The United Nations Security Council has officially approved the establishment of the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), which will replace the existing African Union Transition Mission (ATMIS) after its mandate ends on December 31, 2024. The new mission is set to play a pivotal role in combating the jihadist insurgency al-Shabaab, which has been wreaking havoc across Somalia for years.
Somalia has secured the commitment of 11,000 troops under this new initiative, with contributions coming from various nations except Ethiopia, whose participation has been met with resistance due to historical grievances and more recent disputes. Somali Defence Minister Abdulqadir Mohamed Nur emphasized the exclusion of Ethiopia, stating, "Ethiopia is solidly excluded from taking part in AUSSOM... it has violated our sovereignty and national unity," reported Voice of America. This marks a significant shift as Ethiopia, previously influential within the region, faces increasing scrutiny by the Somali government.
The momentum for this mission aligns with Somalia's strategy to strengthen its national security framework amid turbulent regional dynamics. The need for AUSSOM arises as the country transitions from ATMIS, which has been operational for nearly two decades, deploying soldiers to stabilize areas ravaged by al-Shabaab’s activities. Mohamed Rabi Yusuf, Somalia's UN representative, noted the necessity of this new commitment, which addresses any security vacuum created by Ethiopia.
The resolution permitting AUSSOM was adopted by 14 out of 15 members of the UN Security Council, with the United States abstaining due to budgetary concerns. This abstention raises questions about the sustainability and funding of the mission, especially since there are no firm guarantees yet on financing mechanisms.
While Somalia is moving forward with AUSSOM, underlying tensions with Ethiopia persist, particularly concerning its maritime agreements with Somaliland, seen by Somalia as encroaching on its territorial integrity. The situation has evolved since January, when these agreements led to accusations of sovereignty violations directed at Ethiopia by the Somali government.
Interestingly, the establishment of AUSSOM also opens the door for increased involvement of Egypt, which has been historically competitive with Ethiopia. During recent discussions, Egypt confirmed its readiness to supply troops, marking what many see as strategic positioning to counterbalance Ethiopia's influence. Egypt’s Foreign Minister remarked post-meeting with Somali officials, expressing Cairo's commitment based on the Somali government’s request for support.
This reshaping of alliances extends beyond mere troop contributions. The Ankara Declaration, brokered by Turkey, was intended to mend the fragile relations between Somalia and Ethiopia and was pivotal to improving bilateral ties for regional prosperity. Despite the positive spin of these diplomatic engagements, experts caution against over-reliance on Ethiopia having its troops remaining within Somalia, as questions of trust harbor persistent strains due to accusations of hostile actions from Ethiopian forces toward their Somali counterparts.
Al-Shabaab remains the central threat to Somalia's stability, conducting deadly attacks, including the devastating strike on Mogadishu’s beachfront, which left dozens dead last August. These attacks showcase the urgency needed for AUSSOM's operationalization, which is tasked with providing stability and enabling humanitarian operations across affected regions.
Beyond the operational planning lies the challenge of funding. The current arrangement allows for reliance on prior funding mechanisms through the UN, but conditions imposed by the international community reveal divisions concerning the viability of immediate deployment and the anticipated effectiveness of AUSSOM. This scenario has led some to predict potential delays or technical rollovers of the existing ATMIS mandate as discussions around troop configurations continue.
Kenya, Uganda, and Djibouti are among the key contributors to AUSSOM, alongside new entrants like Egypt. Kenyan officials affirmed their commitment to maintaining troop presence as part of broader efforts to combat regional terrorism linked to al-Shabaab. Principal Secretary Korir Sing’oei noted the strategic imperative of staying engaged to protect both Somali interests and those of neighboring nations.
The bridging of such multiple parties, including discussions on military responsibilities and the logistics surrounding their deployment, will significantly shape the future effectiveness of AUSSOM. Continued dialogue with the African Union and allied security forces remains imperative to avoid any security vacuum and bolster stability throughout Somalia.
Somalia’s plan for AUSSOM is rooted deeply in enhancing its sovereignty and security strategy against al-Shabaab's threats, and the successful initiation of this mission could serve as a turning point for the nation buried under years of conflict. But with political tensions and the looming presence of past conflicts, the road to stability looks fraught with challenges.
