The weather forecast for Jammu and Kashmir has taken a severe turn, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicting widespread rain and heavy snowfall through February 28, 2025. This follows several weeks of dry conditions, during which the region had faced unprecedented precipitation deficits.
On February 26, the valley observed moderate to mild rain and snowfall, signifying the end of the prolonged dry spell experienced during the winter season. According to IMD estimates, the districts of Baramulla and Kupwara received significant amounts of precipitation, providing some relief to the region's water crisis concerns.
The weather was particularly harsh, with the ski resort of Gulmarg reporting up to 33 cm of accumulated snow. Lower altitude areas like Srinagar also experienced downpours, receiving 7.8 mm of rain, with similar levels reported across other districts like Qazigund, Pahalgam, and Kokernag. These conditions have resulted from active Western Disturbances, moisture-laden winds influencing weather patterns directly.
Authorities have been proactive. The director of the Jammu and Kashmir Meteorological Department, Mukhtar Ahmad, emphasized the likelihood of widespread rainfall as the region braces for the harsh effects of these weather patterns. He stated, “The Kashmir region is likely to receive widespread rainfall between February 26 and 28.”
Travel disruptions are expected, primarily due to temporary closures affecting several key routes like Sadhna Pass, Razdan Pass, and the Mughal Road. Travelers have been urged to exercise caution, particularly on the Srinagar-Jammu National Highway where traffic disruptions could occur due to potential landslides and poor visibility from heavy snowfall.
With temperatures expected to plummet, the region's winter is predicted to intensify. Current reports show temperatures around -11.63 °C with lower readings expected on subsequent days. On February 27, temperatures are set to drop even lower, reaching around -16.16 °C. Coupled with high humidity levels, residents face severe conditions, particularly sensitive populations who are advised to take preventive measures.
On the night of February 26, rain and snow were anticipated across not only Jammu and Kashmir but also extending to neighboring regions including Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, indicating a broad weather front affecting multiple areas.
Despite the immediate challenges posed by the weather, there are broader concerns linked to agriculture and the region's future water supply. The prolonged drought during Chillai Kalan — traditionally the coldest period — has resulted in only 20 percent of the average precipitation, heightening fears of inadequate water supplies for the summer months.
With potential crises looming, the government has taken measures to prepare for possible emergencies, ensuring district and tehsil-level officials remain vigilant and responsive to public needs. Nonetheless, with precipitation levels sorely lacking until now, experts are particularly anxious about the ripple effects on agricultural productivity and water availability.
Moving forward, residents and tourists are advised to remain updated on the weather forecasts. IMD's M Hussain Mir commented, “We expect widespread moderate rain, snow, and thunderstorms across Jammu & Kashmir. Heavy snowfall is likely...,” reflecting the serious consideration needed for safe travel and activity planning.
The weather patterns will gradually shift from heavy rains and snows to clearer skies by early March, potentially easing some current concerns. Preparations are underway for upcoming forecasts, and the community is left to ponder the effects of such drastic weather changes on their daily lives.
Overall, as Jammu and Kashmir navigates through this challenging weather period, the resilience of the local population remains strong. Authorities continue to monitor conditions closely, keeping the public informed and safe as they prepare for fluctuated outcomes poised to arrive with the changing seasons.