In a move that could reshape the balance of power in the Pacific, Australia and Papua New Guinea (PNG) have signed the Pukpuk Treaty—a landmark defense pact that binds the two nations to come to each other’s aid in the event of a military attack. The agreement, finalized in Canberra on October 6, 2025, marks Australia’s first formal military alliance since the ANZUS Treaty of 1951 and represents a seismic shift in regional security dynamics, especially as great-power competition intensifies in the Pacific.
The Pukpuk Treaty, named after the Tok Pisin word for "crocodile," was inked by Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his PNG counterpart James Marape. According to a statement from Albanese’s office, the treaty "contains mutual defense obligations. Both countries recognize an armed attack on either would be a danger to the peace and security of both and declare they would act together to meet the common danger." This new alliance is not only a testament to the deepening strategic trust between the two countries, but also a direct response to rising Chinese influence in the region, as reported by Anadolu Agency.
The journey to the treaty’s signature was anything but smooth. Albanese was originally slated to sign the agreement in Port Moresby during PNG’s 50th independence anniversary in September 2025. However, a lack of quorum in the PNG government delayed the process, sparking speculation in the Australian media that China was attempting to derail the deal. Marape, however, was quick to dismiss such rumors, stating, "We’re not running a military dictatorship here, we’re a democracy." He emphasized that the delay was part of the normal governmental process, not the result of external interference. The Chinese Embassy, for its part, issued a statement urging PNG to "properly handle issues bearing on its sovereignty and long-term interests," but Marape maintained that while China is "an enduring friend," PNG’s security partners of choice remain unchanged, as reported by The Diplomat.
After a brief delay, PNG’s Cabinet approved the treaty on October 1, 2025. The agreement now awaits ratification by both nations’ parliaments and is expected to be debated in PNG’s Parliament in November. Marape described the pact as bringing the bilateral relationship to "its highest level in history." Yet, not everyone is convinced. Former PNG Defense Force commander Jerry Singirok remarked, "It’s common knowledge that Australia sees China as a potential threat, but China is not PNG’s enemy." These words highlight concerns about sovereignty and the true beneficiaries of the agreement.
The treaty’s provisions are sweeping. It allows up to 10,000 Papua New Guineans to serve in the Australian Defense Force, with eligible permanent residents able to apply from January 1, 2026. Australia has also committed to supporting the expansion of PNG’s defense force to approximately 7,000 regulars, complemented by a 3,000-strong reserve, and will provide training, infrastructure development, and modernization to boost interoperability between the two militaries. According to reporting from The Diplomat and PIJAR: International Journal of Academic Research, these measures are designed to strengthen PNG’s defense capabilities, particularly in maritime security and border control.
But the Pukpuk Treaty’s implications stretch far beyond the two signatory nations. The 824-kilometer border between PNG and Indonesia means Jakarta is watching closely. Indonesia has long opposed any internationalization of issues in its Papua provinces, and the visible presence of Australian-supported forces near its border could be seen as an externalization of what Indonesia considers a domestic matter. As noted in the Security Intelligence Terrorism Journal, this risks sparking nationalistic reactions in Jakarta and potentially straining diplomatic ties. The treaty is also likely to reduce Indonesia’s influence in Melanesia and may prompt defensive diplomatic and military adjustments among Southeast Asian nations, especially as the region navigates new U.S. Pacific initiatives and the AUKUS pact.
Domestically, PNG faces its own set of challenges. The country grapples with tribal conflicts, criminal operations, and chronic governance issues. There are fears that channeling resources into military expansion might come at the expense of vital social and judicial development. Critics argue that the treaty could tip the balance of power in favor of the military, potentially undermining already weak institutions. Furthermore, PNG’s traditional foreign policy stance of being "friends to all, enemies to none" is now under pressure. Treaty provisions may restrict Port Moresby’s diplomatic freedom, limiting its ability to engage with other countries—particularly China.
Despite these concerns, the treaty’s architects argue that it is as much about development as it is about defense. Joint projects in border provinces are planned to tackle root causes of instability, focusing on healthcare, education, and infrastructure. The idea, as articulated in PIJAR, is to build resilience through local capacity development rather than projecting military power. "The Canberra document presents itself as a tool for peace protection, which builds Pacific resilience through local capability development instead of using military power for its own ends," the journal notes.
Transparency and inclusivity are being touted as key to the treaty’s success. Proposals include regular trilateral exercises involving humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, as well as parliamentary-supervised joint commissions and the involvement of civil society and customary leaders in program development. Annual public reports and independent monitoring are expected to help build trust among regional stakeholders and reduce misunderstandings, especially with Indonesia.
Meanwhile, Australia is pursuing similar security arrangements elsewhere in the Pacific. Negotiations continue over the AU$500 million Nakamal Agreement with Vanuatu, intended to strengthen economic and security ties. Delays in finalizing this deal have also been attributed to sovereignty concerns and wording issues, particularly around infrastructure funding and visa-free travel. Vanuatu’s recent policing deal with China—worth about AU$700,000—has only fueled speculation about Beijing’s influence. However, Vanuatu leaders have dismissed such claims, insisting that the delay is about ensuring the agreement reflects their interests, not foreign pressure.
Australia’s broader strategy has seen it sign agreements with Tuvalu in 2023 and Nauru in 2024, giving Canberra the power to block security partnerships with Beijing. Yet, the region’s "friends to all" ethos and the legacy of colonialism mean that any move perceived as undermining sovereignty is met with skepticism. As the Pacific faces existential threats like climate change, some argue that these security pacts risk militarizing and politicizing the region at a time when cooperation on non-traditional threats is urgently needed.
Whether the Pukpuk Treaty will deliver lasting security and development for PNG—or simply entrench Australia’s strategic interests—remains to be seen. For now, the region waits to see if this new alliance will foster stability and trust, or sow further competition and suspicion in an already complex Pacific landscape.
