In a week marked by pivotal economic developments across the Asia-Pacific and the United States, the global trade landscape is showing signs of cautious optimism, strategic investments, and persistent challenges. From Vietnam’s manufacturing sector grappling with subdued demand to Australia’s resurgent trade surplus and a landmark U.S. energy export approval, the region’s economic pulse is beating with a mix of resilience and uncertainty.
Vietnam’s manufacturing sector, a bellwether for Southeast Asia’s export-driven economies, has demonstrated a remarkable streak of production growth. According to S&P Global, August 2025 marked the fourth consecutive month of rising output, a feat that would typically be cause for celebration. Yet, the mood is tempered by a noticeable slowdown compared to July. The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for August stood at 50.4—down from 52.4 in July—signaling only a marginal improvement in business conditions. The PMI’s position just above the 50.0 threshold underscores a sector still expanding, but with far less vigor than earlier in the summer.
Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, summed up the mixed sentiment: “While it was positive to see output expand again during August, a renewed fall in new orders calls into question how long firms will be able to keep increasing production. The drop in new sales was led by exports, which decreased solidly again as issues around tariffs continued to impact the sector.”
The data reveals a sector at a crossroads. New export orders fell for the tenth consecutive month in August, largely due to ongoing U.S. tariffs and muted global demand. This persistent decline in overseas sales has forced Vietnamese manufacturers to scale back their workforce for the eleventh straight month, a trend that’s left spare capacity and reduced backlogs of work. In fact, backlogs fell to their lowest level since April, and companies have been reluctant to hold onto finished goods, preferring to dispatch them quickly amid falling new orders.
Ironically, even as firms trimmed staff and inventories, purchasing activity ticked up for the second month in a row. Many companies are betting that demand will rebound, stocking up on materials in anticipation. Yet, securing those inputs has become increasingly difficult. Raw material scarcity, compounded by tariffs and higher transportation costs, has driven input prices to their fastest rate of inflation in 2025 so far. Output prices have also risen for the third consecutive month, as manufacturers pass some of these costs onto customers.
Despite these headwinds, business confidence in Vietnam hit a six-month high in August, though it remains below historical averages. Many respondents to S&P Global’s survey expect new orders to improve over the coming year, buoyed by hopes that tariff disputes will stabilize. Nevertheless, concerns about the broader global economy continue to cast a shadow over this optimism.
The Vietnamese government, keenly aware of these dynamics, has taken proactive steps. In early August, it directed the State Bank of Vietnam to adjust credit growth targets to align with an ambitious GDP expansion goal of 8.3-8.5% for 2025. This target surpasses the National Assembly’s earlier benchmark of “at least 8%.” The urgency is understandable—Vietnam’s GDP growth in the first half of 2025 was a robust 7.52%, with a record-breaking 7.96% in the second quarter. However, international observers are more cautious. Standard Chartered recently revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam down to 6.1% from 6.7%, while the Asian Development Bank projects 6.3% growth in 2025 and 6% in 2026.
Australia, meanwhile, received a welcome boost in July as its trade surplus soared to A$7.31 billion (US$4.78 billion), the highest since February 2024, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This surge was powered by a 3.3% month-on-month increase in exports, notably in metal ores, coal, mineral fuels, and metals—Australia’s bread-and-butter commodities. Demand from key Asian and European markets, including China, Japan, and Europe, showed signs of recovery, giving Australian exporters a much-needed lift. Imports, on the other hand, dipped by 1.3% in July, further widening the surplus.
This rebound in exports arrives at a crucial juncture for Australia, following a period where sluggish export growth had weighed on the country’s economic performance in the second quarter. The July results suggest a possible turning point, with commodities once again underpinning Australia’s economic resilience. As global supply chains adjust to shifting demand and geopolitical uncertainties, Australia’s export-driven sectors appear poised to benefit—at least for now.
Across the Pacific, the United States marked a significant milestone in its energy export ambitions. On September 3, 2025, Commonwealth LNG received its final non-free trade agreement (non-FTA) export authorization from the U.S. Department of Energy for its 9.5 million tonnes per year LNG facility in Cameron Parish, Louisiana. This approval, following a string of regulatory green lights including the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s final order, clears the way for Commonwealth LNG to move toward a final investment decision later this year, with first LNG production targeted for 2029.
The scale of the project is striking. Commonwealth LNG’s Phase 1 development represents an investment of over US$11 billion and is expected to generate about US$3.5 billion in annual export revenue once operational. At its construction peak, the facility will employ around 2,000 workers, settling at approximately 275 high-paying jobs when operations commence in late 2029. The company has already secured long-term binding offtake agreements totaling 4 million tonnes per year with global giants Glencore, JERA, and PETRONAS, and recently contracted Technip Energies to provide engineering, procurement, and construction services for the state-of-the-art facility.
Ben Dell, Managing Partner of Kimmeridge and Chairman of Caturus, highlighted the significance: “Receiving our final non-FTA is a pivotal moment for Commonwealth. It is also a critical endorsement of our integrated natural gas platform, featuring a unique wellhead-to-water strategy that will deliver responsibly sourced, low-emission fuel to domestic and international markets, all the while advancing US energy leadership and economic growth.”
As these developments unfold, the interconnectedness of global trade and energy markets is unmistakable. Vietnam’s manufacturing sector, Australia’s commodity exports, and America’s LNG ambitions all reflect the delicate balance of supply, demand, and policy that underpins the world economy. Whether these positive signals will translate into sustained growth remains to be seen, but for now, the region’s economic actors are pressing ahead—eyes wide open to both opportunity and risk.