Week 17 brings us another three Saturday NFL games, and two of them are set to be played in stadiums known to be impacted by the weather at this time of the year. The third game of the day will be played under the dome of SoFi Stadium, but fantasy football managers are right to have some nerves about the weather forecasts in Foxborough, Mass., and Cincinnati. Let’s analyze the weather forecast for the NFL’s Week 17 Saturday games and its potential fantasy impact.
The National Weather Service’s forecasts for the games are up-to-date as of 9:30 a.m. ET on Saturday, Dec. 28, 2024. All kickoff times are ET, and data used is courtesy of TruMedia, as stated. Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots
Kickoff: 1 p.m. Expected Temperature: Low 40s. Showers: 65% chance at kickoff. Wind: 6 mph southerly. The first game of the day, between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Chargers, should be one fantasy managers keep on their radar as a potential concern. This game could see cold weather and rain, impacting fantasy performance. Notably, chances of rain decrease throughout the game, complicate matters for fantasy managers.
Historically, games played between 40 and 50 degrees Fahrenheit have seen about a 5% drop in fantasy output, compared to clearer conditions above 60 degrees Fahrenheit or indoor games. When rain is added, the average drops even more. "On average, games played in temperatures below 50 degrees Fahrenheit and with rain falling at kickoff see about 80.5 fantasy points scored per team," noted by various statistical analyses. This translates to between 15% and 20% less output—far from ideal for fantasy managers. Due to these challenges, Rhamondre Stevenson sees a slight boost, alongside J.K. Dobbins, who was activated this week.
Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. Expected Temperature: High 50s. Showers: 15% chance at kickoff and throughout the game. Wind: 2-4 mph southeasterly. The Cincinnati weather forecast suggests the worst of the weather will miss this game. Rain is anticipated to hold off, but forecasts can change quickly. Fortunately, temperatures remain fair, which lessens the potential impact.
With conditions expected to drop fantasy output closer to 10%, the passing game isn’t set to be significantly hampered. Local weather reports suggest, "Rain is coming to Cincinnati, but it might hold off until after the Broncos and Bengals matchup at 4:30 p.m. ET." Fantasy managers should feel comfortable about this game and its overall impact.
Dome Games (No Weather Impact) - Several games this week will be played indoors, where weather will not be a concern.
- Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
- Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints
- Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
While those games take place indoors, some outdoor matchups deserve consideration. For example, the match between the Chargers and Patriots on December 28 holds just a 40% chance of precipitation at Gillette Stadium, but temperatures should stay above freezing.
Now, onto other notable matchups with minimal weather problems. The New York Jets at Buffalo Bills have rain set for the morning before the game, with mild temperatures—and no major wind concerns—suggesting scoring potential is preserved.
Core offensive weapons can be deployed confidently here, especially for the Bills, who have been racking up points at astonishing rates. A similar story follows for the Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where rain chance reduces during game time.
Conversely, moving forward, those involved with the Dallas Cowboys could face significant weather challenges against the Philadelphia Eagles. Gamers should prepare for over an inch of rain with heavier showers expected. Temperatures will linger low to mid-50s. Rain isn’t the only concern; wind gusts of 30-32 mph could significantly impact deep passing games.
It is likewise rainy for the Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants; this parallel forecasts expect steady rain with gusts nearing 30 mph as well. Here also, fantasy managers should anticipate modifications to their player lineups based on this data.
Finally, as we look at the Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns matchup, rain is on the horizon but shouldn’t fully derail game execution, thanks to manageable wind speeds. Fantasy managers will want to rely on effective strategies, knowing the potential of players like Tyreek Hill and Jerome Ford.
The weather will shape plays this week; ensuring fantasy football lineups reflect these developments is key for success!
