The peak of hurricane season in 2025 has come and gone with a surprising twist: the Atlantic basin, usually bustling with activity by early September, remained eerily quiet. On September 10—the historical high point for hurricane formation—there were no named storms on the map, a rare occurrence that left meteorologists and residents alike scratching their heads. According to AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva, “No tropical storms or hurricanes over the Atlantic basin on Sept. 10 has only happened three times over the last 30 years.” That’s a statistic that would make any weather-watcher pause.
But by the end of that same day, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) had flagged a new area of interest: a tropical wave expected to move off the coast of western Africa by Friday, September 12. This system, while still in its infancy, piqued the curiosity of forecasters. The NHC noted that environmental conditions could support some slow development of the system as it tracks west or west-northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The chance of formation over the next seven days stands at about 30 percent, according to advisories reported by USA TODAY and other outlets.
Meanwhile, the Pacific has not been entirely silent either. The NHC issued an early morning advisory on September 11 tracking showers and thunderstorms associated with a low-pressure area—labeled EP95—just offshore of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions there are favorable, and a tropical depression is likely to form as the system moves west-northwest, roughly parallel to but offshore of the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico. Forecasters are giving this Pacific system a 90 percent chance of formation through the next 48 hours, and residents along Mexico’s southern and southwestern coastline have been advised to monitor its progress closely.
Back in the Atlantic, the sense of calm is even more striking when compared to the numbers. By this point in the season, the Atlantic typically sees about eight named storms and three hurricanes. Yet, as of September 11, only six named storms have formed, and just one—Hurricane Erin—has reached hurricane strength. Erin, however, was no ordinary storm. It rapidly intensified from a Category 1 to a Category 5 hurricane in just over 24 hours, taking advantage of a brief window of low wind shear and reduced dry air, as reported by weather.com. That rapid intensification was a stark reminder that, while warm ocean waters are a key ingredient for hurricanes, they’re only one slice of a much larger meteorological pie.
The last named storm before this new Atlantic wave was Tropical Storm Fernand, which fizzled out at the end of August. Meteorologist Rob Shackelford, a climate scientist at weather.com, summed up the season so far: “Below average has been the name of the game for 2025 so far. We should have seen eight named storms by this time. We are only at six. For hurricanes, we should have seen three, but Erin stands alone at this time.” However, since Erin reached major hurricane status, the number of major hurricanes is actually on par with historical averages for this point in the season.
So, what’s been keeping this year’s hurricane activity at bay? Despite the Atlantic’s warm waters, several atmospheric factors have worked together to suppress storm development. Sinking air, strong wind shear, and dry air have all played a role in “stuffing out” most storms before they could gather steam. Only two years in recorded history—1879 and 1890—have seen no named storms in September, and experts doubt 2025 will join that exclusive club. “This storm could be the start of the Atlantic Basin beginning to wake up,” Shackelford predicted, suggesting that the lull may soon give way to more typical hurricane activity.
Colorado State University’s latest two-week forecast supports that view, predicting that activity will pick up in the coming days. Their meteorologists noted, “Global model ensembles are pretty aggressive with additional tropical cyclone development in days 8 through 14, with potential formations in the eastern Atlantic as well as in the western Caribbean/southern Gulf.” The primary threat formation area for major hurricanes in early- to mid-September remains the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, where the new wave is now being watched.
For those tracking the season’s progress, the next named storm in the Atlantic will be called Gabrielle. The NHC is currently monitoring three tropical waves in the basin, including one along 33W south of 18N and another along 55W south of 17N, both moving westward with scattered moderate convection. The colored, hatched areas on the NHC’s tropical outlook map help residents quickly gauge the likelihood of development: yellow for low, orange for medium, and red for high chance. As NHC Deputy Director Jamie Rhome explained, “If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare.”
Preparation remains the watchword, even during a lull. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) urges coastal residents not to become complacent. Their advice? “Get your disaster supplies while the shelves are still stocked, and get that insurance checkup early, as flood insurance requires a 30-day waiting period.” They also recommend developing an evacuation plan, assembling a hurricane kit with essentials like water, food, medications, flashlights, and cash, and making sure all insurance policies are up to date. A family communication plan and home strengthening measures—trimming trees, installing storm shutters, and sealing exterior openings—are also high on the list.
Florida, in particular, has taken steps to help residents prepare. As of August 1, hurricane supplies ranging from batteries to generators are permanently tax-free in the state. Officials encourage Floridians to stock up before storms threaten, as “it only takes one storm to make it an impactful year for your community,” the NHC Miami office posted on X (formerly Twitter).
For those curious about the science behind these storms, hurricanes begin as clusters of thunderstorms over warm tropical waters—above 80 degrees Fahrenheit. If conditions are right, these clusters can swirl into a tropical wave or depression, become a named storm at 39 mph sustained winds, and officially reach hurricane status at 74 mph. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, with the most activity typically occurring between mid-August and mid-October.
As the season heads into its second half, meteorologists warn that conditions could soon become more favorable for storm development. “We do anticipate the season picking up, however, given that large-scale conditions appear to become more tropical cyclone-favorable later in September,” Colorado State University noted. Atmospheric factors that have suppressed storms so far—like wind shear and dry air—are expected to dissipate, potentially opening the door for more significant activity.
Ultimately, while 2025’s hurricane season has started slow, history and science both suggest that the calm may be temporary. With new systems brewing in both the Atlantic and Pacific, and forecasts hinting at increased activity ahead, residents across hurricane-prone regions are being reminded: don’t let your guard down just yet.