With the 2025 gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia just around the corner, the issue on nearly every voter's mind is one that hits right at home: affordability. In a political climate still reeling from the aftershocks of Donald Trump’s return to the White House nearly a year ago, Americans’ anxieties over inflation, high bills, and the rising cost of living are front and center, shaping the tone and trajectory of two of the nation’s most closely watched state races.
"The theme of affordability is pretty widespread across these elections," Dr. Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University, told ABC News. Indeed, the message resonates from campaign stops in suburban Westfield, New Jersey, to rallies in bustling Norfolk, Virginia. The stakes? Not only the governorships themselves, but also the direction of both major parties as they eye the 2026 midterms.
In New Jersey, Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli are locked in a fierce contest, each vying to convince voters that they can ease the financial burdens weighing on families. Sherrill’s platform centers on expanding affordable housing through tax incentives for developers and proposing a state of emergency to freeze utility rate hikes. It’s a bold move in a state where, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, residential electricity rates are among the highest in the nation—and only climbed higher, spiking between 17% and 20% over the summer, as reported by the Regional Plan Association.
Meanwhile, Ciattarelli, a businessman and former state representative, has zeroed in on taxes. He’s pledged to cut both personal and corporate tax rates and expand property tax freezes for seniors—a pitch aimed squarely at the 25% of New Jersey voters who, according to a late October Quinnipiac Poll, cite taxes as their top issue at the ballot box. On the campaign trail, Ciattarelli has focused on his deep family roots in the state and argued that it’s time for a "Jersey guy" to take the helm, often chiding Sherrill for what he sees as her overemphasis on national politics. "Her disdain for the president. And she can fly a helicopter. Is any of that going to fix New Jersey?" he quipped in Westfield, referencing Sherrill’s experience as a Navy helicopter pilot.
But the shadow of outgoing Democratic Governor Phil Murphy looms large. Some voters, like attorney Kelsey Anthony, are quick to place blame for New Jersey’s economic woes on the current administration. "The last eight years have been really telling, and the current administration has really done a number on a lot of New Jersey families," Anthony told ABC News. It’s a tough environment for Sherrill, especially in a state that hasn’t kept the same party in the governor’s mansion for three consecutive terms since 1961.
Virginia’s race, meanwhile, is colored by the unique pressures facing a state with tens of thousands of federal workers—many of whom have felt the sting of the recent government shutdown. Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger, a former member of Congress, has made the economy her closing argument, taking aim at the Trump administration’s trade policies and the shutdown’s impact on Virginians. At a recent rally, she declared, "Virginia voters can and will send a message amid the recklessness and the heartlessness coming out of Washington."
Her opponent, Republican Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, has largely steered clear of direct references to Trump, focusing instead on tax cuts, education policy, and opposition to unions and business regulations. In Purcellville, she promised, "We are not going back. There’s only darkness back there. Abigail Spanberger represents the darkness." Earle-Sears has also seized on recent controversies, attacking Spanberger over Democrats' positions on the government shutdown and highlighting violent text messages sent by the Democratic attorney general candidate.
As reported by ABC News, the economic anxieties are real and raw. Juliana, a single mother of three and a clinical technician in a Virginia hospital, shared her struggles: "Virginia’s really expensive. In order for you to really make it, you need another person in your life that will work with you." According to a recent ABC News/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, about six in ten Americans blame Trump for the current rate of inflation, and a similar majority disapprove of his handling of tariffs, the economy, and the federal government. Yet, Republicans are betting that Trump’s policies—particularly on trade and the tax code—will remain a selling point as the midterms approach.
Former President Barack Obama’s entrance into the fray underscored just how high the stakes are. Campaigning for Spanberger and Sherrill, Obama painted the 2025 elections as a referendum on Trump’s leadership and a test of the nation’s democratic resilience. "The stakes are now clear," Obama said in Virginia. "We don't need to speculate about the dangers to our democracy. We don't need to ask ourselves how much more coarse and mean our culture can become. Elections matter, and they matter to you." He didn’t shy away from criticizing Trump’s "lawlessness and recklessness" and questioned whether economic conditions had improved for voters since Trump’s return to office. "Has any of that gotten better for you?" he asked in New Jersey.
Notably, Trump himself has taken a more reserved approach, spending the weekend at his Florida properties rather than campaigning in person for Ciattarelli or Earle-Sears. While he endorsed both and even conducted a phone rally for Ciattarelli, the Republican candidates have largely kept their focus on local issues, perhaps mindful of Trump’s polarizing effect on the broader electorate. Some supporters still donned red "Make America Great Again" hats at campaign stops, but the nominees stuck to promises of lower energy costs, tax relief, and conservative governance.
Social issues have also surfaced, though perhaps with less intensity than in previous cycles. Spanberger and Sherrill have both emphasized their support for abortion rights, with Spanberger highlighting Virginia’s status as the last Southern state not to impose new restrictions. Earle-Sears, while not mentioning her opposition to abortion rights during her campaign stops, has repeatedly labeled Spanberger an extremist on transgender rights—an echo of attacks Trump used effectively in 2024.
Even some Democrats concede that certain elements of the Republican tax agenda, like exempting tips and overtime for service workers from taxation, are popular with voters. Yet, as Democratic strategist Caitlin Legacki told ABC News, "Clearly there is support for [lowering taxes], but it is not a policy position that affects the short-term pain people are feeling." Meanwhile, Spanberger has blasted the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency and the ongoing federal shutdown, which has a disproportionate impact in Virginia, home to more than 300,000 federal employees according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
As voters in New Jersey and Virginia head to the polls, the outcome will offer a telling snapshot of America’s mood under a second Trump presidency. Will concerns about affordability and economic hardship drive a new political realignment, or will local issues and candidate personalities tip the scales? One thing is certain: the results will reverberate far beyond state lines, shaping the political landscape for years to come.
