For the first time in its history, Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has surged to become the country’s most popular political force, according to a new poll published on September 21, 2025. The survey, conducted by the INSA institute and commissioned by the newspaper Bild, marks a watershed moment in German politics, with the AfD capturing 26% of voter support—a record high for the party in any INSA poll to date. The poll, which surveyed 1,200 eligible voters between September 15 and 19, highlights a dramatic shift in the country’s political landscape, one that could have far-reaching consequences for the future direction of Germany.
The results show the AfD narrowly overtaking the conservative Christian Democratic/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) bloc, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, which now stands at 25%. This one-point lead may seem slim, but it is deeply symbolic. As Bild notes, “This is the first time that neither the CDU/CSU nor the SPD, but the AfD, has emerged as Germany’s leading political force.” Not since March 2022, when the Social Democratic Party (SPD) briefly led the polls, has a party outside the traditional center-right bloc topped national popularity rankings.
The poll’s findings reveal a broader realignment. Support for the SPD, the center-left party that once dominated German politics, has climbed by a single percentage point to 15%. The Greens, who have been a significant force in the Bundestag and a voice for environmental policy, lost one percentage point, now standing at 11%. The Left, another long-standing fixture in German politics, also holds 11% support.
Meanwhile, newer or smaller parties are struggling to gain traction. The recently established populist Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance, despite much media attention, failed to clear the 5% threshold required to enter the Bundestag, securing just 4% of the vote. The pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP), once a kingmaker in German coalitions, fared even worse at 3%.
These numbers paint a picture of a fragmented political landscape in which no single party commands a clear mandate. If parliamentary elections were held today, the current governing coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD would only secure 40% of the vote—far short of the majority needed to form a government. This raises the specter of political instability and potentially protracted coalition negotiations, a scenario Germany has largely avoided since the postwar era.
So why has the AfD, long considered a fringe party, managed to break through to the top? Political analysts point to several factors. Over the past year, the party has capitalized on widespread voter dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of economic challenges, migration, and energy policy. The AfD’s messaging, which critics describe as ultra-right and populist, has resonated with a segment of the electorate feeling left behind by globalization and rapid social change.
According to Bild, the AfD’s rise “marks the highest support the party has ever received in an INSA public opinion poll.” This is no small feat in a country where memories of the far right’s past weigh heavily on the national consciousness. The party’s leaders have been quick to seize on the momentum. While the poll did not include direct quotes from AfD officials, the numbers speak loudly enough: the party’s support is not just a protest vote, but a sign of changing political realities.
The CDU/CSU, for its part, has struggled to differentiate itself from both the AfD’s hardline positions and the more centrist policies of the SPD. Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who took the reins of the CDU in hopes of revitalizing the party, now faces the daunting challenge of regaining voter trust while fending off attacks from both left and right. The CDU/CSU’s 25% support remains unchanged from the previous week, suggesting a period of stagnation for the bloc.
Meanwhile, the SPD’s modest uptick in support—rising to 15%—offers little comfort. The party, which led the government as recently as three years ago, has struggled to articulate a compelling vision in the face of mounting economic and social pressures. The Greens’ dip to 11% may reflect voter fatigue with environmental issues or disappointment with the party’s performance in government.
The poll’s methodology, surveying 1,200 eligible voters over a five-day period, provides a snapshot rather than a prediction. Yet the trend is unmistakable. The AfD’s steady rise, coupled with the decline or stagnation of traditional parties, suggests a deeper shift in German society. The fact that both the Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance and the FDP failed to meet the Bundestag’s 5% entry threshold underscores the challenges new and smaller parties face in breaking through a crowded field.
For many observers, the AfD’s ascent is cause for concern. Germany’s postwar political consensus has been built on a rejection of extremism and a commitment to centrist governance. The AfD’s platform, which includes hardline stances on immigration and skepticism toward the European Union, represents a significant departure from these norms. Critics warn that the party’s rise could embolden similar movements elsewhere in Europe, fueling polarization and undermining democratic institutions.
Supporters of the AfD, however, argue that the party is giving voice to legitimate grievances ignored by the political mainstream. They point to economic anxieties, cultural concerns, and a sense of alienation from the Berlin establishment. “The AfD’s rise is not just about protest—it’s about real issues that matter to ordinary Germans,” one supporter told Bild in a previous interview.
As Germany approaches the next election cycle, all eyes will be on how the established parties respond. Will the CDU/CSU and SPD find a way to reconnect with disaffected voters? Can the Greens and The Left regain lost ground? Or will the AfD’s momentum prove unstoppable?
One thing is certain: the political landscape in Germany has shifted, perhaps irrevocably. As the country grapples with its new reality, the choices made in the coming months will shape not just the next government, but the very future of German democracy.