Russia's influence over Eastern Europe has never been quite so stark, especially during the recent electoral cycles seen in Moldova and Georgia. These countries, both former Soviet states, have been caught in the middle of geopolitical tensions, with Russia actively attempting to sway elections and alter political landscapes to maintain its influence.
The Moldovan presidential election, conducted on October 20 and November 3, 2024, showcased this struggle. Incumbent President Maia Sandu, who is pro-European, faced off against Alexandr Stoianoglo, the former Prosecutor General, with the election deeply reflecting the broader East versus West narrative. Sandu's win, which allowed her to serve her second and final term, was reported as the culminating tension between pro-European aspirations and Russian influence. Renato Usatîi, who placed third, took no sides, illustrating the divided loyalties within Moldovan politics.
Although the election saw Sandu's constitutional aspiration for EU membership approved by voters, sparking optimism among her supporters, it also spotlighted significant allegations against Russia. Sandu claimed, “large-scale vote buying” orchestrated by Russian interests threatened the integrity of the democratic process. This echoed findings from the official OSCE report, emphasizing both the positive aspects of the elections yet noting improper use of administrative resources and media bias favoring Sandu.
On the ground, the campaign period turned increasingly tense. Moldovan authorities charted security concerns, attributing acts of sabotage to Russian-trained groups. To counter what appeared to be growing interference, the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada released joint statements opposing Russian meddling. America even went so far as to impose sanctions against local actors, including Evghenia Guțul, the pro-Russian Gagauzian Governor.
Reports of vandalism against key institutions and attempts to illicitly transfer vast sums of money by pro-Russian affiliates followed, causing public alarm. The Moldovan government accused Russia of planning to bus voters to polling stations from its embassy, leading to EU sanctions against alleged accomplice officials.
The atmosphere of fear intensified, with Prime Minister Dorin Recean announcing rising death threats targeting Moldovan citizens as intimidation tactics. The electoral authority also discovered illegal transportation of voters from abroad, mainly targeting those residing in Russia, Belarus, Azerbaijan, and Turkey.
Even Moldovan citizens abroad were swept up in these disturbances. Reports came of bomb threats aimed at polling stations across the UK and Germany during the second voting round, highlighting the lengths to which orchestrated disruption could extend.
Reactions also spilled over internationally as Moldova formally protested to the Russian ambassador about the obvious interference, marking their actions as illegitimate. On the domestic front, Moldovans stated feeling more corrupt than democratic, with local observers cataloguing over 100 illicit activities at voting sites, from unauthorized individuals disrupting processes to attempts to thwart vote secrecy.
During the campaign debates, Sandu did not hold back her accusations against Stoianoglo, labeling him as “a Trojan horse” for external interests wishing to manipulate Moldova. While Stoianoglo retorted by claiming exaggerated concerns around Russian meddling, the tensions within the nation lingered, especially around the disputed Transnistria region.
Transnistria’s complex history adds more layers to this electoral interference narrative. Speakers from this isolated enclave shared their frustrations about Russian troops, describing the Russian forces there as more of an occupying force than liberators, countering Moscow's agenda. This skepticism also manifested among students, women's groups, and environmental activists, highlighting differing generational views on European versus Russian affiliations. Younger residents tended more toward Europe, creating fertile ground for activism amid the older, more traditional demographics.
Notably, as Moldova endured these challenges, Georgia found itself on the same shaky ground. The parliamentary elections occurring on October 26 involved significant Russian interests through the ruling “Georgian Dream” party. This party's dynamics include links to Bidzina Ivanishvili, their founder, who once held Russian citizenship and wealth tied to Russia.
The electoral campaign was suffused with narratives targeting opposition parties through terms such as “foreign agents,” simultaneously colorfully painted by pro-Russian messaging. Georgian Dream captured approximately 53.94% of the vote, enabling them to maintain dominance amid protests and claims of election abnormalities from opposition parties.
Both nations’ experiences paint the picture of growing Russian interference across Eastern Europe, as information warfare and elections intertwined. The Kremlin seems intent on exploiting historical ties with its neighbors to propagate narratives favoring Russian influence over the European path—both utilizing technology and financial resources on these fronts.
Telegram appeared as one of the primary platforms for disseminated pro-Russian content. Observations noted high volumes of activity from Telegram channels—many leaning heavily against pro-European sentiments, warning against supporting EU integration and framing pro-European politicians as puppets for the West. This mirrored the sentiments shared among the pro-Russian factions, especially under allegations of economic hardship and potential military escalation should countries like Moldova and Georgia align with the EU.
For example, Moldova observed around 133 Telegram channels, with the majority openly hostile against Sandu. Georgia, too, faced similar disinformation across its Telegram channels aimed at steering public perceptions during its electoral battle.
Meanwhile, the broader European narrative is becoming increasingly concerned, with the EU already bracing itself for amplified Russian involvement during its 2024 elections. With both Moldova and Georgia at the forefront of this agenda, the intersection of Russian meddling and the pursuit of sovereignty remains focal.
Whether Moldova can stave off such interference and continue its pro-European efforts or if Georgia can sustain democracy amid warnings from within is yet to be fully seen. What is evident is the urgency for both countries to stabilise their political futures amid the looming shadow of Russian influence, which desperately seeks to undermine their democratic aspirations.