It sounds like something out of a blockbuster movie: an asteroid, newly discovered and now under intense scrutiny, has a real—if slim—chance of slamming into the Moon in a few years’ time. Yet this scenario is not science fiction. According to a recent paper published by a team of researchers, including NASA scientists, on arXiv on September 15, 2025, asteroid 2024 YR4 could collide with the lunar surface in December 2032. The odds? About 4%. That may seem low, but in the world of planetary defense, it’s enough to set off alarms and spark urgent debate about what—if anything—humanity should do next.
The story of asteroid 2024 YR4 began less than a year ago when it was first spotted in December 2024 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile. Measuring up to 220 feet across, it’s no pebble. NASA classifies rocks of this size as “city killers,” capable of unleashing severe destruction if they were to strike Earth. Initially, there was a 3% chance the asteroid could hit our planet, but that risk has since been ruled out. Instead, attention has shifted skyward to our celestial neighbor—the Moon.
Why all the fuss about a lunar impact? As Times Now News and NBC News report, a direct hit from YR4 could send debris levels around the Moon soaring up to 1,000 times above normal within days. That fallout wouldn’t stay put; models show that a high-energy impact could loft material into trajectories that intersect Earth’s orbit, creating a prolonged cloud of micrometeoroids. The implications are sweeping. Satellites—those vital links for communication, weather, navigation, and Earth observation—could face higher collision rates and shortened lifespans. The International Space Station and other crewed missions? They’d be exposed to increased risk from fast-moving fragments. Even the infrastructure designed to mitigate existing space junk would be complicated by a sudden flood of new, hard-to-track objects.
And the effects don’t stop at the edge of space. Disruptions to GPS, telecommunications, and remote sensing could ripple down to Earth, threatening economic activity and public safety. In short, while Earth itself wouldn’t be struck, the orbital environment could become hazardous for months or even years. Launch windows might close, nonessential missions could be grounded, and agencies would be forced to reassess how—and when—they send people and hardware into orbit.
So, what can be done? Scientists are weighing a narrow set of options, each with its own technical, diplomatic, and even ethical trade-offs. The preferred strategy among planetary-defense experts is deflection—altering the asteroid’s velocity just enough so it misses the Moon. This is, in principle, the least destructive approach. NASA has already demonstrated something similar with the DART mission in 2022, where a spacecraft was deliberately crashed into a small asteroid to change its orbit. But as Times Now News and Valley Vanguard Online both highlight, there’s a catch: executing a deflection maneuver depends critically on knowing the asteroid’s mass. Current estimates for 2024 YR4’s mass range from 51 million to 711 million kilograms—a huge spread. If scientists miscalculate, a deflection could send the asteroid in an unintended direction, potentially increasing the risk to the Moon or even Earth itself.
Measuring mass with precision means sending a scout spacecraft or using close-approach observations, but both take time. Designing a new deflection craft from scratch could be possible by 2028, but that comes with schedule and budget risks. Repurposing hardware from missions like OSIRIS-APEX or Psyche might speed things up, yet would divert resources from other scientific priorities. International collaboration could ease the logistical burden, but adds layers of political complexity and the need for swift, coordinated decision-making.
But what if deflection isn’t feasible or the timeline becomes too tight? Scientists are considering kinetic impactors—smashing the asteroid with a high-speed spacecraft to change its trajectory. While this method can deliver a large change in momentum, it comes with its own risks. Fragmentation is a real concern: breaking the asteroid apart could create a cloud of smaller objects, each with unpredictable paths. Some fragments might miss Earth entirely, but others could be nudged onto intersecting orbits, multiplying the hazard.
Then there’s the nuclear option. If non-destructive methods fail, detonating a high-yield device near or on the asteroid could vaporize material or alter its momentum. Studies referenced in recent modeling suggest a near-miss detonation of around one megaton could significantly change the object’s trajectory or break it into smaller fragments. The pros? High probability of altering the trajectory when other methods fail and the ability to act on short notice. The cons are serious: nuclear fragmentation still produces multiple objects, vaporization may be incomplete, and detonations in space raise profound legal, strategic, and environmental questions. The United States tested nuclear devices in space in the early 1960s, so the physical effects are known. But today, international treaties governing the peaceful use of space would require extensive consultation, and any such decision would be fraught with geopolitical tension.
As Valley Vanguard Online emphasizes, the window for meaningful intervention depends on continued tracking and analysis. Astrometric updates between now and the late 2020s will refine the probability estimates and may either raise or lower the urgency to act. Mission planners are balancing how much the orbit can be refined with telescopes and radar before committing to a launch, the time needed to design, test, and deploy a mission, and the need for political consensus and legal clearance for kinetic or nuclear responses.
For now, NASA isn’t planning any deflection mission. Instead, the James Webb Space Telescope will take a closer look at YR4 in early 2026, with the hope that more accurate data will refine its trajectory and, ideally, reduce the impact probability to zero. But, as the experts caution, if the risk remains, the world may have to move fast—possibly by 2028—to design and launch a mission capable of averting a new kind of lunar disaster.
It’s a stark reminder that, even in an age of advanced technology, humanity remains at the mercy of the cosmos. The next few years will be crucial for astronomers, engineers, and policymakers as they chart a course through uncertainty, balancing scientific ingenuity with the realities of international cooperation and the unpredictable nature of space itself.
