On October 20, 2025, the New York Stock Exchange buzzed with a sense of optimism as major U.S. stock indices closed sharply higher, fueled by a surge in Apple’s share price and renewed hopes for easing trade tensions between the United States and China. Yet, even as Wall Street celebrated, oil markets continued to languish, weighed down by persistent concerns over global oversupply and shifting geopolitical winds.
The day’s trading session saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average leap by 515.97 points, or 1.12%, to finish at 46,706.58, according to reporting from Prime Economy. The S&P 500 index also climbed, adding 71.12 points (1.07%) to close at 6,735.13, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq surged 310.56 points (1.37%) to 22,990.54. The rally was led by Apple, whose stock soared 4% to $262.24, marking its highest closing price in ten months and helping the company reclaim the number two spot in U.S. market capitalization, just behind Nvidia.
Apple’s rise was attributed to robust sales of the iPhone 17 series, a trend that prompted investment bank Loop Capital to upgrade its rating on the stock from “hold” to “buy.” The firm projected continued growth in iPhone shipments through 2027, underscoring Apple’s resilience even as debates about an artificial intelligence bubble swirl through the tech sector. "Apple’s growth, grounded in real demand, stands out against the backdrop of AI speculation," analysts noted in Prime Economy.
Other tech giants joined the party: Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, Microsoft, and Amazon all posted gains, while Nvidia, despite a slight dip of 0.32%, held onto its top spot in market cap. Microsoft also made headlines by announcing a 2-for-1 stock split, a move that often signals management’s confidence in future performance and aims to make shares more accessible to a broader range of investors.
Over in Europe, the mood was equally buoyant. The Stoxx 50, a broad measure of European blue chips, rose 1.31%, while Germany’s DAX gained 1.8%. The FTSE 100 in London and France’s CAC 40 also posted modest advances, reflecting a global appetite for risk amid hopes of stabilizing economic conditions.
But while stocks soared, the oil market painted a more complicated picture. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures closed at $57.54 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a modest increase of $0.08 (0.14%) from the previous session, as reported by Hankyung. Brent crude, the international benchmark, settled at $61.29 per barrel, up $0.23 (0.38%). Despite these slight upticks, WTI remained below the psychologically important $60 threshold for the seventh consecutive trading day, hovering at its lowest levels since early May.
The persistent weakness in oil prices reflects a cocktail of factors. Chief among them is the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) recent forecast of a 2% reduction in global oil supply in the coming year, alongside a longer-term plan to slash supply by 11 million barrels in 2026. These measures, intended to curb oversupply, have not yet been enough to buoy prices amid swelling inventories and record U.S. output. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. daily oil production hit an all-time high of 13.636 million barrels, while total reserves ballooned to 4.5238 billion barrels—far exceeding analyst expectations.
"We are seeing a market grappling with unprecedented levels of risk being resolved," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, in an interview with Hankyung. He pointed to recent diplomatic breakthroughs in the Middle East and the possibility of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine as factors reducing geopolitical risk premiums. Yet, the situation remains fluid. Former President Donald Trump’s pledge to provide Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles—capable of reaching deep into Russian territory—has rattled nerves in Moscow, with President Vladimir Putin warning that such a move could escalate the conflict.
Meanwhile, the oil market has had to contend with supply-side shocks closer to home. A fire at BP’s Whiting refinery in Indiana, the largest in the U.S. Midwest, temporarily disrupted regional output. "The BP refinery fire is expected to push wholesale gasoline prices in the Great Lakes region up by about 20 cents per gallon, and retail prices could soon follow," said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, according to Hankyung. However, the impact is expected to be localized, with national supply levels remaining robust.
Despite these supply hiccups, the broader trend in oil remains bearish. John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, told Prime Economy, "Concerns about oversupply are dominating the market, especially as traders look ahead to next year. This is one of the weakest markets we’ve seen in quite a while." The IEA’s projections of continued supply excess have kept prices under pressure, even as occasional geopolitical flare-ups—such as renewed clashes between Israel and Hamas in Gaza—momentarily slow the decline.
Macroeconomic forces are also at play. U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year note dropping three basis points to 3.98%, signaling investor confidence that inflation and interest rates may have peaked for now. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies, edged up 0.19%, reflecting steady demand for U.S. assets.
Back in Washington, the Trump administration signaled support for the beleaguered oil industry and floated the possibility of lowering tariffs on Chinese imports if Beijing offers concessions. "If China does something for the U.S., we can lower tariffs," Trump said, adding that existing tariffs could spike to as much as 155% if negotiations fail. Kevin Hassett, chairman of the White House National Economic Council, expressed optimism that Treasury Secretary Scott Besant would successfully conclude talks with Chinese counterparts this week, as reported by Prime Economy.
In the midst of these market gyrations, some sectors lagged. Consumer staples and utilities underperformed, reflecting a rotation out of defensive plays and into riskier assets. Oracle, for its part, continued to slide, losing another 4.87% amid skepticism about its long-term financial strategy, while AI infrastructure stocks like Seagate and Constellation Energy also took a hit.
For now, investors seem willing to look past the uncertainties in energy markets and focus on the bright spots in tech and trade. Yet, with oil prices stuck in a rut and geopolitical risks simmering just below the surface, the road ahead is anything but predictable. As the year draws to a close, all eyes will remain on the interplay between supply, demand, and diplomacy—each with the power to tip the balance in global markets.
It’s a market where optimism and caution walk hand in hand, and where every headline has the potential to move billions. For now, the bulls have the upper hand—but the bears are far from gone.
