Diplomatic efforts to resolve escalating tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan have reached another impasse, as peace talks in Istanbul collapsed without an agreement, leaving the region on edge and the future of a fragile ceasefire uncertain. Over the past month, clashes along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border have resulted in dozens of deaths and heightened fears of renewed conflict, even as both sides claim to want peace.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on November 9, 2025, that Turkey’s foreign and defense ministers, along with its intelligence chief, would travel to Pakistan to discuss a possible breakthrough in the stalled negotiations. According to Erdogan, the tripartite visit aimed to "seal a permanent ceasefire and peace between the nations as soon as possible," following his meeting with Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif in Baku. The Turkish leader’s overture underscored Ankara’s growing role as a mediator in South Asian security affairs, but the prospects for progress remain dim after recent developments.
The latest round of peace talks, held in Istanbul and mediated by Turkey and Qatar, ended in stalemate on November 7, 2025. According to DW, representatives from Afghanistan and Pakistan had met to secure a truce first agreed upon on October 19, after deadly border clashes left casualties on both sides. However, the negotiations quickly unraveled, with both delegations trading blame for the failure.
Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid laid the responsibility for the impasse squarely at Islamabad’s feet. "During the discussions, the Pakistani side attempted to shift all responsibility for its security to the Afghan government, while showing no willingness to take responsibility for either Afghanistan's security or its own," Mujahid said, as reported by DW. He further criticized what he described as Pakistan’s "unreasonable demands," which he claimed derailed the talks. Speaking from Kandahar, Mujahid told reporters, "We do not want insecurity in the region, and entering into war is not our first choice. But if war breaks out, we have the right to defend ourselves." He reiterated that Afghanistan would not allow its territory to be used against other countries and would not tolerate actions threatening its sovereignty or security.
Despite the collapse of the talks, Mujahid insisted that the ceasefire agreed upon in October would continue to hold for now. He thanked Turkey and Qatar for their mediation efforts, but the mood in both capitals was somber. Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif confirmed to Geo News that "the talks are over" and there are "no plans for any future meetings." He added, "The ceasefire will remain as long as it is not violated from the Afghan side." The Information Minister, Attaullah Tarar, echoed this sentiment, suggesting that Afghanistan had "so far failed" to fulfill pledges to clamp down on terrorism, and warning, "Pakistan shall continue to exercise all options necessary to safeguard the security of its people and its sovereignty."
The backdrop to these failed negotiations is a surge in violence along the border since October. According to DW and Eurasia Review, fierce fighting erupted between Pakistani military forces and Afghan Taliban units, marking the deadliest conflict between the neighbors since the Taliban’s return to power in Kabul in 2021. The violence was sparked by a series of incidents, including October 9 explosions in Kabul that the Taliban blamed on Pakistani drone strikes. In retaliation, Afghan forces shelled Pakistani military posts, resulting in dozens of deaths on both sides. Pakistan acknowledged losing 23 troops, while Afghan officials reported at least 58 soldiers killed.
Central to the dispute is the presence of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a militant group responsible for a surge in attacks inside Pakistan since 2021. Islamabad alleges that the TTP operates from Afghan soil with impunity, a charge the Taliban government denies. "The TTP predated the Taliban’s 2021 return to power and Afghanistan cannot be held responsible for its actions," Mujahid argued. Yet, a 2025 United Nations report found that the TTP "receive substantial logistical and operational support from the de facto authorities," referring to the Taliban government in Kabul. Pakistan has repeatedly demanded that Kabul take action against the TTP and has presented evidence, corroborated by international bodies such as the UN and the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), of terrorist groups launching attacks from Afghan territory.
Pakistan’s response to these security threats has been multifaceted. The government has taken significant steps to enhance border security, including fencing efforts, increased surveillance, and diplomatic engagement. According to Eurasia Review, there have been eight Joint Coordination Committee sessions, over 225 border flag meetings, 836 protest notes, and 13 demarches delivered to Afghan authorities to address cross-border issues. Despite these efforts, Pakistan maintains that the Taliban’s lack of cooperation in curbing the TTP’s activities and continued support for factions like the Haqqani network undermine regional stability.
The diplomatic standoff has also had severe humanitarian consequences. Pakistan has intensified a crackdown on Afghan migrants in the wake of the border clashes, with authorities reporting that more than one million Afghan nationals have been deported since 2023. This move comes despite Pakistan’s long history of hosting Afghan refugees—over four million in the past four decades, according to Eurasia Review. While Islamabad points to its record of providing education and healthcare to Afghan refugees, critics note that the Taliban’s own policies since 2021 have denied Afghan women and girls basic rights, including access to education and employment.
Neither side appears willing to compromise, and the rhetoric has grown increasingly sharp. While the Taliban government insists it will not allow Afghan soil to be used for attacks on neighbors, it also refuses to accept written agreements on security matters, according to Pakistani officials. The Taliban’s exclusionary political practices and failure to engage in genuine peace talks have raised doubts about its commitment to regional stability, while Pakistan’s ongoing deportation campaign has strained already fragile people-to-people ties.
The collapse of the Istanbul talks leaves the region in a precarious position. As Turkey and Qatar continue to offer their mediation services, and as President Erdogan’s delegation prepares for yet another round of shuttle diplomacy, the question remains: can outside actors broker a lasting peace between two neighbors locked in a cycle of mistrust and violence? For now, the guns are silent, but the underlying tensions remain unresolved, and the risk of renewed conflict looms large over South Asia.
