On December 25, 2024, the Estlink 2 undersea cable, which connects Finland to Estonia, unexpectedly went offline, prompting fears of deliberate sabotage amid rising geopolitical tensions. A suspicious Russian-registered oil tanker, the Eagle S, has been linked to the incident, leading to proactive measures by both Finnish and NATO officials.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte expressed unyielding support for Finland’s investigation, emphasizing the alliance's commitment to enhancing military presence in the Baltic Sea region. Rutte spoke with Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal, reaffirming NATO’s stance against any attack on key infrastructures.
The Estlink 2 cable was reported out of service around 12:26 PM local time, triggering immediate investigations by Fingrid, the Finnish transmission system operator. Arto Pahkin, Fingrid's operations director, confirmed to public broadcaster Yle the potential for sabotage. This incident fits within a troubling pattern of increasing maritime incidents since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The German Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, condemned the series of damages to undersea cables, describing it as "a wake-up call" for Europe. She highlighted the troubling frequency of ships damaging significant maritime infrastructures, often under suspicious circumstances. “It is becoming increasingly difficult to believe these are mere coincidences,” Baerbock stated, as she called for more stringent European sanctions against what is termed the “Russian ghost fleet,” referring to vessels circumventing oil embargoes.
The situation escalated when the Eagle S was detained by Finnish authorities following its suspicious maneuvers near the Estlink 2 cable. The vessel had allegedly dragged its anchor across the seabed where the cable was located, leading to suspicions of direct involvement in the cable’s disruption. This incident is particularly alarming as it marks the second time key undersea cables linking NATO allies have been damaged within two months.
Authorities continue to investigate not only the Estlink 2 incident but also previous cut cables near Sweden and elsewhere. Following the maritime trends, discussions within NATO and the EU have escalated aimed at reinforcing protective measures against hybrid threats targeting Baltic infrastructure.
Reported incidents have included random dragging of anchors by commercial vessels, leading to infrastructural damages. Baerbock emphasized, "Every month, ships are reported to have damaged cables, creating both security and environmental risks.”
"The routine of ships damaging these cables must not be brushed aside as mere accidents," Baerbock noted, urging the EU to expand its sanctions to target additional vessels linked to the Russian oil transport industry.
Adding to the concerns, the EU has condemned any willful destruction of Europe’s key infrastructures. The Council recently welcomed proposals for sanctions against at least 50 additional Russian-linked oil tankers based on their complicity with existing trade restrictions.
The detention of the Eagle S has prompted increased scrutiny over the practices employed by aging vessels purportedly involved with the ghost fleet, with many inquiries converging on their connection to military and hybrid threats.
Safety experts warn about the ramifications for both electricity supplies and digital communications across the Baltic, with cables being lifelines for energy distribution and information exchange among vulnerable states. "The integrity of such underwater infrastructures is imperative for our national security," emphasized Rutte.
For Finland, this incident serves as both a reminder of the fragility of its connections and the growing threats posed by regional tensions. Investigations are expected to provide clarity on the extent of the sabotage and potential measures for future prevention.
Overall, the sabotage of the Estlink 2 cable could signify broader geopolitical strategies playing out beneath the surface of everyday maritime activities. Experts urge cautious vigilance as nations align themselves with either side of the mounting East-West tensions.
