Poland’s commercial real estate market is experiencing a notable rebound, with expectations for continued growth propelled by increasing investor confidence. According to Przemysław Felicki, the director at CBRE, the investment volume surged to €6 billion in 2023, marking a significant recovery after years of caution among investors.
Over the past year, Poland's commercial property sector outstripped Europe’s broader growth rate of 20%. Felicki attributes this resurgence to various factors including Poland's strategic position within Europe, enhanced logistics capabilities, and the attractiveness of sector-specific investment opportunities. The Polish market ranks third overall in CBRE’s European market attractiveness survey, with Warsaw positioned as the fifth most appealing city for investment.
Investment trends indicate rising interest particularly in logistics, production facilities, living spaces, and data centers, whereas traditional sectors such as offices and retail are witnessing relatively lower engagement. The burgeoning demand for logistics and warehouses can be linked to the rapid evolution of e-commerce and changing consumer behaviors.
"Investors are increasingly focused on logistics and production, as these sectors promise strong growth potential and profitability," Felicki shared. This marks a shift from previous trends, where offices and retail were favored, particularly before the pandemic disrupted normal operations.
Factors influencing investment decisions include location attractiveness, environmental, social, and governance (ESG) criteria, and the potential for rental growth. Felicki notes, “Even though demand remains steadfast, the supply of new properties has not matched this growth due to land shortages and planning restrictions.” Such supply constraints are anticipated to result in rental increases over the coming years.
Investment activity is also being bolstered by local players, as their market share has significantly increased from 2% to 10% amid this recovery. Felicki explains, “Local investors are realizing the potential of the Polish market, viewing it as both affordable and liquid, which enhances its appeal over the long term.”
Despite the challenges, the outlook for Poland’s commercial property market is optimistic. The expectation is for transaction volumes to rise even higher, with 2025 predicted to be another record year. Felicki highlights the significance of Poland's unique advantages — being centrally located, having access to skilled labor, and favorable economic policies aimed at fostering growth.
"We’re seeing Poland not only recovering but repositioning itself as one of the key player markets within Europe,” Felicki stated. “The rising interest from international and domestic investors alike is assuring." Overall, this revival and forecast signify a transformative phase for the Polish commercial property market, and its stakeholders are poised to capitalize on the opportunities presented.