The hum of sewing machines at Nairobi’s Shona EPZ garment factory has always signaled hope. But on Tuesday, September 30, 2025, that sound was tinged with anxiety as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA)—the linchpin of US-Africa trade for a quarter-century—expired, leaving workers, factory owners, and entire industries facing a clouded future.
AGOA, enacted in 2000, opened the doors for thousands of products from more than 30 African nations to enter the US market duty-free. Its mission was bold: replace aid with trade, spark industrial growth, and lift millions out of poverty. According to the BBC, for countries like Kenya and Lesotho, AGOA has been nothing short of transformative. Kenya’s textile and apparel sector, for example, has flourished, with exports to the US jumping from $110 million in 2000 to about $570 million by 2020. In 2024 alone, Kenya shipped $470 million worth of clothing to the US, supporting more than 66,000 direct jobs—three-quarters held by women, as reported by the Kenya Private Sector Alliance.
But with AGOA’s expiration and no official extension announced—despite the White House expressing support for a one-year reprieve—uncertainty has gripped the continent. At Shona EPZ, where 29-year-old Joan Wambui stitches sportswear for the American market, the stakes are personal. “If AGOA expires, where shall we go?” she wonders aloud, her hands deftly guiding fabric through the machine. For her, the regular paycheck is more than income; it’s dignity, the ability to pay school fees, put food on the table, and dream of a better future. “It’s going to hit me hard. Starting to look for a new job. In Kenya it’s hard to find a job, very hard,” she tells the BBC.
Wambui’s story is echoed by thousands across Africa. The International Trade Union Confederation Africa (ITUC-Africa) estimates that over 300,000 direct and more than 1 million indirect jobs could be at risk if AGOA isn’t renewed. “AGOA is the breadbasket of many people in very critical sectors,” says Hod Anyigba, chief economist at ITUC-Africa, in an interview with the Thomson Reuters Foundation. “But it is not the only way to prosperity. It was one of the ways… but there could be other, better ways of trading.”
The impact stretches beyond Kenya’s bustling garment factories. South Africa’s car plants, Lesotho’s textile mills, and Kenya’s horticultural producers—flowers, nuts, coffee—have all benefited from AGOA’s preferential treatment. For Lesotho, a small, landlocked country with a youth unemployment rate of about 38%, the stakes are dire. “Many women feel they have no choice. Ending AGOA will give them even fewer options,” warns Solong Senohe, general secretary of the United Textile Employees Union, which represents more than 5,000 garment workers in Lesotho.
The uncertainty isn’t just about tariffs and trade volumes. It’s about livelihoods and social stability. “If the extension isn’t granted, we may have to send people home and possibly shut down,” says Isaac Maluki, director at Shona EPZ, which employs 700 workers and has invested $10 million over the past seven years. “If we can’t get enough work to sustain the people here, we will have no choice.” Already, production at the factory has plunged from nearly half a million garments per month to about a third, as buyers hesitate to place long-term orders.
Compounding the challenge, the Trump administration imposed a 10% tariff on Kenyan goods in April 2025—a move that hit garment sales hard and further eroded the sector’s competitive edge. “If AGOA goes away we have zero chance to compete with the Asian countries,” says Pankaj Bedi, owner of United Aryan, a Nairobi-based manufacturer of Levi’s and Wrangler jeans, in remarks to the Business Daily. “AGOA is not only a trade agreement, but a driver of jobs, stability and growth, supporting workers, cotton farmers and logistics operators. Without it, jobs will vanish and the shock will ripple far beyond export zones.”
Across the continent, leaders and negotiators have scrambled to secure a lifeline. At the United Nations General Assembly in late September, African heads of state lobbied Washington for an extension. Kenyan President William Ruto urged the US to grant at least a five-year renewal, while also negotiating a bilateral trade pact he hopes to sign by year’s end. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa warned of “serious consequences” if AGOA lapses. Meanwhile, Lesotho’s trade minister revealed that the US intends to extend AGOA by one year, though no official confirmation has come from the White House.
Trade policy experts, however, see a silver lining in the crisis. “African countries really need to figure out what they want from the US and what they can offer, because you need to be offering something in exchange for market access,” says Teniola Tayo, a trade policy specialist, to the BBC. The uncertainty, she argues, could push African nations to diversify their trading partners and reduce overreliance on the US market.
One avenue is the African Continental Free Trade Area, launched in 2021, which aims to unify 1.4 billion people into a single market. While implementation has been slow—“It’s in creche, not even at university,” quips Matthew Parks of the Congress of South African Trade Unions—the potential is enormous. “When Africans trade amongst themselves, they tend to produce higher-value goods, more manufactured goods versus simply exporting raw materials,” says Tayo.
Meanwhile, exporters are hedging their bets. South Africa’s agriculture sector, for instance, has been aggressively seeking new markets in the Philippines, Thailand, and China. Anyigba of ITUC-Africa believes this is the moment for Africa to leverage its vast reserves of critical minerals, vital for the global transition to clean energy. “We must not become net exporters of raw materials, but also manufacturers, processing goods, so we can retain value on the continent,” he says.
For now, though, the fate of AGOA—and the futures of workers like Joan Wambui—hangs in the balance. As governments and negotiators wrangle over extensions and new deals, the daily urgency of putting food on the table remains. “We have ideas and the drive to make a difference. We just need support to show our potential,” Wambui says, echoing the hopes of millions across Africa’s industrial heartlands.
AGOA’s uncertain future has cast a long shadow, but it’s also sparked a reckoning: Africa’s next chapter in global trade may be written not just in Washington, but in boardrooms, factory floors, and government halls across the continent.
