.
The poll’s results also reflect the broader political landscape since the last election. Labor’s victory on May 3, with a primary vote of 34.6 percent, marked a significant shift. The Coalition’s support, meanwhile, remains below the 31.8 percent primary vote it captured in May. The Greens have held steady at 12 percent, while the share for independents and minor parties has dropped from 15 to 13 percent.
For historians and political analysts, these numbers offer a snapshot of a nation grappling with complex global realities. Australia’s relationship with the United States has long been considered a cornerstone of its security—both economically and militarily. Yet, the specter of protectionism and trade wars has soured some of the public’s faith in this alliance. According to The Australian, "Australians are more concerned about Donald Trump's tariffs than Xi Jinping's military threat." That’s a remarkable reversal from past decades, when military threats—especially from rising powers in the region—tended to dominate the headlines and the public imagination.
At the same time, China’s military build-up in the Indo-Pacific is anything but theoretical. The region has witnessed an uptick in naval exercises, territorial disputes, and diplomatic skirmishes. Yet, for many Australians, the immediate impact of tariffs—felt at the supermarket, in factories, and on the farm—seems to outweigh the more distant, if still serious, risks posed by a militarily assertive Beijing. As one Labor supporter put it in the poll, "The tariffs are hitting us now. The military stuff is worrying, but it feels less immediate."
Of course, not everyone is convinced that economic concerns should trump security threats. Coalition and minor party supporters argue that Australia’s long-term independence and safety depend on a strong stance against China’s ambitions. They point to recent incidents in the South China Sea and increased military spending by Beijing as evidence that the threat is real and growing. For them, focusing too much on tariffs risks missing the forest for the trees.
Still, the poll’s findings underscore a broader truth: Australians are deeply divided over which global risks deserve the most attention. The economic pain of tariffs is tangible and immediate, while the dangers posed by China’s military build-up, though significant, are seen by many as more abstract or long-term.
As the world watches the next moves from Washington and Beijing, Australia finds itself at a crossroads—torn between old alliances, new threats, and the ever-present challenge of keeping its economy and its people secure. The numbers may change, but the underlying anxieties aren’t likely to fade anytime soon.
